I think it is healthy and good for one’s karma to begin unveiling a system right as it hits a string of losers. (Not really.) At least then I can’t be accused of providing results which would not be realistic.
I bought ASCA and ICON in my personal account. The prices listed below reflect the actual price I received.
Open Trades:
Closed Trades:
Summary of Results:
I have been trading this system off and on for quite some time, but it has only been since I started using AmiBroker that I (and my partner) have been able to test the system properly, across all the stocks in the universe.
I have some refinements to test on the Power Dip this weekend, but once those tests are complete, the system should be very close to being “finished.”
Stay tuned for some in-depth, historical (backtest-generated) statistics and an equity curve.
It’s just the market keeping you humble Wood.
Wood,
That was a good entry (hindsight 20/20). Both stocks were resting on their MA(20) on the daily at the close before you entered and it provided good support.
I sometimes like to use a shortened form of MACD(5,9,2) and from that perspective things don’t look really good – but I know that even this short MACD can have a neg. divergence for a long time so you can’t exactly act on it.
One problem I find, is that even if I am looking at a good, strong stock, I am always afraid of the market (ie S&P500) rolling over and taking my good, strong stock down with it. I know it’s not really productive and it plays tricks on me a lot of times, but I just can’t help it somehow.
In your system, are you also looking at the market in general? If not, do you happen to have the same issue if you were to buy in a discretionary style? I think that somehow I’ve got to get rid of this ‘general market’ think, just don’t know how.
Cheers,
Cristian
Cristian, re: being afraid of the market…
I could never master NOT being afraid the market would take my long positions with it when it rolled over, or vice versa with my short positions.
Or actually, once I had been trading for a few years and had seen lots of fuckery, I better understood what COULD happen…
The only way I could beat this was to begin backtesting and system trading. With a system and a backtest, one can build in a broad market filter, a la the 200 day moving average. And there are other ways too… But basically backtesting will allow you to understand how you can reasonably expect your to perform, under a broad array of general market conditions.