This strategies traded in this account are derived entirely from technical analysis. I strive to trade the account completely mechanically. This month I implemented a new short-selling strategy. The short strategy has triggered 2 trades, both of which were winners.
I expect that once the market digests the bailout, the strategies will begin to signal several trades a week. The past month or so has been very slow.
Due to the nature of the market over the past few months, I still have not utilized 100% of the capital in this account. Once I feel comfortable increasing position sizes enough to deploy all of my capital, I fully expect these strategies to earn better than 30% per year.
| Â | All Trades | Long Trades | Short Trades |
| Total Net Profit | $3,319.63 | $2,667.84 | $651.79 |
| Gross Profit | $4,546.37 | $3,894.58 | $651.79 |
| Gross Loss | ($1,226.74) | ($1,226.74) | $0.00 |
| Profit Factor | 3.71 | 3.17 | n/a |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Total Number of Trades | 56 | 54 | 2 |
| Percent Profitable | 75.00% | 74.07% | 100.00% |
| Winning Trades | 42 | 40 | 2 |
| Losing Trades | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Even Trades | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Avg. Trade Net Profit | $59.28 | $49.40 | $325.89 |
| Avg. Winning Trade | $108.25 | $97.36 | $325.89 |
| Avg. Losing Trade | ($87.62) | ($87.62) | $0.00 |
| Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss | 1.24 | 1.11 | n/a |
| Largest Winning Trade | $421.02 | $421.02 | $340.79 |
| Largest Losing Trade | ($219.00) | ($219.00) | $0.00 |
| Largest Winner as % of Gross Profit | 9.26% | 10.81% | 52.29% |
| Largest Loser as % of Gross Loss | 17.85% | 17.85% | n/a |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Max. Consecutive Winning Trades | 25 | 25 | 2 |
| Max. Consecutive Losing Trades | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Total Commission | $100.31 | $96.31 | $4.00 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Return on Initial Capital | 6.64% | Â | Â |
| Annual Rate of Return | 18.16% | Â | Â |
| Buy & Hold Return | -1.67% | Â | Â |
| Avg. Monthly Return | $663.93 | Â | Â |
| Std. Deviation of Monthly Return | $717.13 | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Trading Period | 4 Mths, 7 Dys, 6 Hrs, 29 Mins | Â | Â |
| Percent of Time in the Market | 55.52% | Â | Â |
| Time in the Market | 2 Mths, 10 Dys, 18 Hrs, 33 Mins | Â | Â |
| Longest Flat Period | 13 Dys, 21 Hrs, 28 Mins | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Max. Equity Run-up(Daily) | $3,321.63 | Â | Â |
| Date of Max. Equity Run-up | 9/24/2008 16:00 | Â | Â |
| Max. Equity Run-up as % of Initial Capital | 6.64% | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Max. Drawdown(Daily) | Â | Â | Â |
| Value | ($1,687.00) | ($1,687.00) | ($107.38) |
| Date | 7/24/2008 9:30 | Â | Â |
| as % of Initial Capital | 3.37% | 3.37% | 0.21% |
| Net Profit as % of Drawdown | 196.78% | 158.14% | 606.99% |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Max. Drawdown(Trade Close) | Â | Â | Â |
| Value | ($555.34) | ($555.34) | $0.00 |
| Date | 8/29/2008 9:30 | Â | Â |
| as % of Initial Capital | 1.11% | 1.11% | 0.00% |
| Net Profit as % of Drawdown | 597.77% | 480.40% | n/a |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Max. Trade Drawdown | ($413.06) | ($413.06) | ($261.45) |
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Congrats on the new high my friend, you deserve it!
Time to start going all in Shed!
Thanks M!
Danny, I agree. Although I know to expect volatility going forward (which is actually good for these strategies), I really want the Armageddon trade to be taken off the table. I think this bailout will accomplish that. Then it will be time to use all available capital. My major goal this year has been to not lose money. The fact that I’m ahead is even better.
Excellent job Shed.
Wood,
Congrats and thanks for sharing your results. It is great to see someone making money in this market.
What do you use to keep track of and generate those stats? Also, I have learned a great deal from your posts, thanks. What other books or sites would you recommend for learning TA?
I have always been a fundamentals/value guy but reading you posts has convinced me that I should add more technical analysis to my methodology. Again, thanks for the great content you provide on this site.
Great work Shed! you’re now in the top 5 at Covestor.
Thanks everyone… Fing-loser: Tradestation platform creates that report/stats.
As for learning TA, there are countless ways. I follow the KISS method…keep it simple, stupid. Research the indicators that actually provide a statistically significant edge, and use those. Research, and be able to quantify, the chart patterns that provide an edge, and use those.
Then, begin to trust what you have learned. Most traders who want to be technical analysts fail because they do not truly believe it works.
Be careful about falling into the technical analysis jungle, where you are constantly searching for the next great indicator or chart pattern. Honestly, most indicators are junk. Most chart patterns are a 50/50 proposition.
Separate the wheat from the chaff, find a few things that work, and then start building some rules/a system around them.
One thing to keep in mind- analysis of volume is a key component to TA, and should be one of your top 3 indicators. I do not recommend using more than 4 indicators.
If you are considering any books, shoot me a comment, and I’ll let you know if I’ve read them, or have an opinion on the author.
Gio, thanks man! I’m very excited about that! I’m hoping that the covestor crowd actually reads the blog over here…it would be nice to get some more systems traders commenting.
F-ing loser, one more thing…Money management is crucial, and perhaps the most important element to trading successfully using only technical analysis.
See, once you can quantify your setups and exits, you should be able to calculate how many trades will fail, and how many will win, and you will calculate how much you expect to make on each trade. Once you get those calculations, you will need to create a money management system that works with your system’s stats.