Today Portfolio Adjustment (05-15-2013)

Today was a day to roll-the-dice.

Market opened down and then forged ahead with a hiccup during the day.

Meanwhile, I was, again, shaken out 80% of my $GLUU position when it turned south on the get go.  Out of pure habit, I just dumped my $GLUU in block as price tanked.  Later on, when I wasn’t looking, price action took off to the upside.  Not to be cheated out of my position, I bought back 80% of my original position at a higher price.  I like $GLUU as a potential long-term position; but I’ve yet to make up my mind.  The future is all about tablets and mobile phones; I don’t see it any other way.  $GLUU is all about gaming in mobile devices.  The other side of the coin is that competition is fierce; nevertheless, $GLUU has a brand and experience.

I’ve a hard stop on my $KERX position and it was taken out.  Glad to rid of it ’cause I don’t like to see my swing trade position to be in red for too many days.

$MNKD finally made my “chase” two days ago worth the effort.  It took off big and I added more after it took out the $5 resistance.  When the normal retracement after the initial burst was done, I added some more in the low $5.xx area.  $MNKD is a high risk trade at this point for it is still waiting for FDA approval for its insulin inhaler.  This could be a big winner if they can get FDA approval; who want to use needle for insulin if they can inhale instead?

$FB is reminding me of $SZYM.  Price just would not take traction on the upside.  When price took out the low of two days ago, I put a stop below the intra-day low to cut losses if the bounce failed.  The bounce failed and I was stopped out.  Moving on.

$NVAX was also another one that went the wrong way.  Instead of putting a stop near intra-day low which would guarantee a filled, I decided to give this one a bit more time by placing a GTC stop below the trendline.  If it bounces tomorrow, I will be fine.

I was watching $AAPL waterfall and kept telling myself it was too late to short.  However, when price took out the 50% fib retracement, I decided to short since my risk would be above $425.00, a tight stop literally.  Well, to my surprise, price took out the $425 level and I was stopped out.  When price continued upward, I took that the $425 Fib 50% line support was still in effect.  So I bought some with a stop below $425.00.  By market close, seeing that price did not do a waterfall, I added more hoping for a big bounce tomorrow.

Well, $AMRN had a hiccup today and my portfolio suffered a minor bump as a result.  Oh well…  I can’t help but notice that my portfolio contains quite a bit of high beta positions.  Eventually, I will either get to see my stock god with my head on the block or sit on the white cloud with a big smile on my face.  Hmmm….

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, TINY, CERS, MNKD, GLUU, AAPL, NVAX and 30% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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$AAPL has taken out the Fib 50% retracement @ $425.00 instead of bouncing off here.  A failure of a Fib support is as significant as a bounce off it.  It may be too early to say that the 50% retracement fails at $425.00 when there are still time for $AAPL to bounce back up above that line.  However, any further drowndraft away from the $425.00 line will signify a Fib 50% support failure.

I’ve initiated a small starter position (using stock and put option) based on this thesis and will see how it fairs by the end of day.  If price comes back up above $425.00, I will cover and take my small losses.

My 2 cents.

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Today was a “gotcha” day.

Market opened higher and never looked back.

Out of the four chases I bought yesterday, $CERS and $CUR were doing good.  I took profit on $CUR when the daily price bar looked like a shooting star in development.  Although it hadn’t been confirmed by tomorrow price action, I decided I didn’t want to wait around for it.  So I took my money and run.  However, $CERS bar looked strong and solid; therefore, I’m holding this one.

Seeing that $MNKD and $KERX were struggling in the morning, I placed a stop losses order on both of them below the intra-day low for protection in case the downdraft persisted.  Fortunately, I wasn’t stop out for neither of them.

After browsing the charts, I bought $GLUU, $FB, and $NVAX for the swing trade.  By day close, I’m only taking small heat from these positions.  I’m going to give them a day or two to see if price action will take traction to the upside.

$AMRN, $LRAD, $TINY continued to rally onward; together with good price action on $CERS, my portfolio continues to march forward.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, TINY, CERS, GLUU, FB, KERX, NVAX, MNKD & 30% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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$NVAX chart also shows a bounce after touching the uptrend line.

Take a look at the daily chart below:

Both momentum indicators are now point up along with the 5 ma line.

A bounce is possible at this point; hence,  I bought a starter position.  This is also my prefer play in light of the bird flu situation.

My 2 cents.

