If you go to my Chart.ly page you can see whatever my latest CBO video was. I will review the picks from the last CBO video I made.
Firstly, looking at yesterday’s trades, the new year started out strong with one-day returns:
It always is nice to kick off the year in the right direction.
Now let’s look at my last Compression Breakout Video.
In it, my top picks were $SGMO $STV $TEN $NNBR $HEK $CHTP.
Let’s see how they performed, and if my indicator lived up to task. Remember, unlike many who advertise about propriety and edge, my indicators explicitly identify top momentum stocks BEFORE they make the move, so if they fail in identifying the best opportunities each day, then they aren’t working.
Here is an annotated chart of old favourite FTK as a legend for the following charts:
SGMO – Returned 15% in 4 days, with a max of 17.5%. Still could easily justify holding a partial in the name, no stops near hit and another (valid) CBO today. But, ya know, biotechs.
STV - Stock popped 5% the next day, but then the company announced a secondary afterhours sending shares lower and stopping out at a larger than expected loss. This really sucks but it’s not controllable. It’s an exogenous event, but to gloss over it like it didn’t happen would be disingenuous.
TEN – The only dud as far as immediate reaction goes. This trade is not stopped out, but it also hasn’t advanced much. Today’s move was nice, and the largest drawdown was 2.4% which is small. Each CBO got you into a smoothly uptrending stock at a good price, though this one didn’t have the immediate gratification of a 15% move.
HEK – Up 14% in a straight line. The BuyPoints were largely great too.
NNBR – Up 21% in a straight line.
CHTP - Up 40% on drug news. Biotechs are scary but then can produce incredible returns. Biotechs may be a good time to use options, but then that presents other challenges.
Compression breakouts continue to succeed in their purported goals of finding momentum getting in before the move is going. Of course not all trades are winners or 20% ones at that, but in almost all cases, when there is an up move, there is a compression breakout. I find them, and ride them to the sky.
Does your system do that for you? It is possible to be self reliant and consistently in big winners.
The realcode for measuring the percent change since a condition is as follows:
52 Responses to SPYderCrusher Trade Ideas Review:
Noseblunt 20 stair, roll away. Is this a premium service?
haha noseblunt! hell, backside, it’s more exciting than fs anyway.
not at this exact moment, but it will be soon. I know there is a demand for this unique approach and I like teaching it so it seems like a logical direction.
A lot of my overall subscriptions feelings were answered in this comment.
I need to design it so people learn and can apply, not just expect picks in the mail. My goal is to create a complete understanding, not excellence shrouded in obscurity.
Where’s the sell signal on the CHTP chart? Is it still an “open trade” with a stop by your tade methology?
The initial target for CHTP would have been hit the next day where you sell half and trail the remainder at the entry price. On the next higher high, you move the stop up to the last prior pivot low less 10 cents. In this case you’d still be in the trade with a stop at 7.20 that is based off the 12/21 pivot low.
In this approach I try and let the market take me out and prove me wrong.
I see … so in this example you would’ve moved up to a final stop of 7.38 and got taken out on Monday.
Very good … Thnx
I’m not seeing the 7.38. In that example, I would have actually been out the next session. At time of that comment, price was above the 7.2 stop but the following day the low is 7.14, I assume I would have been hit
Is your compression algorithm the standard Bollinger Bands inside the Keltner Channels? If not, what are you using to determine price compression?
Hey Arterial, thanks for reading.
I am not using either of those, just price.
I am using price to determine price compression. I think we have a dif meaning of compression.
BB is deviations from a 20d SMA. When you think of compression in those terms, it’s what happens when you compress a spring, then let go inasmuch as the price is “deviating from a mean less and less” (the spring), and presumably all the traders are stacking bets on one side or the other of a small price band, and once it breaks, they all need to reverse positions (letting go).
This is not how I look at it.
There are too many nebulous assumptions about what if and not what is. Suppose that 98% of the days’ trading is HFT, with zero o/n positions, and the net accumulation / distribution of stock from real position holders is 2% in the price band you are expecting this large move from? There is no way to know this and it’s the entire premise. What this means is the is no (or much less) edge in this setup that assumed. The premise is that many participants will drive price away from another price but it’s all based on an assumption of what others will do off of a second derivative data point.
