10-17-2014 Trading Journal

The bear didn’t have a chance.  The bull simply dragged the bear along in its pursue of height.

The above is the weekly chart.  See how it ended the week escaping the tan rectangular box?  While it didn’t close above the box, it was definitely good enough to call it a win for the bull.

While the market was up, my port had a minor correction which was to be expected after it had defied gravity for most of the week.

I sold $KNDI in the morning when I still had profit to take.  I didn’t like the high open and then a sell-off afterward.  I also bought some $NUGT for bottom-fishing with a GTC hard stop below the lower bollinger band from the daily chart.  I wasn’t stop out by day close.

$LRAD and $AMRN were even for the day with $DMRC, $ORBC, $INFN, and $NUGT closing in the negative territory.

Below are the weekly chart which show more bullish tone except for $AMRN and $NUGT which are more on the fences.

$LRAD weekly chart below::

I like the fact that price closed above the middle line of the long-range Andrew’s Pitchfork (purple lines).

$DMRC weekly chart below:

This week bar completely recovered from last week red bar. Now it just needs to get over the 79 & 89 MA lines to begin the bull move.

$ORBC weekly chart below:

It was a strong green bar above the 79 & 89 MA lines.  Breaking out of $7 resistance will be the next target.

$INFN weekly chart below:

While I was late going in, this weekly bar looks strong for continuing upward momentum.  Price is also above the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$AMRN weekly chart below:

Price was neutral at the bottom.  Price needs to stay above $1 for survival sake.

$NUGT weekly chart below:

What more can I say, it is a catch-the-falling-knife play with a hard stop.  The reason why I decided to play this one is because of last week “almost” doji bar. It could mean a possible bottom. If it bounces from here, I’ll be OK; if not, I’ll be stopped out for sure.

Due to some minor corrections from $DMRC and $ORBC, my port gave back 1.2% for the day with YTD gain at 5.39%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN, INFN, NUGT and 3.6% cash.

I noticed that $IBIO went higher today to close above $3.  While I did not take the trade, I’m happy for those who is sitting on profit.  I’m quite content with the money I made off from $IBIO and was “relieved” to be free from it.  To get back in will cause me to stress out about giving back gain I’ve made.  $IBIO is currently floating on air based on nothing more than their IP portfolio.  Any news of containment of the Ebola over the weekend will cause a gapped down situation in Monday morning.  I for one will certainly wish that this deadly Ebola will be contained over the weekend.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

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The greedy bear made one last pull and took the bull down at the open; but the bull had enough of the BS and climbed back up with such brute force that the bear could not stop the advance no matter how hard it tried.

Price climbed back up in the middle of the tan area which was good.  It also didn’t take out yesterday low which was double-good.  Now, the bull is set up to move higher; but it needs to take out today and yesterday high first.

Today, all positions on board are in green.  I dropped $CERS and bought $INFN and $KNDI.  I also added to $AMRN.

$LRAD finally made a small bounce.  At this point, any bounce is good.

Price did take out yesterday high so I believe we may see a bottom here.

$DMRC continued to surge ahead.

Price is now touching the 79 & 89 MA lines which are also converging into one.  I believe price will simply walk pass this magical lines tomorrow and rally hard in anticipating of next week earnings call.

$ORBC, like $DMRC, has been rallying hard this week despite general market turmoil.

Price is now gunning for $7 resistance.

$AMRN finally broke out of $1 resistance!

I’m glad I added more in the morning.  As you can see in the chart, price is forming a smooth slow curve heading back up.  It will probably be a slow grinding up from here.

I bought $INFN today for the bounce up. I had bought $INFN in the past but got out too early and missed the rise to $11+ from my 9ish entry point.  Now, I see an opportunity to get back in.

Price continued to bounce off the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$KNDI bounced hard after opening lower.

Seeing price took out the opening range, I decided to buy some shares to see if this has leg.

Thanks to all six stocks going up, my port gained 2.4% today and YTD gain at 6.6%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, AMRN, INFN, KNDI and 2.8% cash.

