The top 5 ranked Fidelity Sector Funds continues to get more and more defensive.
As of Friday’s close, Air Transportation has dropped out of the top 5 and landed in the 7th position. Pharmaceuticals has been rising and now occupies the top 5, and Utilities and Telecom now occupy the top 2 spots.
- FSUTX (Utilities)
- FIUIX (Telecom and Utilities)
- FBIOX (Biotechnology Portfolio)
- FBMPX (Multimedia)
- FPHAX (Pharmaceuticals)
Biotechnology is very very close to getting bumped out of the 3 spot by Multimedia, but that is due to Biotechnology being volatile, which gets a fund punished in the rankings.
The Fidelity Sector Fund Rotational System is up 12.8% for the year vs. a buy and hold $SPY return of 11.1%.
Hi Woody, do you invest (or Trade) to those funds yourself ? Also, those funds went up a lot, so it’s better to wait to put new money if I want to put new money ? Thanks as always.
TM, I do trade these funds and have for well over a year. As for when to start trading any system, especially a momentum one like this one, it is never an easy decision. Yes, they have went up, but will they go higher? Hard to say, for sure. The system does go to cash eventually, which does help me sometimes to keep pulling the trigger even when it seems like I shouldn’t.
Thanks !
Wood, I find if you believe in your system you invest when you do your next screen, i.e. weekly, monthly, quarterly. If you are worried that you may be at a market top, or that you have a large pool of money for immediate investment, then do it over 3 periods.
My screen is monthly and I that’s how I proceed. Sure you may experience a DD, but you need to believe in your system long term.
Nice work !!
Jimmy, I agree. Have to trust the system and take the signals as they come. However, that might be different from someone who is just starting to trade it.
Interesting picks…. here’s my take on something possibly related. I was playing around with your Caveman Russell 2000 system in Excel. When I do Excel stuff I often plot some of the “internal” data, which are intermediate calculations that only apply to that particular spreadsheet, but might have some other usefulness. This particular number, a kind of breadth measure, is currently the second highest reading going back to 2001. The previous two closest readings, in 2004 and 2011, presaged 6 months of general consolidation. (Afterwards, 2004 went up and 2011 down.) I believe it’s implying we are tending from momentum based picks towards mean reversion. Of course, two is hardly a big sample, but maybe we’ll see continued rotation among more defensive funds.
There hasn’t been much mean reversion this year, that’s for sure. Wouldn’t surprise me to see it come back in favor for a while. Interesting results you got there.