Revenge and the Crystal Ball

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Technically speaking, the market has corrected very little. The May correction that always falls upon us has yet to sink its teeth into most traders. With that being said, it has managed to do a great deal of damage to my portfolio. I’m down on most positions and the only one really working right now is my oil trade through UCO. I believe lower prices are ahead of us, however, in the near term I think there will be one last push to highs. I may try to take advantage of it to raise cash.

Here’s my UCO chart. I’m in this name purely for the sake of mean reversion, and I will looked to sell above 28 or higher.

Screen shot 2013-04-22 at 3.49.17 PM

 

Maybe a bounce will occur. I will keep moving my stop up on this, my average price is just below 26 now.

As for the entire market, I am using the Russell as my tell. A break below 900 would signal a true correction may be underway. Here’s my crystal ball reading. In my opinion, and this is entirely speculative, we are going to bounce. People will continue to think new highs will be in reach, but they are wrong. All strength will waver into a sell off down to the neckline of the 900 level. We fall through, and correct in a true head and shoulders fashion. The chart of the Russell is below. Screen shot 2013-04-22 at 7.49.12 PM

 

I think the bounce will lift a lot of my positions, and I will look to get out with breakeven or small profits. I’m not going to get greedy here, I just want my previous gains back.

On a side note, watch KLIC and TER. The action looks very promising today for a trend reversal.

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