From my other account:

With DOW opened negative and $KNDI opened lower, I decided to close $KNDI position while I still had some gain left.  Turned out it was not a good move hindsightwise.  However, this mishap was more than offset by my “another” fortune of $IBIO gapping up after I got in yesterday at $1.30+.  Without hesitation, I sold at the open to lock in gain once again.  Although I did not buy as much as before, i still enjoyed the gain.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

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The bull, apparently suffered from vertigo, fell over backward and then rolled down the hill.  After vomiting out yesterday’s digestion due to the spinning sensation, it felt a bit better and was able to crawl back up some.

It was an ugly day but yet a redeeming one as well.  The price stayed inside the tan rectangular box and was a green bar that reflected the tenacity of the bull.  There may still be hope for the bull.

I’d another fortunate day.  While $LRAD went down quite heavy in the day, it managed to come back to minimize the damage.

That was a very nice long-tail doji with price closing very near the 79 MA.  If price can take out the high of today bar, it will be a very powerful bullish reversal signal.  In other words, $LRAD may find its bottom today.

Meanwhile, three of my other stocks closed higher for the day despite a down market.

$ORBC had a spectacular price momentum today.  You would think that there were no large market down day just by looking at $ORBC daily chart.

Price obviously cut thru the 79 & 89 MA lines like hot knife thru butter. Imagine where price will go when the general market begins the bull run again.  Something is cooking at $ORBC and I don’t know what it is.  But I don’t mind it ’cause I’m always bullish with their brand new state-of-the-art M2M satellites they have launched with more to launch by year-end.

$DMRC continued on higher which was quite a performance in a down day considered it was a low float stock that was easy to be manipulated.

As you can see, price is approaching the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$CERS is finding its footing giving current virus and baterial infectious climate.

Price actually filled the gap and bounced back up which is a good sign for the bull.

$AMRN was the second stock that was closed negative; but it was a small dip so I’m not going to put a chart on it.

Thanks to stellar performance from $ORBC and $DMRC, the gains were more than enough to offset $LRAD’s drawdown to still bring my port up by 0.5% higher.  YTD gain is now at 4.2%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.3% cash.

From my other account, I bought back a small (10% of original size) number of $IBIO for the bounce.  I also bought some $KNDI to test the water.  Both are in the black after closing bell.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

The market really tried hard to rally; unfortunately, it went out of mojo to maintain altitude.

While price gave back most of the gain during the day, it at least closed higher.

Today, four out of five went up.  It was $LRAD that closed negative.

Nevertheless, price is finding support at the 79 & 89 MA lines.

$DMRC continued to head higher in anticipating of next week earning conference call.  Will the big retailers’ name be revealed?  Do they like the Digimarc barcode?

If price can take out the 79 & 89 MA lines to the upside, we are heading higher.  And if there are positive news regarding the big retailers, we will see a rocket launch soon due to the fact that $DMRC has a super small float of only 6+ million shares.

$ORBC also had a good day with strong momentum behind it.

Price broke out of its tight consolidation and approached the 79 & 89 MA lines to the touching point. Will it simply walk over the lines tomorrow?

$CERS had a spike up day.

Price is now on top of the 79 & 89 MA lines.  If it can find support on these two lines, it will be in good shape.

Thanks to four stocks being up, my port, after offsetting $LRAD drawdown, still came out with a 1.4% gain for the day.  YTD gain is now at 3.7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.3% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

Comments »

And the bear kept on dragging down the bull…

Price is now in the neutral zone (the tan rectangular box).  This is the same area the market struggled b/w March and June before breaking out to the upside.  I didn’t like the fact that the double bottom couldn’t hold.

I was curious about how $IBIO would open.  I was pleasantly surprised that pre-market was up $1.30 (88%).

“Take the money!” I shouted at myself.

Then I realized I could not get out even if I wanted to ’cause my cash account does not allow pre-market or after-hour trading.  So, I crossed my finger hoping the pre-market high would hold thru the opening bell.  No such luck.

