Calling an audible before earnings on October 25, 2012: First congrats to $AAPL for catching up to Samsung with the i5 and up to $AMZN and $GOOG Nexus with the Mini iPad. After further review the call is: A day late and a dollar short. Old technology and over priced. The competitive price for a small tablet is 199-249. Not 329. Apple EPS has been slipping 3 quarters in a row and maybe one more time: 13.87 – 12.30 – 9.32 and 8? TTM for last 4 qtr is approx 44. Give a multiple of 13 = 572.00. Should Apple slip further in TTM or should we get a new recession with a multiple compression to 10X earnings or lower Apple has far more to fall. For Apple to reach say 780 they would need to produce EPS of 15 x 4 = 60 x 13 multiple = 780.
A couple of interesting support areas: Bounced off MA50 on weeklies 3 times in 2011 current 551. I would watch the MA200 current 583 on the daily is very careful and perhaps start buy to hold at that area.
On the positive side: $AAPL is already down 90 from 52HI so it is heavily discounted before earnings and the next quarters will be great with the pipeline full. Lots of people with i3s and i4s and iPads will be up-grading or adding perhaps an Mini iPad.
Conclusion is that $AAPL is no longer a sure bet and Apple needs to start innovate and bring the A-game every quarter if they want to keep the same growth and earnings per share we have become accustomed to.
Should $AAPL blow out earnings again with a big surprise that would change everything.
Added: Apple having problems selling iPhones in India:
Up-date: MA50 on the weeklies is now 555 and is in play.