Don't pay dollar to keep 2 cents when wrong. Cut your losses quickly. Trade what you see, not what you think.
Joined Oct 26, 2011
719 Blog Posts

The dreaded evening star at the Fib 61.8% resistance point

Oh no! Evening star at resistance point!  Run! Run! The sky is falling!

Ok, I may have exaggerated a bit on the “run, run” side of it; but seriously, you have to be cautious and on guard when you see this pattern at a key Fib resistance point.

Yesterday, I postulated that we could either have a breakout day or Fib resistance day.  Although I was leaning on the breakout day, hence my moving more cash to stock, the market showed its hand by not only confirming a resistance day but also giving us an evening star reversal pattern to boost.

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:


Did you see how today price closed below the 61.8% retracement?  Now, just because we have an evening star candlestick pattern doesn’t mean we are going down for sure tomorrow; but it does mean the probability of a down day is high.

The only good thing I see in the chart that “may” stop the down slide tomorrow is the support of the blue 79 simple moving average line.  If that support line holds, we may have a failed reversal.  On the other hand, the market could easily slice through the line like hot knife to warm butter.

In summary, tomorrow is cautious day.

Today, I got busy again.  Yesterday I got busy buying up stocks for possible breakout; today I got busy unloading stocks because I couldn’t find the breakout.  I dumped NOK (why did I choose NOK over RIMM when RIMM had been so good to me in Nov?), EXK, WPRT and reduced position size on GLOG & SZYM.  I sold DDD & SSYS for profit in the morning but ended up buying back DDD by end of trading day.

I also bought my way back in RIMM during the day so I could have an open position for possible more run on it.  I traded RIMM during the day and was able squeeze into a position with a net profit to cushion tomorrow price action.  You can see my daily trading activities here @followtheprice.

For those who are keeping track, AMRN & LRAD continues to drag my portfolio down.  Since these are position play, I usually ignore them during the day so they don’t interfere with my daily trading activities.

Now, I am holding only AMRN, LRAD, RIMM, USU, SZYM, DDD, EMAN, GLOG & 33% cash.

Depending on tomorrow price action, I may continue to raise cash as I see fit.

Trade well!

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