iBankCoin
Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,360 Blog Posts

A Quick Look At The Dow

Head and shouders pattern with the (200 MA) right at the neckline. A close below the 200 day will be devastating to the market.

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19 comments

  1. Danny

    Yup, looks about right.

    ATHR broke down.

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  2. Woodshedder

    Cajun, the Dow has been beneath the 200 day moving average for almost all of 2008.

    Your chart reflects the 200 week moving average, or an average encompassing over 4 years worth of weekly data.

    If you want to use the 200 day moving average overlaid on a weekly period chart, then you would set your average to 40. 40 week moving average corresponds closely to the 200 day average, and the 10 week moving average corresponds closely to the 50 day moving average.

    I agree on the huge head and shoulders. Try drawing your line from the Feb 07 lows through the March 07 lows to get a really good neckline.

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  3. CubsRock

    I agree with you Wood, but look at where we bounced. Odd no?

    http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/9207/dji1jw6.jpg

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  4. Jakegint

    I think Rage was right to use the 200 week line. That’s been traditionally “the bottom” or “the line of death” depending on what time period you are looking at.

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  5. Woodshedder

    Jake, who said anything about being “right?”

    All I said is that it is not the 200 day average. It is the 200 week average.

    Looking 20 years back, the 200 WEEK moving average has seemingly acted as support. I have only one period in 20 years when the Dow traded beneath its 200 week moving average and that was Summer 2001 – Fall of 2003.

    However, I think today’s bounce is more about retesting of Jan and March lows than 200 week support.

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  6. Cody

    what the fuck is wrong with AMZN you said it was going to 90?

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  7. boca

    Cody, didn’t you have a stop?

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  8. Gwar

    Cubs

    Is your red line the 200 week. I can’t chart it up where im at. Need info

    thanks

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  9. CubsRock

    Weekly, very close to breaking down.

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  10. Aris

    we’re going to break.

    no rate increase, and oil is going to trade up and break these bank-buying clowns.

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  11. Gwar

    I think Prospectus has the right opinion:

    http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/06/24/prognostication-and-ramifications-re-the-fed-tomorrow/

    But I guess we will have to wait and see

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  12. Hybrid 08

    DEATH TO RF

    13.06 yeild!!!!!

    Ya, fucking right.

    It has to cut it.

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  13. Jakegint

    Hy —

    You think they’ll cut that FMBI as well? I can’t imagine they spring it “day before.”

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  14. Hybrid 08

    JakeGint

    I do. But I see RF getting cut first- theyre in trouble. My guess is by next Friday (if not before)RF comes out and cuts/raise.

    Goldman called:
    KEY
    FITB
    RF
    CMA

    So far they nailed KEY and Fifth Third (I was short both and woke up to being up huge on both). Looks like RF is next on the list.

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  15. Hattery

    Some names I came up with in a half-awake/half asleep state.
    short side
    I like PDA, BNI, BAM very nice

    watch CLR for lopsided H+S confirmation (difficult to see, look at 3 month)
    ALEX bear flag
    others: LDG, HXL,DIVX, IPG,
    FRS (very small cap no options put head in blender at own risk)

    Long
    PBT a “house’s money dividend” play, ex date Thursday, broke out today
    ONXX -failed to follow through today, but may bounce on the retest.

    For those who can trade stocks on crack:
    NTI (I like), CNTF FRG, HLF, IDSA, EMKR, ARTW,

    Triangles developing (potential straddles): V (looks to be the short side… watch MA to breakdown), SOLF, AKNS,
    CHIC, CONN, ACTS, JADE, ULTR, IIVI

    let me know if any in paricular stand out to you.

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  16. Hattery

    MA breaksout of potential H+S
    expect the long side of V to break.

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  17. alphadawgg

    Hattery,
    MA is skitzo [sic]. Egregious breakout after my sell signal triggered yesterday. Can’t win them all.

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  18. Cajun

    took down some V

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