Putting BB squeeze in the roasting chair (you can do this with ANY indicator to verify how efficacious it actually is yourself) I ask “what if?”
- Does a BB squeeze necessarily portend a move in any direction? No, for the reason described above. It just says price is deviating from a mean by a very small amount.
- Can volatility pick up, but not trend? Yes.
- Can price also stay muted? Yes.
- Can the reading remain “troubled” by an exogenous data point? Yes, all price data within a 20 prior bar window.
- is 20 the right number?
- what is the implication behind using 1 month volatility or lack thereof?
- Does a one day move out of a BB squeeze validate the prediction, or is there more?
With that said, my definition of compression is price characteristics consistent with players on the wrong side on the move AND my information advantage .
The ONLY way to have a positive edge or expectancy is with an information advantage. You can make a proof of this mathematical fact, a la 7th grade geometry class (in fact, Claude Shannon, the guy who INVENTED binary, first did this).
There is a flaw in the market structure that is an explicit byproduct of computer domination. Conveniently, computers operate on my signal/noise premise because of foundation of binary and boolean logic. Essentially, there is now conflation among asset classes and time frames in that all anything is is price because a computer needs an input with which to computer a boolean outcome and only price satisfies this spot. Not fundamentals. Price. We trade price, not fundies, computers react to price. Computers run the market. Thus Price and only price is our signal.
This factors into tenet 2. There are ONLY two states (a la binary) Signal, and Noise. We want signal, but only when we have information advantage. By definition (think of the scope of the market, the other participants, their resources, your personal knowledge and resources) our windows of IA are very small. There SHOULDNT be a lot of great ops, because then the presumption of your IA has to be lessened.
It is a fools errand to understand all price movements. There are many thresholds of significance, but countless of insignificance. You need a strong understand of human reactions to price movements. I’ve studied these for thousands of hours. Not looking at charts, but studying price. There are more significant prices and thats what I focus on (who cared for insignificance? Not many. People program a computer using boolean logic to react to price. This means I focus my scope to the scope of significance.
Last (and definitely least) you have a situational positioning (a la a BB squeeze and the accompanying assumptions).
The CBO takes into account each question. I use a widely known (but infrequently utilized) flaw in market structure + price significance testing + situational positioning. Though I was lite on specific numbers and thresholds, I hope you have a better sense of the how.
I could expound for hours and with countless examples of these generally and specifically. The whole point of what we do is to extract signal from noise. I would never use a system / indicator/ strategy that doesn’t specifically delineate the process.
I think this is among the most vital info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The website style is wonderful, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers
Thanks with this wonderful article! It is definitely very valuable. I hope that you will continue posting your wisdom with us.
Hi Nice blog. Would you like to visitor publish upabout my very own sometime? In that case please tell me by means of e mail or perhaps answer this particular opinion since I subscribed to notices and can understand should you choose.
amazing bit! i will revisit read once more soon
Dead composed subject matter, Really enjoyed looking at.
Hello I like your wewebsite. Would you like to invitee post in my own someday? If that’s the case please let me know by means of e-mail or perhaps answer this particular comment simply due to the fact My partner and my spouse and i actually signed up for notifications and will understand if you do.
Great postal service, I deceive not seen till so cieakwej information. Well you’re here, thanks to you I learned a lot.
Hi! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you happen to be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Superb blog by the way!
Thank you a lot for sharing this with all folks you actually understand what you are talking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly also talk over with my web site =). We may have a link trade arrangement between us!
It is the best time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions. Maybe you could write next articles referring to this article. I wish to read more things about it!
Generally I do not read post on blogs, however I wish to say that this write-up very forced me to try and do it! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thank you, quite nice post.
Thanks for visiting This Lv Outlet Save On the web! Your store offers good quality http://www.zlouisvuitton.com mens side bags, Lv luggage, clutches, storage compartments, accessories on sale charges and big price reduction.
nice post thx i have bookmarked you’re blog.