 

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$FB chart looks like it is making higher low if we can get a bounce from here.

Take a look at the daily chart below:

The over all trend is still up and a bounce may be in the card.

I bought $FB looking for a resumption of the uptrend to take out the high @ $32.51  established in Jan 28th.

My 2 cents.

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$GLUU looks like it is repeating price action movement of early April.  A dip below base line of $2.75 and a bounce back to the upside. Meanwhile, the 79 moving average line is trending up slowly.

Take a look at the chart below:

Both momentum indicators are also pointing up.

I bought a starter position and added more afterward.

I like to see price heads back up to the last pivot high of $3.25.   Not expecting a big move, hence breakfast only.

My 2 cents.

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Today was a lack of conviction day.

Market open negative but that was just the outer appearance only.

However $AAPL looked strong pre-market so I was ready to “get-the-hell” out of my put option at market open.  Lo and behold, $AAPL opening price actually dropped at open so I was able to get out with only a scratch.  Whew!

$MNKD looked strong pre-market even after a strong Friday up day.  After reviewing the chart, I can see more potential on the upside; therefore I decided to “chase” this one.  I bought starter position not too long after open.

$CERS opened strong and I wanted to buy in.  But the price was high at open so I waited.  I didn’t have to wait long since price dropped back down to the low $4.9x rather quickly.  I took the opportunity to buy a starter position and then continued to add as price climbed.  I am in the money by end-of-day.  Let’s see if I’m corrected to buy this one when tomorrow comes.

Since $AAPL opened strong, I bought a starter position.  But being mindful of the negative DOW, I placed a stop order below intra-day low and it was taken out soon afterward.

I also placed a stop order on $IMMR below Friday low and got stopped out as well for small losses.  Unlike The Fly who believes in $IMMR to the core, I did not have the conviction to hold.  By end of the day, The Fly wins again on $IMMR.  His conviction is strong and unparalleled.

Regarding $SZYM, please read my previous post since I covered my trading log there.  The quick summary is simply that I didn’t have the required conviction to hold this one thru volatility.

I stumbled on $CUR during chart browsing and I liked the cup & handle chart formation.  Price action looked like it wanted to go break out soon so I bought a starter position and later added more.

$KERX also looked promising and I had been watching this one for awhile.  I finally bite the bullet and bought a starter position. By end of day, I am in the money.  Thank you!

Except for $AMRN who continued to rally nicely today, I did not have a banner day like The Fly or others.  My portfolio gain today was modest. However, my portfolio is a sum total of my decisions and I feel that, in due time, I will have my days.  Both $AMRN and $LRAD will be the highlight of my portfolio by year-end.

While the rabbits are running fast and fury ahead of me, I’m a tortoise who just keep on moving despite some minor setback.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, TINY, CERS, CUR, KERX, MNKD and 37% gain.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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Despite a negative DOW, there are a lot of short squeeze happening all around. The Fly and his team are raking in gain left and right.

However you need to be fast and nimble to take advantage of these momentum plays.  If you are, chasing can be rewarding if you are early in the game; otherwise, quick gain can become quick loss when you are not looking.

If you want to chase but is not so nimble, I suggest you use a stop based on intra-day low for protection.

For myself, I bought $CERS, $KERX, $MNKD, and $CUR at higher price which definitely fell into the category of “chasing”.  I picked these because the charts looked good for further breakout.  But I’m also aware of the need to be quick on cutting losses here.

For my $SZYM trade, truth be told.  I was shaken out of my $SZYM early in the morning for wanting to lock in my gain.  Based on the turn of event later in the morning (hindsight), it is safe to say that the short was getting nervous and embarked on a short campaign to drive the price lower which stopped me out.  But the downdraft was short-lived.  Buyers began to come back and drove the price back up which caused the shorts to cover en masse.  I bought back some at the low $10.xx but not enough to partake on the great momentum later in the morning.  I was away from my desk!  Later, I chased the price by buying on breakout of the intra-day high @ $10.7x.  Priced proceeded to head higher to $11.00 and I added a bit more.  Unfortunately, all good things don’t last for too long.  Price began to fall and I moved my stop quickly to lock in gain for 50% of the buy-back shares.  I was stopped out later.  As price continued to decline, I sold another layer for breakeven to bring me back to starter position.

So far, the chase on $SZYM had brought me a small gain which I considered a waste effort.  Yes, if I had held on to my original position from the morning, I would have made a lot more; but I learned not to think like that anymore.  Once I was out from my early shake-out, $SZYM became a new play with its own risk profile for my re-entry.   You can’t let the “coulda, shoulda” affect you as a trader; otherwise, you can paralyze yourself with remorse and self-criticism that you may end up not trusting yourself in the future.

As a trader, you MUST learn to trust yourself regardless of past decisions you made.  The market is hugely volatile and will take no prisoner.   So, accept your decision and move on.

So far, my chase on the above named stocks have been neutral at best.

There you have it.  If you are thinking that you are missing the boat by not chasing, you can rest easily that it is not the case here.

Be careful out there!

My 2 cents.

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Last time, I talked about bringing intensity to the thought process in order to amplify the mind power.  While this is simple to understand in theory, it is going to take a lot more to pull intensity out of thin air to power your thought process.  In my Grand Canyon trip, it was a matter of survival; therefore, my will to survive bring forth the intensity I needed to push myself onward.  Without the will, I would just lie down and give up.

As a trader, how do we bring forth our will to raise intensity to our thought process so we can follow through with the proper trading process to succeed in trading?

Before I go on, I like to remind everyone that intensity in thought process is a double-edge sword.  If the intensity lies on good intention with a positive thought process, you can create wonderful things; on the other hands, it can bring darkness to your life that are filled with sadness, sickness, and destruction (of self and other) if the intensity lies on bad intention with a negative outlook of life.

We already know how to bring forth intensity automatically by getting emotional about things or events.  If we are happy, our day lightens up more than normal; that is intensity.  If you encounter a bad news that affects you deeply, your day is filled with sorrow, sadness, and anger; that is intensity.

Ok I get it.  So how do we summon intensity to help our trading mind without getting emotional about things.  As you’ve already told us zillion of times, emotion is bad for trading!

Knowing that you can summon intensity with the emotion gives you clue that intensity is yours to take if only you know how to tap into it.

Ok, how?

By using the power of focus on your thought process.  You summon your will to “focus”.  When you get emotional about something, your thought process is being “focused” on one thing.  The only one thing that you are emotional about.  Because of the mind & body relationship, the intense focus of your thought process spills over to your body and cause you to have a body reaction such as butterflies in your stomach, an ecstatic episode, etc.

Your will is your 100% commitment to a single thought process that overrides other thought processes in your head.  Even your natural mind (aka ego) do not have enough power to overcome it.

In my Grand Canyon example, I was 100% committed to survival.  I wanted to survive so much that I found a solution to fight off the weakness of my starving body by focusing only on my foot and the one step movement.  There were no other thought than my foot and the one step.  I was free of my ego and I didn’t even know it.  By the time I was at the top, I didn’t care how I look or how I appeared to others (caring about what other people think is the ego domain). I grabbed anyone who walked by me, which was something I wouldn’t normally, and asked for information.

However, in our normal trading day, we are far from fighting for physical survival.  We are only fighting for a number that resides in our banking system- money.  Most of us aren’t foolish enough to put 100% of the money into the stock market.  Most will put aside money for general living expenses and invest some into the market.  While losing the money allocated to the stock market may put a dent to your life-style, it is not going to kill you or put you on the street.  Hence, most lack the will to draw on the intensity to the thought process to improve trading success.

“Oh well, I don’t need the money right away, I can wait out the drawdown for all the stocks in the portfolio,” was the usual thought process for a lot of people.  Basically, a lot of us don’t mind being a bagholder.

Of course I mind!

Ok, let me clarify.  A lot of us prefer to take the risk of being a bagholder than to take the effort to do the right thing by cutting losses quickly.

Hey you!  What about your $AMRN and $LRAD trades?  Ain’t you a bagholder on them as well?

Oop! You got me there!

But there is one difference between my being a bagholder on $AMRN and $LRAD and most bagholders in general.  I’ve “assigned” $AMRN and $LRAD as  position trades with the express purpose of waiting out their fundamental success from the very beginning.

Yes, my position trades on $AMRN and $LRAD are underwater from my re-entry point but I’ve done my research and am willing to allocate a percentage of my portfolio for “speculation” purpose.

Meanwhile, s lot of bagholders hold ALL their stocks in their portfolio and ride the whole portfolio down along with the general market correction.  In my humble opinion, this is poor portfolio management,

Do you see the difference?

Like I said, most people only have their investment portion of their money in their portfolio; therefore, while they don’t like the pain of the drawdown of all their stocks in the portfolio, the drawdown won’t kill them.

“I can wait it out.” is the usual response.

It is your money and it is your freedom to  manage it the way your ego wants it.

But do you catch my drift here?

There is absolutely no incentive for most people to summon their will to become a better trader/investor.  Nada!

Simply because the effort is very hard.

It is very hard to focus intensely on the proper trading thought to overcome the ego desires to be right.

It is very hard to maintain the focus on the proper trading thought to overcome the ego desires to be right.

It is very hard because it will require a lot of your energy and commitment to stay focus.  Most people will prefer to engage in other forms of entertainment than to waste it on trading discipline.

For all I know, you work very hard during your day and you just don’t have the energy and time to maintain the focus for the trading effort.

The point I’m making here is that to have a shot at becoming a successful trader/investor, you have to take the extra miles to get there.  And most successful people know that.  Those who make millions or billions in the business world know that; that is why they hire the best money manager they can find to manage their money.  They know they don’t have the time to become a successful trader on their own.

But if you want to manage your own money, you have to step up.  You have to summon the will to focus on the proper trading process and do the right thing.

The intensity is there for you to take it to your trading mind.  You just need to take the effort to focus on it.

At the end of the day, the question you have to ask yourself is, “do you want to take the effort to overcome the inertia and your natural mind to become a successful trader?”

It is all up to you.

You are what you think.

Your reality is a sum total of how you think.

You can enhance your reality by bringing positive intensity to your thought process or you can let your reality stay the same by remaining in the same thought process you have now.

But even then, spending the time and hard work can only increase your probability of success.  It doesn’t guarantee success.  Your ego is a very powerful entity.  You may think you have it under control using the intensity I’ve discussed. But your ego has patience.  It can wait for your moment of weakness.  Jesse Livermore, one of the past great trader in our financial world, succumbed to his ego at the end.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  Keep it simple.  Just bring enough intensity/focus so you can bypass your natural mind to cut losses quickly.  Cutting losses quickly is by far the most important and yet a simple action to perform on your way to become a successful trader.  As we all know, simple is not the same as easy.

My 2 cents.

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Today was a recovery day.

Market opened with a yoyo fashion.

I like The Fly’s thesis on $IMMR and the chart looked good.  I bought after the open.  As price continued to advance, I added more.  Alas, it didn’t last.  As price started to turn and took out the $14 support line, I began to wonder if I had bought too early.  Once price dropped below $13.80, I had it.  I reduced position size to cut losses and wait for better climate before jumping back in with both hands.  I like the fundamental thesis but not enough to hold it as a position trade even though this is a position trade for The Fly.  In summary, even though I picked a stock somebody like, I still need to trade it according to my own style.

$SZYM continued to run higher after open and I added without hesitation.  When it took out the $10 resistance price line, I added more as well.  Seeing that price action is still positive after the cup and handle breakout, I feel more comfortable holding this one without taking quick profit for now.  I may hold this as position trade if price continue to advance higher.

I saw RaginCajun’s alert on $TSL and $YGE in twitter and decided to jump in on $YGE because I traded this one before.  The risk was low with stop below yesterday low; hence my easy quick decision to jump in after seeing the alert.  Price continued to advance after I got in so I added more.  I started using a trailing stop to protect profit seeing that today is Friday and I was fearful of an en masse profit-taking that would take away my profit when I wasn’t looking.   After getting stopped out, $YGE headed back up before close.  Oh well.  I’m not going to complain about taking profit from a swing trade.

$TINY earnings report reflected that their book value is higher than its current market cap.  Seeing that the market would eventually take price action back to the book value, I added more.  Unfortunately, price action decided to take a yawn and went back to sleep.  Oh well, since this is my long-term position trade, I left it alone.

I saw $AAPL price action tracking in negative territory even though the DOW had recovered back to positive area; this was not a good sign per my book.  I decided to buy a June 7th 455 put option for a roll-the-dice play.  Let’s see where my dice rolls Monday morning.

Meanwhile, $AMRN, $LRAD, and $SZYM were all trending higher today.  Because I’ve large position on these three stocks, my portfolio recovers nicely today.

Current holdings:

AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, TINY, IMMR and 38% cash.

@tradingmy2cents

The trades I made in the journal were time-stamped in twitter

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