I’m surprised, in a contest where one has nothing to lose, that there were not more entries. However, there were enough to generate some interesting statistics.
The Fly is the most bearish participant while New Equity is the most bullish. However, New Equity’s guesses are over 2 standard deviations above the mean. Considering this, The Fly is less bearish than New Equity is bullish, but just barely. The Fly’s S&P 500 guess was right at 2 standard deviations below the mean. Oddly, this makes his nearest competitor Ducati.
Other interesting notes:
- The mean guess for the SPXÂ is 1452.72. The SPX closed today at 1453. If the herd is right, the SPX will trade sideways until the end of the year.
- The mean guess for the COMP is 2620.45. The COMP closed at 2601.01. This means the herd is slightly bullish on the tech index.Â
Some participants foolishly chose the same number as others. This means one of them will not win.
I got my data from the future.
Yeah, well all I know is that you are aligned by statistics with Ducati and New Equity. And that my internet friend is fucking hilarious.
My money is on Big Gay Al. BTW, I didn’t join in the Internet fun b/c I wasn’t interested in your low rent prizes.
I joined, but was not included in your list. I’ll assume that you feared my optimism. Or maybe I would have thrown off the averages too much.
I guess my pick was rather sarcastic…
Still, don’t make me start calling your blog “gay” Woody.
-DT
Dino- yeah, your guess threw off the Mean and STD. Sorry. However, if you win, you will still get your prize!
I’ve been working on six separate transactions…
So I forgot, sue me.
Is it too late, I presume?
Jake, put your guess in. However, you will be ineligible for the killer books.
S&P 1491
Naz – 2640
I got enough fuckin’ books.