Hi to every single one, it’s actually a pleasant for me to pay a quick visit this web site, it includes helpful Information.
I simply desired to appreciate you yet again. I do not know what I would’ve sorted out without the actual tips and hints revealed by you directly on this situation. Entirely was a real distressing dilemma in my opinion, however , observing a new professional fashion you solved the issue forced me to jump with gladness. I’m happy for this work as well as trust you know what an amazing job you are getting into training the rest by way of your web site. I am certain you have never come across all of us.
I in addition to my buddies have been studying the great items located on the website then instantly I had an awful feeling I never thanked the site owner for those tips. These young men happened to be stimulated to read all of them and have definitely been taking pleasure in those things. We appreciate you being indeed thoughtful and for making a decision on some impressive issues millions of individuals are really desperate to discover. My personal honest regret for not expressing appreciation to you sooner.
I?ve recently started a site, the information you offer on this website has helped me greatly. Thank you for all of your time & work.
I don’t know how you wrote this article with so much information in such an interesting manner. I am impressed. This is really good stuff!
Can I just say what a relief to seek out someone who actually is aware of what theyre speaking about on the internet. You undoubtedly know how you can carry an issue to light and make it important. More people must learn this and perceive this facet of the story. I cant consider youre no more standard since you undoubtedly have the gift.
Hello Jackson, if you are a new web user after that you have to go to see daily this site and read the updated articles at here.
It isn’t really the actual possession of good items that bring joy. It does not take capability to enjoy precisely what occurs. Happiness is surely an attitude.
videos de cul xxx de magnifique roulures qui baisent à fond et qui font des bouffardes du feu de dieu.
Thanks for the thoughts you are discussing on this weblog. Another thing I want to say is the fact that getting hold of copies of your credit report in order to check accuracy of each and every detail may be the first motion you have to perform in repairing credit. You are looking to clean your credit file from dangerous details errors that mess up your credit score.
Excellent goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to and you’re just too excellent. I actually like what you have acquired here, certainly like what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible. I cant wait to read far more from you. This is really a great website.
When operated 24 hours located in All day and calendar months, the majority of pastime takes place when the Manchester Stock market happens to be receptive. Too ensure the marketplace is actually conventionally even more risky mid-week, and thus calmer for Friday and even vendredi1.
Its such as you learn my mind! You seem to know so much approximately this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I believe that you simply can do with a few p.c. to drive the message home a bit, however other than that, that is magnificent blog. An excellent read. I will certainly be back.
changed solely by using a call of the
Very interesting topic , regards for posting . “What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error.” by Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron.
wonderful points altogether, you simply received a new reader. What might you suggest in regards to your put up that you just made some days in the past? Any positive?
I like this web site very much, Its a really nice berth to read and receive information. “Anger is a signal, and one worth listening to.” by Harriet Lerner.
Do you handle discretionary accounts.
This internet site is my breathing in, actually great layout and perfect content .
You got a extremely good internet site, Gladiola I discovered it through yahoo.
Real wonderful info can be identified on internet blog .
Basically to follow up on the up-date of this topic on your website and would genuinely want to let you know how significantly I liked the time you took to write this handy post. Inside the post, you spoke on how to in fact handle this problem with all ease. It would be my personal pleasure to get some far more concepts from your blog and come as a lot as offer other folks what I learned from you. I appreciate your usual wonderful effort.
As I website possessor I conceive the content here is very fantastic , thankyou for your efforts.
In total, it took me about 25 minutes to pull out this fantastic post. Thanks a lot.
It indeed does take quite some time to find great info. like this. Thanks a lot.
The amazing recent posts keep me coming only here several times over. Thanks a lot.
In total, it took me roughly 25 minutes to pull out this great post. Thanks so much.
It certainly does take quite a bit to find awesome information such as this. Thanks.
You made some good points there. I looked on the web to learn more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.
Par le fait De quelle façon comprendre celui-ci sans même avoir les équivalences indiquées par le maître d’œuvre ?
I want to confess that this post truely opened my eyes on this issue. Since long time I have been looking for this type of info. Definitely this question must be carefully explored.