Then I had to witness the falling prices (from $2.7x to below $2.3x) in the last five minutes before the opening bell.

“Take the money anyway”  I told myself.

So I put the market order in and sold the rest of my $IBIO at the open.

Why didn’t I wait?

That was because I’d seen too many times where price gapped up and then would spend all day falling back down.  I decided to take the money and saved myself the grief and anxiety of worrying about giving back profit when I wasn’t looking.  I actually felt a sense of relief after taking profit.  In biotech, there is no telling when price will turn on a dime and simply take away your paper gain in a NY minute.  I’ve overstayed too many times and experienced enough vanishing profit to appreciate a generous gift when it appeared without notice.  Sure, price may continue higher but I leave it to those who can bear the pressure.

That was a really nice gap up.  Let’s just hope there is no gap down tomorrow for the sake of those who are still holding.

Today, four out of six positions went up. Unfortunately, $LRAD was not able to maintain gain in the last hour market avalanche.

$CERS finally turned green so I didn’t need to cut losses.  $DMRC and $ORBC were able to maintain most of its gain for the day despite the market waterfall.

The gains from $IBIO, $DMRC, $ORBC, and $CERS were able to offset $LRAD drawdown and still  have a gain of 2.2% for the day with YTD gain at 2.3%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, CERS, AMRN and 10.5% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

The bear wasn’t done yet and the bull could not climb against a slippery slope.

Nevertheless the bull may have a resting place to pause and possibly to bounce as well.  Notice that price today closed right at the August low which is now a support or a double-bottom.  There is a 50/50 the bull may bounce next week.

With fortune blessing, I’d a good day today.  It all started with my attention on $IBIO yesterday.  A small voice in the back of my head said, “Hey, load back $IBIO at 70 cents with the cash you got from selling $KNDI and $CERS.”

But I wasn’t ready to load up on a hi-beta biotech stock in the middle of a down day when my port was getting hammered.  So I passed.  But when I noticed that $IBIO opened higher (> 90 cents) this morning, I checked for news and there were none.  Then I checked for the latest Ebola news to see if this virus had been contained.  It is not.  The guy in Texas died.

“Somebody knows something?” I thought to myself.

I waited a minute or two after the open to see if price would sell back down below 90 cents.  Nope.  Then price started to move to 95, 96, 97 in succession.

That is!  I’m going in.

I started buying ’cause my intuition told me price was going to break out $1 very soon.  Resistance developed around 99 cents but I didn’t care, I just kept buying to build my position up.  After I built up to 50% of my original size.  I stopped.  I thought of adding since I still had plenty of cash left.  Then my cautious side told me to spread it to other biotech such as $CERS and $AMRN.  $CERS was bouncing in the morning so I bought back what I sold.  $AMRN was holding strong at 99 cents to a dollar so I checked the script number for the week.  It was up so I bought back in at a dollar.  If script number can climb over 10,000 per week soon, $AMRN at a dollar is a steal.

$IBIO busted out over $1 after I bought what I needed.  It went as high as $1.16 before falling back down to my entry point.

“Get out at breakeven?” I asked myself.

“Nah, hold on.  Remember this is a cash account, once you get out, you can’t jump back in until a few days later.”

“Ok then. Let’s hold a bit longer,”

Then I got busy with other non-trading business.  Lucky thing I did ’cause price went back above $1 and then fell back down to $1 for the 2nd time in the afternoon.  If I was watching, I might be tempted to get out at breakeven giving the general market was fighting to stay positive at the same time.

When I finally get back to watching the market an hour before the closing bell.  I couldn’t believe my eyes.  $IBIO was climbing  and climbing.  By the time it started to correct after trading to the high of $1.39, I was very tempted to sell some to lock in profit.  My finger was at the mouse button ready to push.  Seeing that the general market was literally falling apart, I clicked the mouse button and 50% of my position I bought this morning was let go.  And so I thought I did good.

“Holly Molly!”

