I had reason to suspect that we’d get a positive close today.
I think my point was valid. I know it is. Hell, it’s valid for tomorrow too.
But look what I just said. Reason. Valid. Know it is.
Leave your reasons and subjectivity at home, and pay attention to the math.
My Breadth Indicator was clearly negative. I emphasized that. Don’t lose the forest for the trees if price action and suppositions call for a 1 to infinity point bounce but the sophisticated tool I use to measure market health is poor.
You want to be on the right side of the trades, follow my breadth indicator. It’s outsmarted every prognosticator, from the getting in on the February rally, to getting out at the end of April, before the flash crash, to not even buying the dip for a bounce until we actually had one for a week or so.
That’s pretty fucking excellent if you ask me, which is why I give so much credence to its readings, more than “what I think.” Once you realize “what you think” is subjective and a guess, you will feel more comfortable “trusting” a finely tuned empirical measurement of the market’s health.
One more point…there’s nothing wrong with guessing or supposing. What I think it wrong is betting on such suppositions. Even though I felt a bounce would come, I didn’t bet that one would materialize, I merely expected it. That’s the difference between losing money and being wrong.