This stock was identified by another short system. This system is not one of my favorites. I might even call it mediocre. In fact, I rarely take signals from it; instead I’ve just been tracking it and making occasional tweaks to the stop percentage, exit criteria, and max days to hold.
Here are the statistics over the last year:
| Trade Statistics |
| There were 185 total stocks entered. Of those, 182 or 98.38% were complete and 3 or 1.62% were open. |
| Of the 182 completed trades, 102 trades or 56.04%resulted in a net gain. |
| Your average net change for completed trades was: 1.16%. |
| The average draw down of your approach was: -5.39%. |
| The average max profit of your approach was: 5.87% |
| The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 1.44 |
| Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 58.94%, the ROI of ^SPX was: -37.85%. |
| Exit Statistics |
| Stop Loss was triggered 53 times or 29.12% of the time. |
| Stop Profit was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. |
| Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. |
| You held for the maximum period of time (10 days) 22 times or 12.09% of the time. |
| An exit trigger was executed 107 times or 58.79% of the time. |
I like several things about the chart, in terms of a short setup. However, the system win ratio of 56% is low, at least for a system with a short time horizon. Caution is therefore advised.
Since the system is profitable, it may be that the entry signal produces an edge that is barely better than 50/50 while the money management and exit strategy make up the difference.
The system was backtested with a stop of 8%. Should I take the trade, I will likely use a 1.5ATR stop, which would place the stop very close to 58. Not only will that give the trade room to move, it also gets the stop just above multiple areas of resistance. I do not want to be short CHD if it can break through multiple areas of resistance.
In case you didn’t know, CHD manufactures and markets of Trojan brand condoms, as well as other household products such as Arm & Hammer baking soda.
Not sure about the rest of the gang, but the recession has been great for my sex life. But, then again I just got married.
lol…Good for you Cajun!
With a name like “Wood”, you should be able to answer that question with relative ease.
Well, I guess the point was not frequency of sex as much as whether if one has to choose between condoms and say, food, which will he choose? But of course, the title was sexy, so I went with it anyway.
Wood,
Does USO make the Bamboo: http://www.ibankcoin.com/rcblog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/uso-rsi2.png
Cajun, it doesn’t. BB trades with the trend, so it would actually be covering a short at this level. It would not go long USO as the trend is down.
A very simple RSI2 simple could issue a buy here.
Is anyone seeing oil up 6 bucks $42.00?
Crude,
You’re seeing the February contract, which is at 42, while the January contract is at 36. There has been a $5 or so difference between the two for several days.
contangooooooo
Hey wood… when i opened iBankcoin.com, your post was the first one I went to. I wonder why.
Great stuff, but for a little more about sex, here’s a hilarious take on the subject.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vc8tPTVBRSc
.
People are apparently having MUCH less sex. That was a slam dunk call. Covering 1/2 MOC.
Hey Wood,
A few months back one of you guys did a video tutorial on technical patterns and I was thinking it might have been you. Do you remember what Im talking about? My buddy is just starting out that and was a really easy video series to watch.
Larry, I’m fairly certain it was Ragin Cajun.
Depends… do alcohol sales go up? I’m thinking they do, so more sex.
-DT