I know…I sound like a broken record. I added 15% more near the close, paying $95.09 This block was not added due to any system or known edge. Simply, I’m already very short, and the SPX is approaching a level where I will cover my shorts, accepting the losses, in order to not suffer anything more severe or crippling.
My thinking was to add more exposure as I can take comfort in knowing that if the melt-up continues through tomorrow’s close, the last block will not make a huge difference compared to the previous two blocks.
Barring a catastrophe for the bulls, this rather large short position will not likely be closed for a profit. However, I am hoping that I can at least exit the position with my dignity intact. In other words, it would be nice if I could have at least ONE DOWN DAY to cover into. Is that too much to ask?
Also, look at the volume, or lack of it! More than anything, the Nasdaq being up 9 days in a row, Dow getting the greatest percentage gain since whenever, it is the lack of volume that I think should be of the greatest concern to the bulls.
If anyone starts selling in size, there will not be anyone to absorb the shares.
Anyway, just give me my stinkin’ down day and I’ll shut up.
Wood, Good luck!
How is the NASDQ up 9 days in a row closing near the high each day? The last time we had this kind of a rally was in 1998 during the tech bubble. Not that the market cares at all, but I agree with you – too far too fast – hopefully this bubble will pop for you soon!
Good luck Wood,
I’m still trying to get in on a pullback and waiting..waiting…and waiting.
woodshedder, How are you so bearish when the Fly is all bullish?
the market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Ticker, Fly and I trade different time frames.
Hammy, no doubt.
My risk is defined, so we’ll let my hand play from here.
What will the river card be?
i’m sure you’ll do fine — i dumped SRS today via a trailing stop set at the open and am consumed with regret because the volume is scary as hell. but, its earnings season. and it is irrational…
Looks like tomorrow may be a pullback day…
I fucking hope so.
This mometum defies anything I’ve seen in a long time.
Holding steady on my SPY (Aug’09 94.) puts as well. Didn’t add, since I had my risk predefined already and it’s not usually my style to increase it. (Especially since it wasn’t a trade based off my signals…just one of those “you-think-we’d-get-a-breather-one-of-these-days” thing.)
Also been sitting on a Sep’09 strangle in the SPY…should we break above $95, I’m definitely closing out the put-side and riding the calls.
I appreciate your honesty. There are not enough posts about losing trades … it happens … its part of trading. Keep holding. There will be down side. Bad News is out there ….Unemployment will keep going up. Patience. I’ve been there many times.
TraderRenn, don’t forget to point out that 9 day win streak for $compx ended on July 21st, 1998! But the rally was about 17% depending whether you use close or intraday prices. Statistically speaking, it’s anomoly and probably time to swallow hard and hold for the down day which is coming. Woodshedder, by honoring your stops you are definitely trading wisely. Do not be upset if you take the chop, then it falls. You know your discipline will prevail over time.
Oh, yeah, I’m short both SPY and Qs by being long puts…thunderstorm in Phoenix, this could be the day….
Tommy,
Good point!
R.
PS – wish you guys luck – noticed MACD on the 30 min SPY and QQQQ is diverging from price .
So far, boring…which doesn’t bode well for us bears!
Thanks for the bear support group guys!
from cashin’s comments this morning, might be interesting, might not… :
The 20 week moving average has now crossed above the 40 week moving average. Bulls point out that this has not occurred anytime during this bear market. The last time the 20 week was higher than the 40 week was way back in November of 2007. That’s when the Dow was 13371 and the S&P was 1481.
The recent rally has been strong enough to take nearly 70% of all stocks above their respective 200 day moving averages. That’s a sign of bullish stability according the napkin bulls.
Tempering some of this is some research on what is the real record of some of the most talked about “key signals.” One of these is the so-called “Golden Cross.” That is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average. Many cite this as a buy signal for a new bull move. The Golden Cross occurred back on July 2nd. -Today, Mark Hulbert reviews the history of the Golden Cross. His study finds that the market performance after a Golden Cross is not any better than a kind of random sampling. That hints the “signal” may be noise.
Was the 200DMA rising? 🙂
Don’t even go there!!!
Although I would really like to see Hulbert’s review, not to dispute anything, but just to understand his method.
uh-oh! karl was right after all?
thus far, this down day is pretty lame… can we get some armageddon action already?
I’m saying…
Wood, what’s your take on today’s volume vs yesterday?
thx
Roark, I don’t have access to real time, but pulling up a stockcharts chart of the SPY looks to me like it might be clocking in higher than yesterday.
This would make sense as yesterday and Monday’s volume was so low I assume there was a complete lack of sellers.
I see RED!!
WOOHOO!
WTF
this market is fuked up
Sometimes its good just to go home and play with your kids, spend time with the wife, and forget about how crazy it is to play this game.
There are a lot more important things in life, but sometimes, like the last few days, the market feels like it is the most important thing.
Anyway, the SPX closed just shy of my squeal point. I did not cover one share and will not in the a.m.
good to hear you didn’t squeal ‘uncle’ just yet… and yes, the market is becoming my mistress… no it has been for a year
Woody,
I am so with you here. Can I just see some red, just one day… please?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onqa6aRHDC4
Oh, I so LOVE my new default avatar!!! Seriously!! How do I keep it!!
Dumas, I believe the avatars are linked to your IP or your alias. Not sure which one. Regardless, it should stay the same…It is reminiscent of one Sponge Bob Square Pants, no?
I’m pretty sure they’re tied to email.
Testing right here.
VERDICT: Indeed, I was right.
ah… but I’m lying about my email in the form entry… so I’m stealing someone else’s! Funny!
yeah, like spongebob, but somehow in a not so flattery way.