So, the past week had witnessed a fast retracement to the halfway point of the major indices trading range for the year. It was almost technically perfect, peaking between the yearly highs made at the end of QE2 (the Magical Mystery Rally) and the panicky lows set a few weeks ago at SPX 1100 when the government tried to slit its own wrists.
During the five day, low volume bounce, many market participants actually thought that the long-standing trendine break, the massive internal technical breakdown in the broad breadth of stocks and the shellacking of many momentum favorites would all simply go away because Uncle Ben said that “maybe” he would be making things “all better”. “Just follow the near-term market” is the near-term gambling mantra of the youngsters who’ve heard about Bear markets but never actually experienced one. Or two.
Someone even asked for my firing from IBC because I was not bullish enough. Don’t worry, my feelings weren’t hurt as I am used to criticisms when all the market has is “hope”. I actually received death threats when I turned to the darkside in the year 2000. “The market doesn’t need analysis like that” I was told. And if I persisted I was a “dead man”. Reality eventually settles-in even though the stock market is one of the most proficient and consistent liars in world history.
I will not run through the litany of negatives as you know them well. The hope is that the FED prints another trillion dollars for the market to enjoy. But the last $600 billion will be completely given back as those gains have evaporated to money heaven, unless you bought Treasury Bonds. It’s been one helluva way to wash good money down the drain. Remember, we are Japan and you already enjoy rates testing their crash lows. They are going lower and you will get a 2.5% mortgage perhaps next year, if you qualify. If you live on the interest, screw you.
I hope you are not surprised that the government is now suing banks for the billions we just allowed them to make acting as a middle-man for the QE’s, plus a little extra. Those who needed to know, knew for weeks, maybe months that this was coming. Just look at the charts. The only way for the property mess to be realistically resolved is legally as Lawmakers won’t touch it with a ten-foot pole. They know who butters their bread…
Perhaps the “Day of Reckoning” has come as Europe is imploding and we have yet to tell them that “everything’s gonna be alright”. It sure looks more and more like my prediction that we give back all of QE2, near SPX 1050 will become a reality. Perhaps I am being conservative. After all, the lower markets go the more QE will come soon after, right?
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You’ve got my vote Scott! Keep a plugging away. Sounds like you’re surviving the seasonl storms. Great!
you have some (if not the best) daily tweets correctly analyzing the market. I appreciate what you contribute to the stream. Not bullish enough. Tell Fly to ban that person. I am not either a bull or bear but to make money regardless of the market’s direction and you greatly help folks like me. Thanks Scott.
not + either= neither and in that situation one should use bull NOR bear rather than bull or bear. 🙂
Wow, I am hunting for a second home down South, and to think I could potentially get (yes, I qualify for a mortgage with a credit score of 805 for starters) one at 2.5% is unthinkable. However, cash is sitting in a saving account making nil. I guess that’s better than losing money in the market.
Cant wait to refinance down to those levels. Thanks for sticking to your guns Scott.
Thanks Scott. Always enjoyable.
LOL, Scott. You’re fired!
Someone asked that you be fired?
Seriously?
______
Indeud, there are some that come around here that have no imagination and no respect for the gentlemen of iBankCoin.
Somebody on Fly’s blog comments a week or 2 ago maybe, I can’t remember who, was all upset that Scott was bearish and so suggested to Fly that he get rid of Scott.
Probably somebody long on margin who wanted to hear bullish views only. Some people not only talk their book but also have a cow if everyone else doesn’t talk the same book.
I think the guys name was P. Fugman
Insane in the membrane. The indomitable union of iBC will never be trampled.
http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/197228.html
Fired? Death threats- It wasn’t me was it?
I’ll take care of those yutzes. Now go home and hug your kids, Pal.
Firing someone for doing profotable trades with his own money? Musta bin a mut fund manager…..
Firing someone for doing profitable trades with his own money? Musta bin a mut fund manager…..
I will even thumb up this comment the second time.
IMHO of course, the market started to truly fall apart when Copper Topped. Just one big bubble playing out.
Wheres that guy dipchit whose been here all since Jan claiming that 1260 was the “generational low”. He was the big man here before when we were mid 13’s, but now its turn to crap he disappears.
thumbs up for everyone commenting except for the assholes that said you should be fired…
i Got got BANNDED from Wino’s site for leaving BEAR Comments !
i think it was the advice on which car i should buy after the last S$P Fall!
it was donald trump,i swear. you’re fired.hahahahahahahahahahahaha
Rock on! debt deflation vs. intervention – battle royale
Fly, generally, does PPT suggest we fade the market (S&P) when the hybrid score is around 3 and buy when the hybrid score is around 2.25? As for stocks, do we look for the repective OB/OS levels in the Hybrid scores and do the same?
I can relate to this more than you know.