Price began to climb again.

I looked at $CERS and it was down.  “Darn, if I bought more $IBIO instead of $CERS, that would be very nice…”

Yeap, like everyone, sometimes I did get infected with the hindsight bug as well.  “Could’ve, should’ve” started invading my mind.  I reminded myself that I was lucky to have the other 50% which represents 25% of my original position.  Meanwhile, all the time, I was mindful that $LRAD was trading in the positive territory most of the day.  I gave my thanks for a fortunate day while partly ignorant that the Nasdaq dropped like a rock to end the week since I was so focused on the after hour trading of $IBIO which traded to a high of $1.91.  Wow!

I’m posting the weekly chart of $IBIO ’cause this is the only way to appreciate the magnitude of the move today.  “If I could be holding my original size all the way…”  Oop! The hindsight bug struck again.  In retrospect, I did what I had to do giving the overall market sentiment.  I already had three long-term hold so locking in profit on a hi-beta biotech stock was the proper thing to do.  Moving on.

I’m thankful for the $LRAD bounce today.

See how price actually bounced off the 79 & 89 MA lines?

Giving the severeness of Nasdaq drop today, $ORBC actually was holding well despite being a negative for the day.

Per the weekly chart, price was holding well on the 79 & 89 MA lines.

Although $DMRC was down today, it did not make new low like a lot of tech stocks out there.

From the weekly chart above, you can see that price only gave back some of last week gain.  The action of $IBIO reminds me that as long as the stock has a strong binary event that if positive can move price the way $IBIO did today.  I’ve the conviction and confidence that the big retailers will adopt the Digimarc barcode system simply because of the efficiency factor.  If that positive decision is to materialize, $DMRC will move the way $IBIO did today; perhaps even more stronger.

$CERS was a bad trade today and I should have cut the losses when it didn’t bounce.  I’m going to see what happen on Monday before deciding what to do with it.

Thanks to stellar gain on $IBIO and the bounce from $LRAD, my port gained back 2.9% which put my YTD gain at 0.1%.  In other words, I’m back to breakeven.   Btw, this calculation did not account for after hour gain on $IBIO.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, IBIO, CERS, AMRN and 4% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

Without question, the bear had the last laugh today…

From the daily chart above, the underlying uptrend line (blue line) has not been breached yet.  It is, however, getting very close to breaching.  Price needs to bounce from here to keep the bull in good shape.  If not, the next defense is the top of the rectangular box.

Needless to say, my port took a blood bath today as well.

After the open, I sold $KNDI and $CERS positions to cut losses and raise cash.  I’m keeping the other three since they all have binary events coming in b/w November and end-of-year.  I’ll not be shaken out of these positions.

• $LRAD- potential huge orders from two large cities in the Middle East for the mass notification system.
• $DMRC- potential adoption of the Digimarc barcode system by the major retailers
• $ORBC- launching of eleven more new M2M (machine to machine) satellites by year-end on top of recent launches of six new satellites.

But for now, my port suffered a 5% drop with YTD losses at 2.8%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC and 15% cash.

My 2 cents.

My reminder:

Wisdom from Warren Buffet:

“With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you’re right about what, you don’t have to worry about when”

 

Comments »

The market actually fell onto the trampoline yesterday and bounced to quite a height today.

That was a big bad green bar racing back to the 79 & 89 MA lines.  The bull is back on!

Today, my fortune reversed for $LRAD.  Thanks to Cramer mentioning $LRAD, the stock tanked as a result.  Or it could be as simple as big player wanted out to get cash.

Despite not being able to recover like every stocks out there after the Fed announcement of no rate increase, the chart still looks bullish.   Notice that the underlying short-term uptrend line is still intact

Meanwhile, the rest of the gang recovered nicely with $ORBC showing the most enthusiasm.

Due to $LRAD failure to recover (for the day), my port gave back 2.2% with YTD gain at 2.2% as well.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

 

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Fore!  And the falling stocks fell all over the places…

Just when we thought the market could continue on its merry way, the bear pulled the bull by the neck and yanked it backward.  Ouch!

