Usually the right trade is the one you least want to make. Similarly, making trading decisions based on what feels good, or what will make the pain go away the quickest, is usually exactly wrong. That’s why I’m telling you that I’m not buying here.
But before we get into all that, I was going to start this post with about 10 bullets, all of which would highlight my accuracy in calling the turns in this market. Then I realized that it would be a waste of my time to go back through all the posts and pull out those quotes. Besides, those that read me regularly know this anyway. And, I reallyÂ do not need to rub it in the face of my naysayers (The Fly), as I am not here to make enemies.
So, back to the matter at hand.
You are thinking, “Mr. Woodshedder, I just want to ease my pain! I just want to go long! Give me some stocks to buy! I should have listened to you. Is it too late?”
Well, yes, it is too late, unless you want to buy at the top of a 2 week run, while the indexes are near overbought, and sitting just beneath resistance. Sure, it will make you feel better to have a few longs. I understand. In fact, I succumbed myself to the wanton urges and bought a little [[WB]] today. Tomorrow, I will likely dip into a little [[XHB]]. I may consider some [[FXI]].
However, I’m talking about spending 10-20% of my cash hoard. Nothing major. Like most of you, I too need something to offset a little of my [[SKF]].
The fact of the matter is that there is a good chance that there will be a pullback, or at least stabilization, before the jobs report on Friday. As I stated a while back when I went bullish, bad news will be good news. If the jobs report is just something god-awful, the market may take it for what it is and sell-off. However, if it is just bad, we will probably rally.
Regardless, you’ve already missed a 1000 point run in the Dow Jones. Whats another 100 points or so? If the Dow, Nasdaq, and Spy can rally above resistance, then we will have confirmed double-bottoms, and you will be free to buy with reckless abandon. If the indexes hit resistance, weather the jobs report, and pullback or stabilize on lighter volume, then I will likely be beside you, bidding up equities. Until then, patience is paramount.
One final note. The VIX (chart above) has hit its 200 day moving average. For the last 6 months, as evidenced by the trend, when the VIX hits this level, it has marked a short-term top. A break of this trend should not be ignored.