Now that this most expensive and fucked up election in history is over, the markets are now facing reality. Why now? Because the Bullshit-O-Meter is no longer being funded by a multi-billion dollar advertising campaign. The attempt at self fulfilling prophesies have been thoroughly exhausted.
All I’ll say is this about that: Most of the media is more full of shit than the politicians themselves. It’s not the Talent, but rather Editorial Directors and Executive Producers who decide what you will know and think every day. Only you’ll never know their names as they peddle their significant influence in anonymity. And don’t think that advertising dollars don’t have something to do with it. BTW–there are a few positive exceptions…
I’ve withheld my opinions on the ex-candidates and will continue to do so here. You don’t read me for my political opinions, but sometimes I tweet them @createcapital
Enough, now on to the markets:
Do you think anything is different now than it was last month or last quarter? The world’s economies will be “muddling along” for a long time to come, like maybe a generation. There is no changing that without an elimination and repudiation of most debt and that won’t happen without a massive crisis. The “chewing gum and twine” economic policies have provided a suitable illusion for those with capital and so the can-kicking continues.
We are now faced with the need for liquidity following Hurricane Sandy. I don’t think $50 billion will cover it, and it is not a “growth event” like some will tell you. It is just bad for everyone, period and I won’t get into the details as it is well covered, but the reality is far worse.
The market’s correction will continue to about SPX 1350 which will test a long-term uptrend line. Technicals are just as simple as that. But the issues of not just slowing growth, but actual shrinkage (no Costanza) remain front and center. There will be no real corporate spending, just hoarding of assets. And if SPX 1350 breaks sharply, another one hundred points will come off quickly, even with Uncle Ben at the helm.
And Apple remains front and center. From the date of Job’s death to its peak it rose $325 or 85% in less than a year. It has corrected about half of those gains in these few weeks. It will find big support in the low to mid $500 area and will begin to ”settle down” shortly.
It has certainly been a wild season and people are exhausted, especially in the Tri-State area (no Dufenshmirtz). Thanksgiving and the holiday season are here but I do not expect it to be “normal” for individuals or the markets. I’m ready for a vicious fourth quarter that goes against historic market norms or seasonality.
13 Responses to Problems? Same As It Ever Was…
Looking for Perry the Platypus.
If we label that some kind of technical pattern, perhaps…
all the best scottie
the day & age of epic & extreme storms, so-called natural events (earthquakes,fires, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornados, floods, droughts, pests & pestilences, etc) have arrived and 1st world nations will not be spared
obama says there will be a brighter tomarrow… how many days til tomarrow? years, decades?
a generation or two…
this bear market will end in the next 3 years.
but I want my Turkey and Santa rally !!!
i want my flash crash and i want my flying cars..they promised me flying cars when i was in grade school in the 60′s
but no, we still have the internal combustion engine…unreal
This is going to be it for now…
Textbook perfect Bulkowski “bullish descending and inverted scallop” just formed in the AAPL daily chart
I mean, textbook clear. I throw charts around , frequently. But, its rare to see one this vivid.
Maybe its a good thing it lost that bullish descending wedge. Like a dying star, it has given birth to a nebula. Or , ideally, a sharp bounce to 630.
Interestingly enough, Bulkowski did not first publish this pattern until 2004.
all I have to that say is “wow”…
Scott, Did you ever get Power?
Scott, didn’t you have some kind of theory about how some of the banking industry still supported Obama, even though Romney got a ton more contributions from banks than O did?
I think this is important in the markets, because some say that this week’s decline was due to a TBTF bank hissy fit, due to Romney’s loss. It certainly seems quite possible.
Would TBTF’s keep crashing the markets on & on, due to their candidate’s loss and/or the prospect of being more regulated by a Democratic administration? Or would they stop at 1350, having just sent a “shot across the bow” warning that they will crash the market if they don’t get what they want from the government, despite not having contributed much to the winner’s campaign?
Am trying to understand the effects of the TBTF’s on the market. This seems complicated by the fact that Romney claimed not to want Bernanke to stay as Fed Head while O clearly wants Ben to stay– although R changed his mind a lot so no one knows what he really thinks.