Some of you may have heard Danny talking about his iBC Machine. At first, like most of you, I was sceptical. In fact, I thought he was joking. I spent over an hour last night on the phone with him while he walked me through how to use it. I can promise you I am no longer a sceptic and it is definitely not a joke. While I will not disclose exactly how it works, the simplest definition is that it is a measure of the market internals.
Tonight’s reading on this iBC machine is bullish. When the indexes reached the levels of today’s close in January and February, the internals, as measured by the machine, were much worse. So what does all this mean? In the past, the market did not have the fortitude to go higher from this level. What has changed is that now the market has an underlying strength not seen in months and is poised to break through resistance.
The wild card is the Non-Farm Payroll Report, due to be released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. I am sure the number will be negative. Bloomberg has the consensus as -50K. However, I feel strongly that if the number is not Armageddon awful, the markets will rally again. I think both the Dow Jones and the S&P stand a good chance of breaking through resistance which has held for the past 3 months.
While the SPY and Nasdaq are overbought, it is still very possible for the indexes to stay in this overbought situation for a few days. Keep in mind they stayed oversold for 3-4 days before rallying, on the way down. The fact that indexes have stayed near overbought, after a 400 point Dow rally, should not be ignored.
All the indicators are in momo mode, with the MACD trying to make new highs, and the Stochs ready to flatline in the overbought area.
Today, I bought a little [[PTEC]] and some [[POWL]]. I am also long [[WB]] and [[MBRK]]. I am still waiting for some kind of pullback in the Health Care reits, which I hope comes soon.
I am still short [[DBA]] and long [[SKF]].
Good luck to all tomorrow. Tomorrow’s trading may turn out to be a non-event, but my intuition says it could be very volatile, in either direction.
It is a well oiled machine.
Well, let’s see.
The Fly is off to Romania.
Of course, there’s a huge probability the market’s going to rally. Last time he “retired” remember?
Fuck you.
Wood,
I’m still signalling short-term pullback for tomorrow.
jog
My crystal ball is signaling Godzilla will still eat the Nasdaq building tomorrow.
The $VIX you should be watching, instead of your fucktarded RSI.
Fetishist you are, with that one.
Wow the IBC machine isnt a hoax?
I feel like I did when I found out about Area 51…
“You mean It’s real?!”
Yabba Dabba OOB-HAY, texas walker Cramer style!!
Where can I get myself an IBC machine… If I join the Peanut Gallery and get the most stars do I get to use it?
By the way, where’s Mr. Bilderberg and his assistant been?
Duc, it seems the short term pullbacks have been intraday.
I’ve got one more up day possible before a pullback will be imminent.
Yoda- I do watch the VIX. Currently, it is circling the drain. One more up day, and it will have shit the shower, broken the trend, slapped its momma.
Lol- I think there might be a future here at iBC where the iBC machine generates revenue for all, but ultimately that is up to Danny, as he has put the time and effort into creating and tweaking it.
If nonfarm payroll number is “positively” shocking, the recession will be canceled.
Market will rally like a wild gander in a gaggle of geese.
thanks for the shoutout Shed. I just wrote about that too…
I think you have a good call here Shed. Could be another big day. Still not sure of direction but odds are in the bulls favor.
Wood,
Yeah, I pretty have what you have; although if you take a 3 year outlook, the Dow is still in a strong downtrend. Further, my CMF shows a very low buying volume coming in, and diminishing since March.
On the fundamentals, one has to wonder, the combination of the greatest housing collapse since the great depression, the greatest financial crisis, not to mention 100 oil, all time high in commodities, and we barely scrape by a recession.
Although isn’t this the first time we are having a slowdown in the midst of easing as relative to tightening?
WOOD;
Check Bulkowsk’s Blog. Look at 4/1/08 DJI chart. I think he gives a great TN for this market. Cramers call for an L market looks like L for lumpy.
need a short term pullback to the 9 day MA line
otherwise i see the nasdaq hitting 2400 or so this month and then the next leg down of this bear market will start up again
draw a trend line from the peak last year, through the high in december and it shows the line hitting around 2400 later this month or early may
i like to use the 10 day moving average and it has fallen off the cliff as soon as this rally started
Looks like we are on the Head of a Head and Shoulders reversal. Left shoulder started mid March. But I’m biased and seeing things how I want to :/
Wood, Can you publish any insight/chart on $VIX after Friday’s market?