Just a quick observation before the holiday weekend…
It looks to me like SPY is forming a big bear flag. If so, we will watch closely to see how each side of the flag handles pressure. So far, the top of the flag is performing just as we would expect. Will SPY trade to the bottom of the flag, and will it bounce there? I suspect it will bounce, at least this time.
back to 115? Big down day before holidays? Not good for collective psyche.
Volatility will remain elevated…Big swings…all that stuff. I would look for a bounce at 115, but that might be too easy.
FLAG confirmed at the 30 day MA….how did you fair in Irene wrath ?
Fine. No damage. How about you? I was sending you good thoughts, after seeing all the flooding up there.
I agree with your analysis.
I mean, to brush off the events of the market since late July as anything other than a complete change in sentiment is, IMO, blind optimism. You have to take what the market is giving you…and right now, the easiest trades are going short when rallies stall out. Buy the dip…in reverse.
Glad to hear you made it through the storm unscathed.
cool. got your thoughts and made it out safe and sound.
however there has been massive destruction in my area.
peace bro. have a great holiday weekend.
How do You could know that SPY will rebounce arond 115?Just´d interest me what is behind this thought.I suspect all way dowm from now to 1033 and have thought to justify it.Thanks for Your answer, Xi Xao
Hi there Xi Xao. I suspect that SPY will bounce around 115 because that is where the bottom trend line is.
What I am looking for is for SPY to continue to trade withing the blue channel lines. If it trades significantly beyond one of the blue lines, then I will consider the move to be either bullish or bearish.
Thank You for answer, otherwise here´s my opinion- SPY needs to reach some signifacant low before the FED meeting, so the Fed has some excuse for QE3.May come true, may not, we´ll se, Xi
Could push to 125 range after double bottom pattern as well, but I wouldn’t be buying here. Also if we do go to 115 could possibly make some kind of triple bottom. I can’t really see us pushing much farther than 125 though with all the above resistance. Seems to be entering a smaller fractal of 2007-2011 before the July-August sell off where we retested 135. This time we would retest left shoulder low again but this time it’s around 125. The real shitstorm would likely come in October the black month of shitstorms and blood sacrifices among a slew of other halloween related events.