Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing. I don’t short stocks, and having been stopped out of my positions last week I sit in cash. I don’t believe cash is a position. Sure, if you are a investor, looking long term cash is fine. As a trader, cash means I have no idea what to do – I cannot find trades I want to take. And that’s fine.
The urge to trade out of boredom rarely leads to profits, generally it leads to sub par trading result. I am looking to see if the retest of the inverted H&S on the index charts holds, where I may try a few longs with tight stops, I suspect out of boredom.
Watch list: AVL ENTR EXK JBLU OPXT ROYL RYAAY TLM.TO
Some brief thoughts on the action so far.
Silver is bullshit. I got stopped out of my position on the initial dive down, triggering at 28.48 for a minor loss on what I expected to be a multiweek swing. The people manipulating it can, franky, go fuck themselves. I mean is it any wonder investors are fucking not coming back? I’m sure it will tank just long enough to suck in the silver going to $17 dollar crowd and relieve them of their coin (silver chirp).
Regardless, the carnage has not phased the miners – I know some people like PAAS here, and it looks coiled to move along with EXK and my personal favourite right now, AG. Consolidation below 16.16 will have me looking to go long for an EOD and a breakout, with a tighter than usual stop.
Other than that, the week has been a big clusterfuck of going no where while everyone who takes an adamant directional position is made to look the fool.
To take a second to talk my book, ECA is making moves today, and looks good on many time frames which has me looking to add despite the macro environment.
I still remember the time around when this picture was taken fondly. The sun was shining on me and the family. I had just signed my first real client, everyone in the family was doing well, making money. Then, almost as if the gods begrudged my happiness a series of tragedies befell me and those close to me. It began with me and my brother having to put down out dog of 17 years, then life began to catch up with those close to me who enjoyed living dangerously, limiting freedoms and stressing everyone in the family. People began to walk away, as cowards always do when the going gets tough. We endured. Fast forward two and a half years and we are still here, older, and slightly wiser. I won’t lie and say it was easy, or insult you by pretending you care. I am merely here to remind you that you get it how you live it and to share words of wisdom that were once imparted to me:
“Once you get it, don’t get it and boast, just through the knowledge the greater the trial the greater the growth”
My point with all this being, when emotions are riding high, as they are right now in the market it is best not talk shit to others, as you will shortly have your period of hardship. The hubris of Friday was punished with Mondays action, and that new hubris punished today.
With the emotional swings in the market, and a wall of worry, I am seeing many possible bottoming patterns in energy, and financials as well as the broader indices. I’m not calling for an immediate leg higher, but this bears watching.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney takes a lot of cues from his U.S. equivalent and fellow central banker Ben Bernanke. Both took interest rates to anorexic levels in light of the financial crisis in 2008. Both used their positions of power as stewards of the people’s money to bail out the big banks. Both take credit for the gains of their respective stock markets and for guiding their economies through the global recession. Both are forever on a quest to rid of the world of the boogeyman of deflation.
Stalking silver based on the daily. Looking to enter above 27.75 on volume with a stop below 27.15 with a first target of 28.75.
Also keep your eyes on energy and materials for confirmation of yesterdays hammers.
Update 2:21pm : Long slv 1/3 @ 27.69 stop under 27.18
Looks like those people calling for a 10% down day monday were sorely dissapointed the world did not end and as we speak futures are higher with PM’s leading the charge. So many people were calling for it, that I figured it was too obvious to happen. Those pointing to the credit market being in worse state than in 2008 are simply making the mistake of assume things are as they were. Did you expect that much fiat creation to not upset credit markets? Shorting when shit looked bleakest hasn’t worked for me in the past, and I think it is the obvious trade here, which means it probably won’t work.
My strategy was very simple today – I woke up, noticed we weren’t down 3% premarket and spent my day doing other shit.
I remain long AXX (TSE:ADV) and SVVC in starter position sizing. I expect svvc to be above 19.50 and AXX above 2.70 in a medium term time frame. Until then I will wait patiently to buy more lower.
Not much has changed since yesterday, we filled the gap, yet everyone seems to want to hype each move in the market. If your shit isn’t working, change it up. As it is, things look shitty, but the 30 minute charts are starting to look like we could bounce. Either way, calm yourself and your beard and behave as gentlemen. Nothing is wrong with cash.
This is dated – made back in the hay days of 1996, but I enjoy the trading myths, stories and lore. This is the story of Nick Leeson’s 1980s 830 million dollar loss.