For the next week, my focus will be on energy and energy only. I have no desire to trade anything else as I feel we have a golden opportunity in front of us. Let me explain…
Given the fact that we have a major hurricane headed into the Gulf coupled with everything going on with Russia and Georgia, oil was barely up today. To me that signals the commodity wants to trade lower, (but at the same time has taken such a beating that it could bounce significantly).
This is a perfect scenario. Let’s say the cane misses the Gulf– everyone will be rushing for the exit sending oil prices below $100. Let’s say the worst case happens, and the cane heads straight for the rigs– we could easily catapult higher.
My focus will be to watch the weather more than the ticker. As of right now I am heavy in oil. Should the “deacon of death” move course, I will move course and switch all my efforts to shorting these same names. Should the cane miss, I believe there will be a better trade in shorting the group, they will DIVE!
I was speaking to Gio earlier today about this same scenario. He likes this trade, long Oil/Short Coal. This just makes sense, but I will have him explain further. Look for a post later tonight.
Note: I hear many say it’s wrong to profit from disaster, I call it a hedge on my life.
Need another Hurricane play? Try T-3 Energy Services, Inc. [[TTES]] , the company designs, manufactures, repairs and services products used in the drilling and completion of new oil and gas wells, the workover of existing wells, and the production and transportation of oil and gas.
The trade: The stock is sitting on the 200 MA, buy here with a stop below the 200.
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Enough already with this gay play on the storm. Its gonna be a non event (youll see). Then, you will be turned out like a punk in prison.
Also, its gay to be so vocal about how you win if the storm is a big one, but you also win if it turns out to amount to nothing….not true
If you are going to own a trade, then own it. Eihter you have the long energy trade on, and if it works out, your banking coin. If it doesnt though, your not banking coin, your gonna get ass raped and lose money (oil 105-write it down)
Its never a win-win Ragin.
Oh man, sorry Ragin, I got home real late tonight. was out playing guitar and singing with some talented girls from the Bay Area. I’m so zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. I’ll try to post it tomorrow intraday. But for those who can’t wait, I am already long a few energy stocks like CLR, GMXR, IEO… but I will shorting coal… PCX and JRCC (maybe JRCC, if opens red).
Joey.. throughout summer I was wondering why everyone was complaining about the high cost of gas here in Hawaii (near $5 a gal). I was like, just buy a few oil/energy stocks. So while people sat and complained about how the laws of supply and demand was driving prices up, I was “hedged” or “invested”, and felt like I was getting gas for free.
It makes you feel a little better about your trade, no?
Gio,
Lots of spit flying around on the site yesterday about how people were “all in” on energy based off the storm.
By what people were writing you would think that this is the first storm forming that could break towards the Gulf and casue some damage (or at least the first they have tried to trade)
People need to calm down, its not going to be a big deal
I compare it to the first time I saw a Playboy. I got all giddy and chubbed up. Only to realize weeks later, once the pages were all stuck together, that it wasnt a big deal. Once youve seen one set of tits and wah-gina, youve seen them all
You know what I mean?
Off to shave my palms.
WEL breaking 3
Joey Boots:
Blow a horse.
Gustav is coming and he’d pissed.
GIO,
Let’s hear more about those talented Bay Area chicas…
Cajun,
Please keep us posted on your moves in ENER.
Thx
What jabrone said it was wrong to profit from disaster? Why? You aren’t steering the storm towards civilization. Mother Nature is doing that. You are just smart enough to capitalize on it. I wouldn’t feel bad at all about it.
Joey,
You mad because you missed the gift, NOV.
This site is about banking coin, regardless.
There will be a monster trade when this storm is over, and that will be to short energy.
But, to say this storm is a non-event? I’m already banking with all my energy calls.
Rex, After going through a few things with Gio, I have decided to keep my whole position in ENER through earnings.
I don’t advise people do the same, but it’s what I am doing.
Joey Boots, you’re a little weird, man.
Ragin, I totally understand what you mean by hedging to protect your life. It’s one of the things that keeps me invested in the market even when it gets frustrating. It’s reassuring to me to have some assets in a place that a whim of the weather can’t break it into splinters, or trash all the inventory for my business. It’s diversification in a way.
I hope you never have to deal with FEMA, Ragin.
Cajun,
I’ve been planning on keeping my ENER too! Solars have been slaughtering earnings and I’ve been banking coin. I don’t see how ENER can disappointed at this-a point.
Believe me, ENER can disappoint– anything can happen.
However, I feel it’s worth the risk.
GL.