NASA live http://www.nasa.gov/connect/chat/geminids2012.html

Unless you are living in the Desert or some Mountain Perch, click on the next best seat for the meteor shower

and I’m voting for Elizamae….just because

No it’s NOT a last minute entry attempt at “blogdom”, but after seeing Rhino’s posting and the dreaded “8.13”
I feel compelled to tell you:
I’ve also went long on $EXEL 4.38
Not much you can do right now…but 9:31 am arrives 5 days a week

I’m posting the NZ/US pair and I’m seeing similar patterns in AUD$ as well.

First, have a look at the 4 hour chart, price has been bouncing off the intermediate trend line. Stochastic has dropped down and MACD is fading:

Price is still below the Daily upper trend line ,so if we could be just seeing a small pull-back for a possible run North. Let’s see if price holds the line around .7730* and reverses

IF it breaks and continues down past the 38.2 then the next support is about half-way to the 23.6 (.7650*)

Looking at the Daily:

The yellow ema would be the bounce target, crossing the blue just above the 38.2 fib.  and could be a good place to enter long

So far it looks like a weaker pull-back, over all we have candles making higher highs and higher lows

The 50 sma is turning up (ever so slightly), here comes the Fib-Murrey slant. Looking “left”, if we do bounce up and price breaks higher I’ll target next resistance at the half-way point between the 50 and the 61.8 fib lines

Nothing is guaranteed of course but an entry at the cross would allow a smaller stop .

If you have noticed support/resistance lines not quite matching up with Fib lines, you may find this interview of interest:

Matt Davio talks with Victor Zubarev of PNW Capitol

math talk around the 14 minute mark…2 part interview

Without fail every NFP week I’ll get 4 new characters sending me e-mail with a sure-fire trading strategy  to mop the floor with this News release.

This week was no exception….the claims are getting nuttier but Hey..”The New Improved Pips decimator 5000″ robot is guaranteed…wiki-leak approved.

One guy was claiming that we see a 70 pip jump and he had the “the bag-O-pips” plan to get your share of this Trillion dollar move

Strange thing is?

We average about a 30 pip move going back 3 months:

Sept:

Oct:

Nov:

What I have noticed over time was that a couple minutes before the actual News release we generally do get a spike (25/30 pip range) allowing a buy in at lower than current price. So, you could most likely grab a position 10-12 pips under.

The Japanese will have to weaken the Yen and following along with the pattern, I’d say we are looking at a 100+ pip move in the near future…maybe as early as Sunday night.

Who knows for sure WHEN it will occur…looking back at the History of Intervention here…it’s not a matter of ” IF ”

Current Daily:

I’m still holding positions Long on the US/JPY although we saw a small 30+ pip rise after the initial crunch this morning, the YEN remains strong…and flat.

This puts Japans exporters in a poor trading position ONCE AGAIN, “wait for it”

from twitter news: JAPAN FINMIN AZUMI – 4TH EXTRA BUDGET WON’T BE LESS THAN 2 TRLN YEN – JIJI

How can we lose??…It’s TWITTER for Christ’s sake !!!

anyway,

The JPY is currently flatish around the 77.60’s, we were hitting 78.20’s just a few trading sessions ago. The normal rule I follow after Big Govie steps in is to wait 24 hours and let the dust settle and this being NFP week?

I’m holding into next week (I’m +) just not a whole lot (s)

************************************************************

The GBP/JPY trade last night went right back where it started…now it doesn’t look so promising, …I’ll pass

Many of the pairs are bouncing off the 50 sma on a 1 hour chart.. ( GB/US, AUD/US, AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, NZ/US,etc)…….

I’ll sit and wait

I’m putting a few Longs on the US/JPY and develop some patience…seems like a fairly easy 50/60 pips

I’ve always found this week tough to trade on a longer time frame (anything over 15 minutes) and I’m not a scalper. When in doubt-stay out.

Generally I bag a few pips early in the week (Mon/Tues), by mid-week I’m out unless I really see something/want to gamble on Friday’s numbers.

I don’t see it and I’m not about to punk’d by the Market…not this week

2 pairs I am keeping an eye on: GB/JPY and AUD/CAD, If you rely on the BBands both pairs seem to be stretching the upper line.

The Daily GB/JPY shows mid range BB as possible pull back top somewhere around 122.10* area, STOCH would have to hook down yet

The 4 hour is reaching the top of the Band and again projection is above 122, I would be looking for a pull-back to bottom of the yellow trend line…about 50 pips

IF, all other signals (STOCH,MACD, Candle etc) are in line…most likely within next 4 to 5 hours should be a “go” or fugetaboutit

The AUD/CAD  just broke higher as I was posting this…off the table for now..unless you want to scalp some retrace

Happy Turkey Day to all celebrating…

With all the panic going on over the Euro/ Debts and Super Poop in general, I pulled up a couple longer range charts on the GBP-USD (Pound/dollar)

Just to get a little perspective, a Monthly and a Weekly:

The top of the Fib -Nov 07 to Bottom Jan 09

Working it’s way into a wedge pattern but staying in a range. At present it is still 100+ pips from the 23.6 fib line and 300+ from the bottom trending wedge line. The trend is still down looking at the 50 sma, MACD and RSI  with STOCH  just above the 20 line

WEEKLY:

I’ll be keeping an eye on the 23.6 for a rest, if it breaks down then I’ll be watching the trend line<—if that breaks I’ll start to join in and slam the panic button. We are seeing lower lows so I am expecting a break of that fib line. The 50 sma is flattening out a bit and momentum seems to be slowing, still trending down

Unless you are trading with a 500 pip stop, MOST of us (including me) are just looking at longer time frames to get a clearer view of what is really going on as Media can screw things Royally listening to minute by minute Euro snarking, Super Grouping and ‘bamaBashing.

On my own blog I’ll be adding a few more charts (US-CAD, AUD-US and EUR-US)…Just about same “tells”

I’m long yen (small position) and will add to it if it drops more…> intervention and lots of it, with a track record of ballistic viagrated moves…small is good

In general I will post in the evening (blog) for moves over night I am looking for and that is about as much exposure as I am willing to dip into.

For the most part I’ll focus on currency pairs, looking for “Range” patterns. I won’t try and “predict” futures here of what a particular currency will be doing <—I’ll leave that to others.

For the moment 3 pairs are jumping out: Eur/Jpy, Chf/Jpy and Eur/Chf …(euro/swiss and Japanese Yen) all trading 50 pips+/ .01 lot= $1.00, 1 lot= $10.00 per pip