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Tag Archives: $Z

A Friendly Reminder That Everything You See Is Fake

Blocking out the news flow is difficult but the blissful ignorance that comes from it is worth the effort.  Remember if something is important, my well curated twitter stream will tell me.  Better yet, the professionals inhabiting the many rooms of iBankCoin will tell me.  Anything local will be filtered to me via family, colleagues, and friends.  This frees my mind to focus on order flow and sustaining and growing my revenues.

Some days however, often after eating too heavy of a lunch, my attention span degrades by the minute.  For that reason I mostly do not trade futures in the afternoon.  Instead I usually read, stare out the window, or look at Tina Fey nip slip pics.  Nip slips always get my a.d.d. all worked up.

Anyhow, today I closed green by 1.25% even though I was up a rock star 3% intraday.  I scaled off a bit of YGE.  I could afford to do so because I timed my entry perfectly. The market provided me 7% gains, you see, by the time we reached swing high.  I will book that bread any day of the week.  I now have a lower cost basis and as close to a risk free trade as you can get in the markets.

How about that AMBA?  I couldn’t be happier about tossing my Zillow shares in the dumpster to fund my AMBA purchase.  The old me would still be in Zillow. The dead fish action would result in me drawing faces on lemons with a sharpie and then tossing said lemons into my Blendtec emotionlessly.  The house would smell lovely as I died on the inside.

Zillow speaks to the selective nature of our market.  ChessNwine has been keeping this thought at the forefront of our trading mindset in his Weekly Strategy Sessions.  As a matter of fact, he brought my attention back to AMBA too.  I mean, it never left my watch list, and I am a total GoPro fanboy, but the reminder was a nudge on the shoulder if you will.

This AMBA trade has taken conviction.  I am glad to see mine coming back online.

Earlier I said this is all an appetizer, so you may be asking yourself, “What’s for dinner?”  Well my friends, LEDs are for dinner…and sloppy joes.  2013 is the year of the LED, they simply took the 3rd quarter off.  I have been financing these sleepy laggards with high level SHOMPPERY and 12631 magnificence, but it is high time they come online.  My top picks into the fourth quarter are CREE, RVLT, OESX, LYTS, RBCN, VECO, GTAT, and AIXG.

I like CREE the best as a company, RVLT the best as a young man’s speculative investment, and AIXG for their Germanic tribal nature.   I am long the trinity and will buy more of both after I spank a few more trades for stand up doubles.

I joined Le Doctour in BALT today.  I really just like the chart picture, you know me.  He does all the macro stuff.

Everyone is complaining about the way /ES traded today, but I had one of my better days.  When you have an idea of the context we are in, bobbing along the bottom with no conviction, you know to get the laser sight out and get damn good entries to allow you to get out before the things stalls and reverses.  We are learning over here and making a little bit of money while we do so.  From the high win rate comes larger position sizing and eventually scaling.  Then we make the big bucks.

Ah yes, I nearly forgot the point of this post—Everything you see is fake.  The dog and pony show in Washington over Obamacare and debt ceilings is all fake, jack ass es.  Do you really think any of this really matters, really?  I does not.  The terror threat elevation right at about 3:50pm?  Yes, fake.  Syria, real and sad, but so is every third world where cavemen kill each other for the best poppy fields.  Making noise about them is fake.  I have nightmares about a war on our land all the time because of these pundits and the terror threat bullshit. Even some nip slips are fake. I know, horrible times we live in..

Fear mongering from the glass half empty crowd is dangerous.  Avoid the losers who can’t drop it.

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We Stopped Going Down That Is The First Step

The intraday volatility was certainly in place today as risk came off the table.  The S&P printed ten handles of selling with a few healthy rotations to allow short entry.  The Euro dollar via the /6E was confirming risk off too, trading in tandem with the /ES before going flat around noon.

Since around 1pm the market stabilized and balanced out.  The question on every bull’s mind is are we at an inflection point where this countertrend rally comes to an end?  I saw an interesting tweet from @StevenPlace that we have only had four consecutive down days twice this year.  The sellers certainly have been effective in erasing the euphoria that ensued post #NoTaper so perhaps a third data point is on the docket.

I will cover key levels to monitor on the S&P tomorrow morning to gauge sentiment and a potential turn around Tuesday, but as we close I get the feeling we will see overnight rotations and a sizeable gap to manage in the morning.

