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Soon you milquetoast type will pay for your insolence.
Wood,
Should Obama win the Presidency, and initiate a withdrawal from Iraq, consequences for US$ and commodities?
Commodities have always risen in time of war.
jog
The MACD turning bullish will be your end!!!! 2 up days, and DBA will def be in recovery back to highs.
Hmmm, “Commodities have always risen in a time of war”.
That seems like a conincidence rather than a rule to me. US is always at war with someone in any given 40 year period. And commodities are always going through thier boom/bust cycle.
It seems that the world is so fixated on the US eonomy, they are forgetting how the rest of the world is doing.
Expect USD and GOLD to go down from here until Sept. I will explain my reasoning for this in another post, rather than mess with wood’s post.
Sia
Fuck you and the MACD
For the record I am long DBA … so I hope you are wrong on your analysis. Having said that, best of luck. Weaker USD plus supply side constraints aren’t likely to help your case
rslg,
A little bit more than mere coincidence;
http://leduc998.wordpress.com/2008/04/09/some-factors-in-commodity-bull-market/#respond
Ducati: I read your link, but you do not provide a direct correlation between WAR and commodities.
You wisely point out that there is a link between the USD and high commodities. But then throw inthe cost of the war at the end to justify your bias. This is a classic case of confirmation bias. The cost of the war is not that large compared to the typical cost of wars/defense spending historically. Defense bugdets are way down compared to previous wars based on GDP.
The statistic that is way up historically is trade balance deficits and printing of money (dilution of USD). More money floating around in more foreign hands will naturally produce more expensive commodities, the co-incidence is that this also happened in the 1970’s.
Forget about the war, it hs been painted in the media as a cause for all the US currency problems. Obama, clinton or mcCain it does not matter what they do, the path of the USD and commodities is not set by them. They will all face the same problems, and all eventually have to set the same policies regardless of thier stance pre-election.
BTW: USD will strenghten over next year, and commodities will take a pause, but eventually they will all rise to record highs. If you think US has a housing problem, wait till the news about the rest of the world comes out. This party was not only celebrated in the US.