haha noseblunt! hell, backside, it’s more exciting than fs anyway.

not at this exact moment, but it will be soon. I know there is a demand for this unique approach and I like teaching it so it seems like a logical direction.

A lot of my overall subscriptions feelings were answered in this comment.

I need to design it so people learn and can apply, not just expect picks in the mail. My goal is to create a complete understanding, not excellence shrouded in obscurity.

Hey Arterial, thanks for reading.

I am not using either of those, just price.

I am using price to determine price compression. I think we have a dif meaning of compression.

BB is deviations from a 20d SMA. When you think of compression in those terms, it’s what happens when you compress a spring, then let go inasmuch as the price is “deviating from a mean less and less” (the spring), and presumably all the traders are stacking bets on one side or the other of a small price band, and once it breaks, they all need to reverse positions (letting go).

This is not how I look at it.

There are too many nebulous assumptions about what if and not what is. Suppose that 98% of the days’ trading is HFT, with zero o/n positions, and the net accumulation / distribution of stock from real position holders is 2% in the price band you are expecting this large move from? There is no way to know this and it’s the entire premise. What this means is the is no (or much less) edge in this setup that assumed. The premise is that many participants will drive price away from another price but it’s all based on an assumption of what others will do off of a second derivative data point.

The info is valid, it’s the application that strays. All indicators do is indicate and when you rely too heavily on an indication you can get screwed. (referenced here and here

Putting BB squeeze in the roasting chair (you can do this with ANY indicator to verify how efficacious it actually is yourself) I ask “what if?”

- Does a BB squeeze necessarily portend a move in any direction? No, for the reason described above. It just says price is deviating from a mean by a very small amount.
- Can volatility pick up, but not trend? Yes.
- Can price also stay muted? Yes.
- Can the reading remain “troubled” by an exogenous data point? Yes, all price data within a 20 prior bar window.
- is 20 the right number?
- what is the implication behind using 1 month volatility or lack thereof?
- Does a one day move out of a BB squeeze validate the prediction, or is there more?

With that said, my definition of compression is price characteristics consistent with players on the wrong side on the move AND my information advantage .

The ONLY way to have a positive edge or expectancy is with an information advantage. You can make a proof of this mathematical fact, a la 7th grade geometry class (in fact, Claude Shannon, the guy who INVENTED binary, first did this).

There is a flaw in the market structure that is an explicit byproduct of computer domination. Conveniently, computers operate on my signal/noise premise because of foundation of binary and boolean logic. Essentially, there is now conflation among asset classes and time frames in that all anything is is price because a computer needs an input with which to computer a boolean outcome and only price satisfies this spot. Not fundamentals. Price. We trade price, not fundies, computers react to price. Computers run the market. Thus Price and only price is our signal.

This factors into tenet 2. There are ONLY two states (a la binary) Signal, and Noise. We want signal, but only when we have information advantage. By definition (think of the scope of the market, the other participants, their resources, your personal knowledge and resources) our windows of IA are very small. There SHOULDNT be a lot of great ops, because then the presumption of your IA has to be lessened.

I could expound for hours and with countless examples of these generally and specifically. The whole point of what we do is to extract signal from noise. I would never use a system / indicator/ strategy that doesn’t specifically delineate the process.