My portfolio is down a sultry two percent, championed by the broken wings of RVLT.  The weakness in RVLT neither surprises nor upsets as it has been my expectation for weeks.  Hell, I think it prints fresh swing lows to really get people off their rockers.  Ah, the stock market can be so cruel.  I will continue to dollar cost average.

I earned about 50% of what I made last week today trading futures.  It is good to see some intraday life coming back into the market as we enter Fall trading.

I cut off my Zillow loss early on and moved the funds laterally into AMBA.  I may be early to the AMBA party here as it is still consolidating.  Dash cam, FTW.

Top picks into Tuesday’s tape: AMBA and ELLI (no position currently in ELLI #want)

I also want some Miley:

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Stay Focused on the Outcome

We could get together around a campfire and complain about the stock assassins and their research.  We could heat up a pot of baked beans while we jeer about the move in precious metals in the fifteen minutes leading up to the #NoTaper Fed announcement Wednesday.  Then we could sleep next to each other on the dirt staring up at the cosmos and cursing algorithms.

But that’s all loser talk, and I only like small doses of nature.

Instead, let us focus directly on what we can do.  Solutions if you will.

We can manage risk.  MHR is a different approach to entering stocks, I bought weakness.  Normally I enter alongside strength.  Traditionally I would have MHR on my watch list like it was, but I would wait for pricing greater than the last two days to show strength and momentum.  Then it would stall out like it did today and I would sit through a drawdown.  That method still works for me, but I’m working on anticipating the move a step earlier.  I could have already taken a profit in the name, but I am moving purposely slower on these stocks.

Zillow caught me off guard.  I saw it break my range, but I prefer to give stocks the benefit of the doubt meaning let’s see where it closes.  The volume profile below was very thin, we cut right through it.  I did not cut my loss.   Perhaps I will regret this but the stock behaved constructively after the panic abated.  I have managed myself out of uglier head fakes, and I have fumbled losing trades.  That experience helps.  As it stands, I am -6.43 % on a 10% position size.  Oh the humanity.

Zillow and CLF did however knock me off my high water mark.  CLF has not done me wrong yet.  Is the trade wrong?  No, it is only taking heat.  I will take my loss when it is wrong.  I lost my vision on this trade for a bit, but RaginCajun reaffirmed my vision.

There is gap supply coming into CREE.  You have to imagine all of those underwater folks are eager to cash in now that they are being made (partially) whole.  I put some trading capital into this name that needs to be separately managed from my investment.

A trade like RBCN makes up for 3 or 4 losers, this has been a forgiving market for longs.

I was green trading the ES this week, holding my own through some big waves.  This is the most exciting part of my week.  I cannot wait to build upon it next week and also to review my trades over the weekend.

I shut El Roi off before the Fed and have not turned him back on since.  I would imagine he is chomping at the bit to get his grubby algo hands back on the tape but first I must go through the ceremonial revamp of optimizing and chanting and such.

Overall I am just happy to be here, banking coin alongside some of the most insightful minds in trading.  If you have any tickers of interest or general trading/algo questions ga’head, ask me…I will answer them as best I can.

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From False Moves Come Fast Moves in $Z

I’m on the wrong end of this one right now, getting lemon juice squeezed in my eyes:

Z

Citron Research was clearly upset I called their masculinity into question.

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Finishing My Coffee

The market has been unable to compel me into action today.  Instead I have sat here drinking coffee and watching my peers rip the faces off of shorts with supreme ultra-violence.  My goodness, RaginCajun extracts a solid win off of EGLE, passes the baton to Le Fly and here we are, winning the relay.

One of my twitter buds was all over the shippers move too, well done @Apoms24 on the DRYS.

The day after a huge move, overnight or RTH, tends to be tricky intraday.  Therefore, I sat in the bleachers and enjoyed the view.

Book largest-to-smallest: CREE, RVLT, RBCN, AIXG, Z, MHR, FB, CLF, LO, F, IMMR, MJNA, and O

Cash: 20%

Tickers of interest: YGE, FSLR, ONVO, ZNGA, FRO, END, and GMCR

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Sipping From My Cup

I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades.  One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.

My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year.  I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE.  As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.

Let’s discuss RVLT a bit.  If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce.  To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail.  How do you like that?  I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally.  And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year.  Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares.  Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report.  The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position.  This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”.  It puts a foul stink on the whole move.  If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.

