Who would have thought that with housing in its worst shape in many decades, credit locked up tighter than its been in 20 years, job growth barely enough to sustain the economy, and a declining GDP, that the markets would pull off a successful V bottom?
With the DOW and the SPY closing above their major moving averages, and the Nasdaq set up to regain its 50 day average very soon, there is not much left for a bear to hang his (ass)hat on. Honestly, there are only two elements remaining about this rally that leave room for doubt.
The first is volume. Volume across the board has been declining as the market moves higher. It is important to note that volume in August was also slack but did not stop the market from continuing much higher. Generally, declining volume in a rising market is bearish.
The other technical element which casts a shadow of doubt on the rally continuing is that the indexes are becoming overbought. However, it is entirely conceivable that this condition gets worked off over the next few days, just in time for a huge Fed rally on December 12th.
While the bearishness has almost been beat out of me, I’m not yet ready to go long here. In four days, the Fed will report, and the market will once again be allowed to trade fairly unencumbered by Helicopter Ben and Dubya (This is NOT a Bailout), at least until the next crisis.
I still believe there is money to be made on the downside. As I have outlined, the indexes have reached their honey holes, and while it seems insane to short here, If you want to sell high, and buy low, now is the time.
How’s your fucking honey hole?
Fuck you and Jake.
Its sore. Thanks for asking.
You still loaded to the brim in puts?
Interest rate 50 bps cut is gonna launch us bulls into heaven.
NewE- I was never loaded with puts. I had 6 on the Qs and 2 on the SPY. All were closed at the open yesterday after I read the ADP report.
Why will this cut be any different than Oct 31 cut?
Nice reverse H&S. I guess the answer to the question you posed to me awhile back is “yes, I do believe this thing is over without another leg down.” Thanks for the analysis and for responding like a true trader. You don’t impose your will on the markets, you go with the flow. I guess it works for you as you look for confirmation before you jump in – keeps you out of the market and keeps you from suffering the gut wrenching reversals to a great extent.
Could be a reverse H&S, or a reg’lar one.
little disappointed you didnt shoot anything in the face this go. At least kill something.
Shed, why don’t you play individual charts against the indices, short or long?
Alvair, thanks. I’m trying very hard to stay disciplined. My trading has suffered this year as I have overtraded and thrown discipline out the window. I have stayed on the sidelines for the most part in November and will probably in December as well until I feel that I am ready to trade again.
Juice, good idea, and I will do that, at some point.
Its good to know my ideas are working. Did anyone see what MANT did yesterday after I posted it in the PG? Its one thing to have money setups and yet another to be able to trade them well.
big dicked gain across the board, new highs are around corner.
You might be right NewE.
You were certainly a lot more correct than I gave you credit for with your 10% upside 2% downside comment a week ago or so.
I just checked MANT, what do you think of a breakout now above 44?
your trading is not the only thing that has suffered.
I bet your hand is suffering from all the jerking off you do. Go get a blow up doll or something.
I gave you the answers for the exam already, stop being a bitchy blowjob and do what I told you to do.
Regards
hey shed, isn’t it a w bottom or am I drunk?