2012 will give a shorting opportunity and a buying opportunity if you have patience $AAPL

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2011 was my first year trading full time. It was a difficult year to trade but my port folio was up 15.7% compared to  $SPX that was down 0.4%.

Looking back at the $SPX chart for 2011 it now looks so obvious. Should have sold in May and gone away. The clear H & S formation LS in March H in May and RS in August was so obvious and when it broke the neckline I should have sold all and gone short.  While I  did not lose money in June I lost out on a great opportunity to short and bank extra coins.

What is obvious to me right now is that the MA150 and MA200 is trending down and that Europe is in horrible shape as per my last post. While we got a thin rally back in the US,  Europe did not and that is worrisome. If you are not a trader I would stay out and stay out until a BIG sell off occurs. If you are a trader nible at some long and get ready to cash out when  the PIIGS hit the fan again. Greece, Spain or Italy or all 3 will provide a buying opportunity sometime this year. I expect 2012 to be the year when Greece finally will throw in the towel and declare they can no longer pay their debt. Necesarry Austerity in Europe and their inability to print money like the US will kill their GDP and growth for years to come. History tells us that you cannot cut your debt and grow at the same time. Without Europe the US cannot rally very far.

$AAPL deserves a new high based on new expected record earnings. My target is 450. Sell off target 350. Some high fliers I have on my watch list for shorts are $MCD $CMG $SBUX $NKE like $NFLX and $DECK  $CRM the former will have their day to pay the piper.

I have a gut feeling that the market will top after the earnings release of $AAPL (Euphoria) and start a long sell off that will take us below 2011 lows (Fear).  After the sell off I will look for strong US companies with high dividends and low P/E values and new $AAPL entry. $AAPL will break 500 but not before Europe get their debt issues resolved. Happy New Year to all.

7 Responses to “2012 will give a shorting opportunity and a buying opportunity if you have patience $AAPL”

  1. good stuff. thanks for posting.

  2. Very interesting. Nice post.

  3. Good stuff Vegas. Would like to see more posts from you. Appreciate you insight in 12631.

  4. hillary climtoon

    strong US companies with high dividends and low P/E values ..any candidates?

  5. Good writing man. Good luck to you ad all of us this year

  6. @ Hillary Thanks for reading. After a major sell off I would consider buying a high yield dividend stock like $MO. The yield is already 5.5%. In bad times buy stocks of companies that you can eat, drink or smoke. It is easy to run a screen at that time for best picks. Don’t buy now $MO already ran up $6 in the past 4 month and that is worrisome by itself. Good luck.

  7. Right on cue Up-date from BBC News: Greece warns on euro exit if bailout not signed. Greece may have to leave the eurozone if it fails to secure its latest bailout from the EU, IMF and banks, a government spokesperson has warned.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16385792

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