Chipotle $CMG on my radar screen for a short so I made a field trip tonight

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I had to go to Chipotle for dinner to see what the big fuss was about. Great dinner and good deal. I would go back for sure. I liked the clear information about what meat has and has not added hormones and antibiotics. I liked that the calorie count is clearly marked on everything on the menu card. The price is not high for a monster burrito like these that can be easily shared. To much for one person. The ad ons are really cheap. Beer 2.40, Soda 1.40, Chips and Cuacamole only 2.40. The place had a line from the door and they were super busy. Compared to QDoba $JACK and Baja Fresh $PRIVATE they were 4 times as busy. I’m mighty impressed but because I like the food doesn’t mean I like the stock at these lofty prices. My biggest beef is that anyone can do what they do and the entry price is cheap. No proprietary ideas. No patents. They should be easy to copy.  The “Mexican” experience was lacking due to the fact ICE cracked down on Chipotle and send home 1/3 of their work force back in May. Again one day this stock will Peter out and stock will drop 20-50% in a New York minute.  One bad quarter and it is the elevator down. Definitely on my radar screen for a short.  Market Cap: 10.5 B, PE: 51.7,  EPS: 6.41 52 week high: 347,94,  52 week low: 212.58. Closing today $337.075.64(1.70%)

I like the risk reward for a short set up: Stock has an up-side of 3-10% tops while a downside of 20-50%. I currently has no position but may take a position within the next few days

4 Responses to “Chipotle $CMG on my radar screen for a short so I made a field trip tonight”

  1. nice. completely agree. always a huge line and food is solid. but valuation way too high. I hope to catch the leg down when it happens as well.

  2. Last time I was back in the States I gave ’em a try to see what the fuss was all about. I guess I don’t get it because I didn’t think it was all that great. Wasn’t bad, mind you, but nothing I would go out of my way for again.

  3. Shorted $CMG 1/3 339.00 this morning.

  4. 10 days later we are at 318 down 22 points. 300 level is strong support. But if 300 breaks look at below.

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=cmg

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