I’d a very fortunate day today.  Despite being bombarded by falling stocks (4 out of 5) in my port, I was saved by the only one that counted the most since I’m overly weighted on it- $LRAD.

$LRAD introduces the LRAD(R) 450XL – The Loudest Long Range Acoustic Hailing Device for its Size and initial order was received from New York National Guard.  With a better and more powerful product that comes in a size that is compatible with almost all military and law enforcement mobile unit, I can see a coming snowball effect on product sales.  It seems like everything is coming into place.  Not to mention that their state-of-the-art mass notification system is also picking up speed in sales.

Chart looks very bullish with today price action.  You could feel that the price wanted to go up bad.  Without the benefit of a rising general market, news of large order can still drive this one up big time.  So, I’m holding and holding.

I sold out all my $IBIO and moved the rest of the proceed to add more $KNDI.  Despite an immediate drawdown on $KNDI, I’m confident that price would eventually pick up and head north when news of China local provinces subsidies are approved.  The weekly chart below show that the overall trend is still up albeit some large swings along the way.

Last week doji bar “may” just be a bottom.  Worse case scenario will be that the weekly 79 & 89 MA offer the next support.

Even with today correction, $DMRC still looked good so far.  The 5 MA line is still a good support here.

With November closing in and $DMRC being inducted into the GS1 partnership. I say there is a high probability that one of the big five retailers testing the Digimarc barcode  is very satisfied.  My patience may be paying off soon.

$ORBC and $CERS are just fighting the general trend like every stocks.

Thanks to $LRAD being a champ today, my port was able to hold off the bleeding to only 0.5%.  YTD gain is now 4.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS (100% invested/speculated).

My 2 cents.

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Market opened higher but slipped on the banana peel once again…

Oop! Market landed on its butt; nevertheless, it was keen enough to land on the 89 MA and the trendlines.  As far as I’m concerned, today was a hiccup.

I’d been eyeing $CERS for awhile so I decided to buy when it opened higher.  Despite the immediate drawdown after I bought, I believe this stock is finding its bottom.

However, I need to see price trades above the 79 & 89 MA lines and not below it.  Let’s see how it fairs this week.

I was surprised to see the strength behind $IBIO and enjoyed the strong rally.  However, being mindful of having gave back gains from $HYGS not too long ago, I decided to become more pro-active in watching the intra-day trend.  After price reached the high of $0.98, I began to watch the 5 & 15 MA lines in the 5 min. chart.  When the 5 crossed below the 15 MA, I started to unload to lock in profit.  When I did not see any meaningful bounce after selling 50% of my position, I began to sell more.  By the day end, I sold 80% of my original position.  Meanwhile, I noticed that $KNDI was rallying hard despite that other stocks were going down.  So, I took the opportunity to use the proceed from $IBIO to buy $KNDI when it started to correct a bit from the afternoon rally.

If you ignored the tall candle wick at the top, $IBIO actually had a strong day.  But the sell off after reaching $0.98 was too strong for me to ignore; so I took the opportunity to sell when the volume was there for me to hit the bids.

Seeing the strong afternoon rally in $KNDI, I felt the intuition to buy it.  The daily chart also looked good for a follow-up bounce.

The combination of the hooking up of 5 MA lines and the two oscillators below also gave me the confidence to buy.

$DMRC tenacity to stay positive all day was impressive.

Notice that the 79 & 89 MA lines are not that far away now.

Unfortunately, $LRAD did not fair well even though it had a great open.  However, I’m not worried about this one at all.

All in all, after adding two stocks today ($KNDI and $CERS), there were only two stocks down in my port.  Thanks to gains from $DMRC and $IBIO, they were enough to offset the drawdown from $LRAD and $CERS to give my port a nice gain of 0.7% with YTD gain at 4.9%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, ORBC, KNDI, CERS, IBIO (100% invested/speculated)

My 2 cents.

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