However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully.  Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes?  Wrong!  The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers.  If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs.  Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs.  And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit.  Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance.  Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.

Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END.  Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls.  It’s up to you to wrap risk around them.  I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.

My SKF has gone red by about three percent.  Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade.  I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over.  Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY.  Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.

END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references?  I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.

CLF is tricky.  It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life.  Do we trust it?  Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick?  TBD

In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.

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Pay Attention to the Winners

…not the losers in Washington DC.  The market sold off after hearing something from congress.  That’s as far as my analysis goes on news flow because it’s far from my forte…instead I suggest you turn your attention to Zillow.

Even with the jolt in interest rates today, $Z is strong and flirting with $100.00 like it knows what it’s doing.  You know what happens next, don’t you?  Zillow goes to $125, getting the phone number of the woman you’ve only mustered the courage to talk to all night.

Zillow is the winner.  You can be too.

As of this writing, I have no position in Zillow.  I do however have a long position in TRLA, Zillow’s not so cute but still fine cousin.

NOTE: Be sure to register on iBankCoin to comment.  It’s free, it keeps the miscreants at bay, and we love to hear your thoughts.

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ARE YOU WORKING YOUR WISHLISTS?

You know I am.  Today’s weakness is a good opportunity to look at your favorite names, the real winners, the ones that got away from you, the kippers, the big salamis, and draw out some risk profiles.

So far I’ve bought GS and RVLT.

I’m considering adding to my existing CREE repertoire, I will do so, slowly.

Remember AWK?  A blast form the past…I have my eyes on some for my slow money.

I sold off my FXY long, a pseudo hedge of sorts.  All the profits I had in the name could literally vanish with five or six words from SHINTZO ABE.  No thank you, I’ll talk my payday and move on.

I could be seen in the globex market shorting the $ES_F early on, it went well.

RAUL IS ALL OVER THE FINANCIAL WEBS, A FAST MOVING GHOST OF SORTS.

Cash levels have been reduced to a more reasonable 30 percent, which I’m eager to deploy into further weakness.

Think Zillow.

http://youtu.be/inqfLNb9zQQ

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Stupid Launch Pad – Didn’t Even Make Money

When you build a launch pad, delicately attending to every detail, and then it doesn’t make you any moneys – you want to take a bulldozer and smash it to bits.

Like when your do-it-yourself plumbing job goes surprisingly well until the end when you over torque a pipe and break everything.  Your inner monkey emerges and chucking the channel locks through the mirror seems the only logical reaction.

It’s better to tidy up your work, retool everything, and have another go at it.

GOOG and MSFT both disappointed after hours and are down.  QQQ and SPY are both pressing up against your favorite overbought indicator, and leaders are lagged all day.

We may see a down day or two…

The Philli Fed pumped up the market with vigor, only for us to spend the remainder of the day giving it back.  I suppose I state all of this because I’m near fully vested and only holding FXY as a pseudo-hedge.

My swing portfolio is red on the day, championed by TPX getting poleaxed.  Everything else did nothing fun.

I get a long on in the futures at a decent bargain and then the momentum vanishes and I sit around, not eating, waiting for like $100 more in profit.  Then I finally settle for my pittance and go eat a taco.

I’m still trading within the confines of my plan and I’m mildly profitable 4 out of 4 days as a result.  Somebody has to hold me accountable and that somebody is me.  Hell, I’m used to talking to myself what with the twitter and the blog, so self-enforced discipline feels normal.

I bulked up on ENPH and closed out DDD and Z.  I’m convinced the best way to play DDD is to buy some every quarter and never sell, but that doesn’t fit my fringe lifestyle.

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Quiet Morning – Unless You Pick Winning Stocks

The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew.  I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals.  The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did.  I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.

I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ.  They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues.  “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise.  There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales.  Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter.  If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).

I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows.  I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on.  This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.

My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention.  Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members.  Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.

DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions.  Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.

RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me.  I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent.  All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally.  RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.

I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips.  INVN appears to be more en vogue.

F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.

FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.

I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.

TPX is still my largest.  You will all feel its gentle wrath.

Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it?  (Raises hand)

That’s my book in a nutshell.  I’m considering an FXY long as protection.  Call it Kong hedging.  iBC is becoming a formidable beast.

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