iBankCoin
Joined Nov 11, 2007
1,458 Blog Posts

The Daily Breakout: Giving the Steers Some Rope

This market is schizophrenic. The argument that the bad news is priced in seems too convenient to be plausible, although it is hard to argue with the action. The VIX is fixin’ to break beneath a month-old trendline. The more bad news we get, the more I see traders buying breakouts. Sentiment shifts between bearish and bullish, within an hour’s time. But what has changed? Nothing, at all. The markets are still consolidating. Moving into big positions here, betting on a move in either direction still seems like a pure gamble. I will wait for confirmation. Overall, I feel like the steers have been given a little rope, so that when they finally stumble blindly over the edge of the cliff, the noose will bite and their heads will be ripped clean off, effectively ending any discussion about whether this is a correction or a true bear market.

That being said, I will still go long if that is what the technicals warrant, and honestly, the breakouts have been developing more and more quality technicals over the past couple of weeks.

GTRE

Technically, [[GTRE]] is not a breakout. I still love the chart, nonetheless, and will watch for a pullback.

SFY

[[SFY]]

CSX

[[CSX]] There is something that appeals to my sense of nostalgia when I own a train.

BBG

[[BBG]] I have no idea what this company is about.

 Do not forget that breakout plays are by their nature overbought when they setup. Be sure you can stomach the pullback which inevitably follows the breakout. I have not checked earnings or any other fundamentals on these companies.

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9 comments

  1. Danny

    iBC West Trading Division

    2-20-08

    Woodshed-

    You must have screened over 1.5 million charts to have come up with these quotidian graphings. I hope this chirlish note finds you in high spirits.

    Good day,

    Danny

    iBankCoin, Needless Complaint Dept.
    (555) 327-2389

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  2. mdawsz

    Hey Wood,

    Whatever came of that trading interview you did with that website? I remember waiting for it to hit the big time but…nothing.

    Anyways, good post.

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  3. Juice

    clever title

    you and Daniel are winners of titles of the week

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  4. Woodshedder

    Mdawsz, the site, Wallst.net, never published the interview. Now, that might bother me, except that I don’t believe they have published any interviews subsequent to mine. I emailed Dennis Olson, the interviewer, and never received an email back. I suspect they shitcanned Dennis and ended the interviewing of third tier financial bloggers.

    Danny, chirlish [sic].

    I have a fairly well-developed system for screening breakouts. Works well in a bull market. Unfortunately, my screens for breakdowns are still developing.

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  5. Danny

    intentional misspelling.

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  6. Sierra Water

    Wood, those all look like short cadidates?

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  7. mdawsz

    Wood, looks like you just missed your 15 minutes of fame by about…errr 15 minutes.

    UPDATE: Wow, wallst.net is a pretty gay website.

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  8. Woodshedder

    Sierra, yeah, why buy breakouts in a bear market? I know. However, one gets tired of looking at breakdowns.

    Mdawsz- it was kind of strange how it all worked out, or didn’t work out.

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