That’s right, a falling dead cat from the dead cat bounce.
Unless there is a significant rally later on to move price beyond half-way point of yesterday down bar; it is my opinion that today is the bear catching its breath after a speedy run yesterday. Yeah, yeah, I got bumped out of my SKF and TZA in the morning ’cause I didn’t want to see a big red numbers on my position. I like to keep these red numbers small; so I used tight stops and they got filled.
But don’t worry; getting out of a position at a loss only mean that I’m willing to take a “hard” loss (as opposed to paper loss) while waiting for price to regain traction on the direction I’m betting on. And if price action decides to take the opposite direction of what I like to see; fine by me because I’m already out with the hard loss. Hell, I may even go long if that is what the price action wants to go.
But for now; I see nothing here to refute the downward bias from yesterday Big Ass down bar. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the daily SPY chart below:
By the close of the day, it couldn’t even close above the 38% retracement point…
Good Hunting!
Current cash position: 75%
The remaining 25% sit in the long-term portfolio
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Yeah, I’m conflicted about the whether or not to hold $TZA over the weekend. Still deciding.
If you are conflicted that mean you are in doubt; as the old sayings go… when in doubt, get out.
Perhaps the late hour price action may give you conviction one way or the other.
Short the E-mini at the pivot-point line (1329.70) which shows strong resistance. Have a tight stop above this PP.
Let’s see if the dead cat fall onto my lap by end of trading day…
Ooop! Stopped out for a small loss.
Got to give the bull credit for trying very hard to come back. But I will remain 75% cash over the weekend. The weekly SPY bar is looking like a long-tail doji.
The battle continues next week.
Nice note on the retracement. For me when we have days like yesterday I want at least a 50% minimum and prefer a 61.8% Fib retracement, otherwise I think the bears are still in control.