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Hazard at the top- a spinning top near major resistance

What we have here is a spinning top candlestick pattern for the month of February.  Normally, a spinning top candlestick pattern is just like any other candlestick reversal pattern, it simply offers a possible reversal signal. Nothing is guaranteed and it is merely a precaution.

However, when you have a “monthly” spinning top candlestick pattern at the TOP of an uptrend near the walls of two long-term resistance (formed in year 2000 and 2007), you HAVE to take precaution.  You have to acknowledge that there  may be a greater force in play here.  A force that has soundly defeated the bull in year 2000 & 2007.

The month of March is now the key month to watch.  It may dictate the direction for the rest of the year.  A down month in March may confirm the February spinning top candlestick pattern as a bona-fide reversal signal.  In other words, the walls of resistance are too formidable to overcome.

Look at the SPY monthly chart below:

SPY_Monthly

Did you see the tiny spinning top candlestick bar formed in February?

I will be very mindful of the possibility going into March.  Perhaps a little less tolerance  in  giving the trades more times to establish its uptrend.  Come to think of it, I never have much tolerance with my swing trades anyway except for my position trades.  I’ll be keeping an eyes for ETF such as FAZ, SKF, etc.

Just my 2 cents anyway.

Trade Well!

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Close, but no cigar

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below.

SPY_Daily

It has broken out of the symmetrical triangle to the upside but it could not maintain the upper price level.  Now, it looks like it will close inside the triangle.

If tomorrow fails to break out again and stay above; we may have a consolidation period inside the triangle.

Currently holding LRAD, AMRN, USU, PACB,  SZYM, GLOG, DCTH, CUR, GLUU and 39% cash.

Trade well!

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Can this GLUU stick?

I’m back in GLUU again after bailing out during the stormy day on Monday.

Take a look at the hourly GLUU chart below:

GLUU hourly chart

I’m seeing a potential ascending triangle breakout to the upside.  Two attempts have been made; perhaps, 3rd time the charm?

Stop will the same as my previous ledge @ $2.27.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade Well!

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2nd time a charmer?

I’m talking about buying PACB for the 2nd time to see if it will run again.

I bought PACB not too long ago but left a lot on the table after I took profit.

Let’s see if I can make it up from last time and take home more dough this time.

Take a look at the daily PACB chart below
pacb_daily

Did you notice the round up from the support at the 89 xma line?  I like the fact that it has taken out yesterday high.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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Uh oh! I think I see a bear flag…

Take a look at the bear flag based on SPY hourly chart below:

SPY_Hourly

The bull will need to have a good solid rally tomorrow to stop the bear flag from developing into a full-blown continuation bearish chart pattern by taking out the low of the flag.

Let’s see how tomorrow plays out.

Trade well!

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Can someone pump some air into the ball please?

The bounce was quite firm in the morning until the air started to leak.

Good grief.

Take a look at the SPY hourly chart below:

SPY_Hourly

Did you see how the early morning bounce hit the top of the long-term uptrend line and dropped like a bowling ball from there?  Did you notice the steep of the drop?

It is not very inspiring for a bounce even though Dow Jones is still trading a positive 60+ points.

Look at the daily SPY chart below:

SPY_Daily

Today bar is trading near the bottom of yesterday bar; again, it is not heart-warming at all.   It looks like your significant other is ready to leave you high and dry…

My cash level is now 52%.

Caution is warranted here.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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Today is what I call a bloody falling knife

Look at that BIG RED BAR slicing thru the low of the last 20 days with high volume to boost.

SPY_Daily

With a bloody falling off the cliff  kind of momentum, I can only say tomorrow is not a pretty sight if there is not a bounce to be seen.  However, there are supports from the previous three walls SPY has broken through around the $146 – $148 area.

If there is no bounce tomorrow, I’ll continue to cut out swing positions to reduce loss.

There is no reason to have a majority of your money ties up in stock if the market is showing a violent turn.

I’m currently 47% cash and will raise it to 60% if the knife continues to fall.

Remember, the more cash you have, the more stocks you can buy back cheap when market starts to turn.

Just my 2 cents.

Trade well!

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Surprise inside a surprise

What?  $33?

No way!?

Wasn’t it trading at around $50 last week?

Wouldn’t that be a $17 drop instead of $6 drop this morning for missing earning expectation?

I was confused!  I bet you were too!

Yeah, I’m talking about DDD.

3-2 split at the day of earning report?!?

Hello?

Anyway, as bad as this decision was, I thought I was giving an opportunity to buy back some DDD on the cheap!

After coming to my sense, I bought starter position on DDD under $31 with stop below intra-day low of $30.28.

When an opportunity comes for a chance to catch a falling knife, I’ve got to take it!

Remember, clap your hand together (parallel to the face of the blade) to catch the falling knife; otherwise, you will lose your fingers!

This is a high risk trade so I know I may need a bandage later.

Trade well!

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Pass the GLUU please

GLUU looks like it is setting up for a mighty bounce.

Ok, we may have a catalyst giving this news here- Nevada legalizes first interstate online poker.

Take a look at the hourly GLUU chart below:

GLUU hourly chart

Did you see how the price action break out of the downward trend-line and then consolidated into a ledge?  The way it is looking now, price action wants to go up.  If it takes out the ledge high of $2.38, I will add more.  If it takes out the low of the ledge at $2.27, I will cut my loss and move on.

I particularly like the big ass up bar right before the ledge.  Sometimes, after a spike like this with higher than average volume; it may be a start of a runner if the catalyst is substantial enough; on the other hand, it could be one of those “spike and ledge sell pattern” within a bearish trend.  This is why it is important to see which side of the ledge price action is going to take out next week.

Take a look at the daily GLUU chart below:

GLUU daily chart

Did you see how it was bouncing… bounce once on mid-Nov 2012; bounce again on early Feb 2013;  the 3rd bounce came off from a higher ground and stayed within the “upward” Andrew Fork lower line.  In other words, I see a good risk/reward trade here as long as I use the ledge on the hourly chart as my guidance for protective stop.

Btw, I didn’t get into this trade until the last 15 minutes on Friday when I saw a spike up.  This last minutes spike up reflected the price action upward bias inside the ledge; that was why I bought in my starter position.  If it had spiked downward instead, I would have passed and skipped the trade.

Trade well!

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Is that… a dead cat bounce? (with after-hour update)

I sure hope not!

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below.

SPY_Daily

Did you see that wall around $151.50?

Some will say this wall is nothing.  A line drawn from a single pivot high with only one down bar from each side, what kind of wall is that?

Exactly my point!

If $SPY cannot overcome this so-called dime store wall by end-of-day, we have got a serious problem.  This rally may be a dead cat bounce after all.

Well, the day is not over yet.  Let’s wait and see…

Despite a 100 points rally, I feel price action is meandering around all day…

Currently long LRAD, AMRN, USU, CCJ SZYM, URA, DCTH, DNN, and 36% cash.

Trade well!

EDIT: After hour update

Well, I’m glad to see SPY has closed strong today.  It is way above the dime-store wall! 🙂  Nah, today is not a dead cat bounce.  We may see higher price action next week.

SPY_Daily

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