I’m watching these rusty shorts fail time and time again to break 1666 on the spooz in the most non-eventful trading session of the week and it got me adding long exposure.
I bought OCZ and then I bought OCZ again. I bought some FSLR too.
These purchases were financed by sales of BPZ early on at 2.33 which was a pretty fancy fill and sales of Z at 64.14 which is only decent. I still own pieces of both.
Cash, it’s low: 6 percent.
I would have loved to play some Friday lotto too, but my piker Think or Swim account got the 90 day ban hammer lol. I totally forgot about that pattern day trader rule, but I like to segregate my pure degenerate money to ToS, my swing money to Fidelity, and my futures money to Mirus.
No trades in the futures. If I don’t trade all willy-nilly, I get to smoke a stogie this afternoon. No setups have triggered today.
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”
2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I took my first scale in O. You have to get paid when the market pays you. Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.
I took my first scale on TPX. It’s still my largest position and top pick. Next target is $50.
I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.
I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):
I was having a modestly red day in the futures, but I stuck around and traded through the Ben, and now I’m happy to go home very green!
I bought two dips, sold two rips…Ben is a really good guy.
There was so much selling pressure today, especially after the FOMC pop was faded, that I knew any upward momentum could get these shorts running for their dear, stupid, lives. And Ben delivered the crack rock. As a matter of fact, he’s not even satisfied with the 6.5% unemployment threshold initially rolled out during the taper talks. He’s convinced we’ll need to keep on easing well beyond that, blessing the market with capital gains until everyone is back to work.
Obviously this news is very bullish for TPX because, as unemployment drops, procreation must increase. The safest way to procreate is within the confines of your bed. So get a nice one, yes?
Anyone want to take bets on where we open tomorrow?
It’s a long way until 9:30am…
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I dumped AAPL for a scratch after riding the name through a trough. I can’t get excited about this name because it’s literally falling behind the power curve. That’s dangerous in any business. My assistant mocks my ghetto 4s about once a week and then changes the channels with her Galaxy. It has the infrared beam like your teevee remote. Plus I wanted to sell it at yesterday’s low, so why not sell it today, near the highs? It can go to $1000 and I still won’t regret this decision.
I scaled off some Z as it pokes around near the all-time high.
I cut my ANGI long because I don’t have patience for it when YELP is crushing, Z is crushing, and ZNGA is flirting with me. What was once a 6% gain was booked for a 5% loss.
All of this left me feeling cash heavy aka homo erotic. So I scuttled into DDD and SD. DDD is ¾ size and SD is ½ size.
I closed the day 80 percent long with TPX of course being my largest position because my top pick continues to be TPX, got it?
The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap. This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.
Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’
With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day. None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations. The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse. It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.
Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much. I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.
My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well. When one is feeling down, the other is up. Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much. You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment. I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.
People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning. What the fuck? You start a business.
ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap. This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must. My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.
FB looks kind of hot, finally.
My LED stocks are getting hammered today. Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward. I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.
AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.
F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.
I’m currently at 13 longs. I prefer a max 12. But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.
You’ll hear reports this afternoon about how the market gave up its “POMO Pump” and how we’re going to hell in an Egyptian hand basket. You’ll also read two or three articles speculating about Friday morning’s Employment Report. Bears want a good number, odd no? Did we close off the high of the day? We did. Did Fords!? No.
On the surface, today did nothing. If you sleep at night, and couldn’t care less about the picture our overnight markets paint, you awoke to a modest gap lower, you bought it, you ate a hoagie, and then you enjoyed capital appreciation, like a good American.
Completely aside, did you see the abortion protestors and their haters getting “Hail Satan” trending on twitter? For a moment I thought UNXL reversed. Protestors continually blow my mind…where does one find the time? Then again I care about nothing.
AIXG started working today, finally. I want to have a nice, stable, long term relationship with AIXG, none of this run and gun business.
O has several traders on the edge of their seats. On one hand the stock is way oversold. On the other hand, the momentum is yet to truly shift. We’re in the courting stage where everyone’s nice but not being completely real, you know what I mean? I’m yet to reach my initial profit target at 44.44.
ANGI looks so ready and I look forward to dropping bombs on the paraquat who called me a bag holder citing the .com bubble. LOL
Z however, continues to be a bumpy ride. I still like the look.
That’s all my thoughts. Have a safe holiday everyone. I love me some fireworks, but I never “hold the mortar tube.” You shouldn’t either.
Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it? Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.” And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!” This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…
…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.
I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection. Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.” You shouldn’t. I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.” Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.
We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away. SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked. We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions. You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship. That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.
It’s a totally new world we live in. Get out your space helmets friends!
So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes. Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.
I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.
Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:
TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE
I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names. I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.
O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell. The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.
AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half. Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.
F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.
ANGI is still “meh”
CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.
GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.
Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions. The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.
The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19. Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.
The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4th of July. Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring. I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.
Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?
Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain. My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win. I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today. I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.
I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order. They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size. I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money. I continue to jump the gun on my setups.
That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.
I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount. However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices. I may not see them.
Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness? Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to. Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics. And what did I do? NOT JUMP THE GUN! I stuck my head in the sand. It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then. Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.
June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books. Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.
We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains. Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK? It seems unlikely. Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.
So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet. If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan. Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.
I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary. Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate? It’s simple really, like always. The wealthy, like always, they’re confident. They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index. One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed. Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed. Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it? The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load. Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.
iBC Loyalists:
Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds. They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position. Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet. UUUuughghgu! Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions? Yep, TPX.
Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name. I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction. Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?
I have 11 other longs aka peak position count. I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:
Yet the sellers can’t gain traction. Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out. The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress. All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.
Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today. I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues. The weekly chart suggests it could.
I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations. I hate when a house goes pending, BTW. When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes. This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up. For now, I’m ½ size.
These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry. So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary. The same goes for TPX. This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX. You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.
We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd. Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July? If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.
I’m still in FB, did you know that? I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good. This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives. Note: I don’t do FB.
Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names. I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:
AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION
