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Monthly Archives: February 2013

The market has a surprise for you

If you look at the daily SPY chart below, the sky is the limit.  Price action has all that empty space above to float around.  Where is the resistance?  One may ask.

What resistance?


Notice that price action has fallen below the middle line of the Andrew Fork uptrend; this may just be price action way of saying momentum is slowing down a bit.  Yet the overall trend is still UP.

Now look at the monthly chart below:


Whoa!  Where do those giant walls come from?  Surprise! Surprise!

Well, they are the giant walls of 2000 and 2007.  My money says these walls are very tall and resistance could be formidable.

From a short-term perspective, we still have room for the uptrend to continue before these walls come into sight.  For 2013 to be a significant bullish year, these two walls have to be taken out the sooner the better; otherwise, a major correction may be on the horizon since March 2014 will be clocked at the 5th year of the bullish cycle.  Please see my post here regarding this long-term cycle.

I’m currently semi-bullish with 37% cash.

Oh yeah!  I’m still smarting from that %*%$! ETRM bet that has set me back one step.  Holy Smoke!  Did I just cuss? Pardon my manner!

Don’t worry, I still have eleven months to this year to bank coins.

Trade well!

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Market gives and market takes…

Hey, I made money on $MJNA, Yay!!! (market gives)

Ouch! I lost money on $ETRM.  (market takes)

And that is the way the market works!

The trick is to hold on to the gain the market gives you without letting the market takes back too much.  To do that, we need to wrestle with our greed.  Yes, you heard me.  By wrestling with greed, you are actually taking action to prevent greed from dominating your trading decision.  If you don’t wrestle with your greed, then you are allowing greed to dictate your trading decision which oftentimes will decimate your portfolio.

There were moments in the last two days when I wanted to add to my $ETRM position; but a voice in the back of my head said, “Hey, I think you’ve enough.  Don’t let your greed control you.  This trade is a gambling bet waiting on release of data.  If you want to gamble big, go to Vegas; at least, they comp you with free room…

Thanks goodness I backed off.  The fact that I backed off meant I wrestled with greed.

If $ETRM still trades at the after hour price of $1.44; my loss here almost offsets my gain in $MJNA- market gives, market takes.

In the overall scheme of thing, I consider myself lucky.

Trade well!


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The price/momentum divergence in the daily $SPY chart

The picture below tells it all:


Notice that while price continues to trend up, the momentum indicator below is trending downward.  Will price be correcting soon?

I’m getting cold feet.  I’m now 50% cash; however, don’t mind me because I can be overly cautious from time to time.

I will watch the resistance line @ $151.42 which is the high established in Feb 1st.

Trade well!

Edit: I’m currently holding LRAD, AMRN, USU, ETRM, & EMAN & 50% cash

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