Economic reality has been divorced from market action since June 4, when the QE-Whatever rally began earlier than in previous years. It is also when Europe took a page from our Federal Reserve and began to print in earnest.
Anyone looking to do anything other than follow the uptrend was severely financially penalized. And in order to make money, you had “to believe” and view the world through Costanza glasses.
My thesis was/is that economic reality will eventually take hold and bury anyone stupid enough to stay in anything longer than three weeks. So far my thesis has been only somewhat incorrect. Free money will do that to a market.
But my other supposition was/is that Obama will win the election unless “They” can crash the stock market two weeks before the election. Given how the stock market has more than doubled over Obama’s term, the market is the only Policy Tool that has “worked”.
But now, with 2 weeks to go before the election, it is being “leaked” that Bernanke will soon be finished. And in the NYT no less! This is the reason for the market’s fall. Not that Romney is winning, because he is not. Really.
Uncle Ben’s Free Money Regime has been the sole reason for the stock markets performance. Remember, earnings are actually falling while the markets have been rising. And the market’s leadership has been clearly faultering. That is an untenable fundamental and technical backdrop.
Am I a conspiracy theorist? Is my hat made of Tin foil? Many would say affirmative. But mark my words, Ben or no Ben, the policy of Free Money Forever and ZIRP will be with us for a long time to come.
9 Responses to Two Weeks to the Day…
who do you think is gonna win?
I will not be voting as I have a distain for both candidates. Obama
bite your tongue
until 1375 gets broken DECISVIELY, 5 letters:
btw, some guy on cnbc was a guest and was a friend of ben a couple weeks ago, he stated then that ben had no desire for a 3rd term…sorry, i can’t remember who it was
and obama wins btw..this is just noise and gives the talking heads something, to, um, talk about
this too shall pass
one more ramp job, THEN we sell and GS had a negative divergence at the highs the size of nebraska..just sayin
Crashing the stock market would not matter at this point, we are too close to election day. Most people are not closly tied to the stock market and would have no valid analysis of a stock market crash. It might even work against Romney in an anti-capitalist way.
I disagree, people’s minds are certainly mostly made up at this point… but whether or not voter turnout is high among democrats/republicans depends on the market. If the market is crashing republicans will want to act now and vote him out. The democrats will be a little more deflated and less likely to turn out and vote.
However, Obama’s absentee ballot strategy and community organizing will give him a big head start again.
i agree..most people i know voted already by mail
the year is 2012..anyone who stands in line to vote at this point, is an idiot
one day we’ll be able to vote online..did i mention the year is 2012?
i want my flash crash and i want my flying cars..they promised me flying cars when i was in grade school in the 60′s
but no, we still have the internal combustion engine…unreal