I’m going to ask for some input from the blogosphere with this issue.
I am a firm believer that a simple system is more robust than a more complex system. This means that a simple system is less likely to be curve-fit and more likely to survive changing market regimes without a major breakdown.
What I’m am [...]
Last week I wrote about the edge that develops when the market makes consecutively lower closes. Excessive bearishness was the soup du jour, and yet the study showed a bullish edge.
Today (Wednesday) marks three consecutive higher closes, and the soup du jour is clover (bulls love clover), so I want to take a look for [...]
For the most part, I have been Mr. Nice Guy, during my almost 3 years of financial blogging. I have chosen the “You can lead a horse to water…” approach, rather than force-feed information to those who are either unable or unwilling to understand and accept it. I have provided gifts, if you will, but [...]
Within a few days, there will likely be much ado about the 50 day simple moving average crossing back above the 200 day simple moving average on the SPX. This is a well-known technical signal and many pundits are likely to begin mentioning it.
I decided to test its past effectiveness, if for no other reason [...]
Part 4 will focus on using Bollinger Bands for exits.
Specifically, if the bar closes outside the upper (long entry) or lower (short entry) bands, the trade will be exited on the open of the next bar. This is a very basic exit, and could easily be tweaked. For example, an exit could triggered if the [...]
As I am running out of time to get this information out for Lazy Man to digest before the market opens, I am going to report on only one exit tonight: the RSI(2) exit.
I had to make some minor changes in the way the testing was performed. In prior tests, all trades were executed at [...]
Part 1 outlined the purpose of this series and established baseline results for the long entry when paired with a time-based exit, and again when paired with an EMA cross.
In Part 2 I show the results of using the short entry coupled with the same exits (time-based and an EMA cross).
At the end I include [...]
