Don't pay dollar to keep 2 cents when wrong. Cut your losses quickly. Trade what you see, not what you think.
Joined Oct 26, 2011
719 Blog Posts

Can $CERS break out of its long-term resistance?

I’m betting that it will.

Take a look at the monthly chart below:


Currently, price action is bumping against the 89xma as well as the resistance that go way back to the high of April 2004.  However, from the look of it, price action has been “grouping” upward on a monthly basis recently.  I’m sure all it takes now is a little nudge and price action will just explode skyward.  Skyward!  Uh Oh!  You’ve caught me using the “pumping” word…

Anyway, my interpretation is that the chart looks bullish.

Below is the weekly chart:


This week bar is very strong which may be setting up the stage for next week big push to break out of the monthly resistance.

Below is the daily chart:


See how it bounces off near the 79 sma and the 89 xma?  The 5 sma is now crossing over the 15 sma.  All of these technical signals just give me more confidence to add more today.

Fundamentally speaking, instead of rehashing of what others have done, I’m going to paste an excerpt from (gawd forbids) a contributor in Seeking Alpha…

GZ: Cerus Corp. (CERS) is a very interesting company. It developed a blood pathogen inactivation system, called INTERCEPT, for all three products derived from blood donations – platelet concentrates, plasma and red blood cell concentrates. A key milestone that the company recently reported was an agreement with the FDA allowing it to file for premarket approval (PMA) for the platelet concentrates in the U.S. without having to do another phase 3 trial. Assuming an approval, this shortens the time to commercialization by one to two years.

Notably, the company is already selling its INTERCEPT Blood System in quite a few countries, mainly in Europe. All of Switzerland uses the product for platelet concentrates. Much of France uses the system. A number of centers in Germany, Belgium and other countries use it. INTERCEPT is a revenue-generating product for an unmet need because emerging pathogens, viruses in particular, might be penetrating the blood supply, while bacterial contamination of platelet concentrates, though rare, still kills patients.

Once the authorities that regulate the blood supply look at INTERCEPT, it becomes a no-brainer. However, these are typically bureaucratic government organizations, and sometimes it takes a crisis, as it did in Switzerland with the untimely death of a child who was administered platelet concentrates contaminated with bacteria, to get INTERCEPT approved and used.

There’s no real blockbuster here in the sense that the company will end up with billions in revenue from this product after it gets more approvals. But Cerus is a relatively risk-free and an incrementally positive investment that I see growing steadily year over year. I think approval in the U.S., possibly in the second half of next year, would be a strong catalyst for the stock.

TLSR: Could these systems be used in the field, such as in developing countries, as easily as they could be used in a modern clinic?

GZ: Yes. Basically, INTERCEPT is a kit with bags for treatment and for storage of the final product, and what’s called an illuminator, an ultraviolet light that catalyzes the reaction between the additive and the DNA of pathogens, which are prevented from replicating. All that is needed is an electrical supply and other basic equipment for blood handling-refrigeration for plasma and red blood cells. Platelets are kept at room temperature. The really big markets are the big blood centers-the American Red Cross, the New York Blood Center and others.

This time around, I’m going to “try” to sit on this position for a longer-term hold…

My 2 cents.


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