Upon waking up this morning, opening my eyes to another gap higher in the market, I decided to plan a day of activities to keep myself from wavering my stance in the market. Up first, I decided to put some window blinds up that I have been putting off for months. After about three hours of handy work (I am not a handy man) I decided to check the market, and much to my delight, the fade was in progress.
I immediately yelled to my wife, “What’s next?” She yells back, “The clock, hang the clock.” Ok, I can do that, about an hour later (I am not a handy man) the clock was hung, and I get back to checking in with the market. This time, things looked even better, things were getting destroyed, $BIDU murk’d, $SINA murk’d, $NFLX murk’d, $WYNN Murk’d, $PCLN murk’d. I was so elated, I decided to do more activities while wishing death upon the market.
After organizing a few junk draws and grabbing a quick workout, I decided to check back in the market. And, much to my delight $ERY & $DRV were hitting highs of the day and I was feeling like a king. Not only did I get shit done for the day, but I did not get shaken from my positions.
At this point, I got excited, really excited. I decided to stop my activities and start watching the market tick for tick as Armageddon part II was upon us. And then, out of the blue, I started seeing greens candlesticks form one after another on my bullshit TOS charts, and before I knew it, the market was green.
Well, so much for destruction upon the market, but at least I got my honeydo’s done.
I swear this market reminds me on 2008, headfakes in every direction, whipsawing traders in every direction, until everyone was inside the funnel. If you are new to trading, I suggest you either sit out here, or pick a side and stick to it (always make sure stops are in place). The worst thing you can do is switch from long to short, short to long, until you churn your account to the ground.
I’m still leaning short, and will continue to use copper as my guide.
Top pick: Activities
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Brilliant. Nice work, Rage.
Haha, thanks Zombie. I’m a fan of you work as well.
A++++ write up Rage, had me laughing, and so true
‘Sup, Danny. Nice vid today.
thanks Zombie, quite obliged
This is all true.
I saw it happen on my bullshit TOS platform as well
That’s the problem, it’s TOS’ platform.
—-
OT – since I am unable to comment on Fly’s post on consecutive months, I’ve written about that condition at great length if anyone is interested.
Here are two articles that offer some explanation of the pattern.
About consecutive weeks closer, discussion of various patterns
August Consecutive Monthly Closes Lower Analysis and Backtest
Anyway, you don’t want to front run it, but 6 months in a row lower is very rare. If next month is higher, it only needs to close 1 point higher to break the chain. Or maybe S&P reverses by 150 points. Or whatever. It doesn’t tell you the order, like, do we crater -10% to new lows, then just monumental short squeeze over last two weeks to close +2% for the month? Sure. Anything. But the pattern is difficult to predict and the trading won’t necessarily be “better” if the scenario I described is close to what happens.
Given that you don’t know the order of highs or lows, or if the month will even close positive, and that if it actually does, it could be 1 – infinity points, the best thing you can say is that the 7,8,9th inning of the sell of is here before some bounce but that it doesn’t exclude some errant grandslam walk off homer in the ninth to either direction if I’m gonna take the baseball analogy a step further.
I’m thinking the exact same thing.
SWOOSH lower, then rally.
Write it down, if October closes negative, Chess will SUCK HIS OWN DICK.
I had a similar experience. I am in West coast and had surgery all day. I am net short the market and when I started my first case the market was up and I was in deep red. I was bummed during the first case that lasted 2 hours and then when I checked Russel it was barely up. during my second case the epinephrine was flowing and the music blasting in the OR. two hours later the market was negative, my TZA positive and by longs were all good, nothing could be better. then came the third case, the music was even louder, the speed and percision of the surgery was to the max, the case was done in 1.5 hour, market had closed by then and to my surprise I got SHOMPED.
nice post
Indeud, fishing saved me 2 days ago.
I’ve been flipping long to short for the last month and have been killing it! The best thing you can do is stay fluid and don’t sell yourself to hard on your convictions… 90% cash 10% short now, may pick up some drv or agq tomorrow…no promises though…
@freefall, nothing wrong with playing both sides and staying fluid, please don’t misconstrue my post. Hats off to you for killing it.
No I understand, if you’re new to the game this is prolly one of the worst environments you can wonder into… like testing the waters in pond of piranha…
cheers,
-=ff
That’s my day too! Last hour was “Oh, noooo, not again!” Grinder!