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Tag Archives: $YELP

Positioned for a Rally

Taking yourself out of the proverbial shark tank that is the stock market for a few days leads to some interesting observations.  Once outside the tank, you’re better able to observe the water you’ve been swimming around in.  It’s a higher sense of self understanding, if you will.

After buying AMBA Tuesday morning, I’ve been inactive.  This is in part because the purchase took my cash down under six percent.  What little cash I have left must be used to average into CREE and RVLT should the opportunities arise.

Speaking of RVLT, I’m now minus thirty percent on my basis.  Investing, it seems, is a tricky endeavor.  On one hand, I know they have to potential to make hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting businesses with LEDS.  I also love the vertical model they’ve built with their recent acquisitions.  On the other hand, I’m in an ugly chart in a company that was up over 600 percent in one year’s time.  Yeah…

But I’m keeping my investor hat on and entrenching into the LED industry.  CREE, AIXG, and RVLT are multi quarter holdings.

Just before heading out last week, I increased my oil exposure.  Nice timing, yes?  I still have positions in END, MHR, and USO.  Until the Libyans find out they didn’t in fact kill Doc Brown because Mike Fox used the time machine to warn him to wear a vest, I’m sticking with these positions.  I may trim a bit of exposure into further strength.

I passed through no less than four po-dung towns on my travels, and in every case I depended on YELP to find my palatable food with a reasonable atmosphere.  I did the same in Traverse City, a much finer and top hatted community.  Why not use Google?  Because the YELP interface is BETTER, you jack asses.

ENPH and YGE are both lit sticks of dynamite.  I intend to stick said dynamite in the tail pipes of the shortmobile.

LO will succeed in addicting teenagers to Blu Eciggarets and I will collect a lovely coupon, much higher than any government or corporate paper, at little or no risk to my person.  Same goes for O, except for the teenager part.

IMMR, F, and FB round out my book of long positions.

I’ll be back this evening with an update on Bossram Alpha and El Roi, my drone strike robots.

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Wild Chop Gives Way to Selling into The Bell

It was another frustrating day of RVLT sucking wind only today it was accompanied by APP.  I’m a huge fan of the APP brand, so their ticker is a permanent fixture on my Always Stalking watch list.  When it fell out of the tight/multi-month consolidation I took it to be the head fake, the shakeout, before the actual move.  Well wouldn’t you know it, I was -10% on the name in a flash reminding me how important entries are on these low priced stocks.  I simply don’t have a ton of conviction here, so I cut my loss and moved on.

You know my thoughts on RVLT.

YGE was interesting today, being one of my largest positions and all.  I want better prices before parting ways with any of my shares.  They’re Chinese and solar, I mean, what’s better?

Yelp had a decent day and some clown ‘angel investor’ put on his big boy pants and bet five stacks Yelp will be out of business by 2015.  Oh, you bad.  He made his bet via FB, BTW.  Have you heard of the stock market, you coward?

Nothing else really materialized in my swing portfolio.

Meanwhile, you hear traders calling days like today a day trader’s dreams or a day trader’s environment and I’m pleased to report #BOSSRAM concurs.  On the session, Bossram Alpha took 12 trades covering three different cycles and went 12-for-12 to earn a staggering 13.75 handles.

Based on a one contract position size Bossram yielded $687.50 before commissions.  Considering the position size can increase by one contract for every $1800 earned, you can see the scalability.  All trades taken must have seen price to go through the entry and exit by a tick in order to validate the walk forward and provide conservative numbers.  I think it’s safe to say BOSSRAM does well in choppy environments.  Aka, this is the perfect fix for a momentum trader stuck with summertime sadness.

I’ve been overly excited for algorithms I’ve built in the past, so believe me, I’m still a skeptic.  But today’s performance was dead on with what I’ve seen occurring in my seven month back test.  ROBUSTO!

I look forward to taking the cycle live alongside my current /ES trading repertoire.

Be on the lookout for odd moves overnight, it seems like that kind of night…especially with the rare moon.

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Started Dipping In

Count me in on the dipper pool:

I’ve added to my CREE and YELP longs

The SPY isn’t out of the woods yet as the sellers are still pushing, but I see deals.

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Damage Control

I’ve been nursing a few position this morning, namely OCZ, which has me somewhat sidelined to the other opportunities our markets present.

In terms of momentum trading, this is where you buy YELP, down here in the trough, if it shows any signs of strength.

Several of my other stocks are in the red.  I wish some were more in the red than others so I could buy more, but the day is young.

Our morning idea in the $ES_F was to see some digestion of the overnight move because it took the markets into overbought territory.  The sellers had more than a mere digestion in mind and put us firmly into scenario 2 from the morning report which called for backfilling yesterday’s short squeeze.  That task has been completed and the buyers are right back on the scene, keeping us in the churn.

The buyers could turn this thing around by holding above 1686.75, and we would target an upside move to test the daily high at 1690.50.

 

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Equities Continue Their Clumsy Appreciation

The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap.  This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.

Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’

With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day.  None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations.  The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse.  It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.

Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much.  I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.

My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well.  When one is feeling down, the other is up.  Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much.  You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment.  I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.

People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning.  What the fuck?  You start a business.

ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap.  This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must.  My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.

FB looks kind of hot, finally.

My LED stocks are getting hammered today.  Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward.  I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.

AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.

F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.

I’m currently at 13 longs.  I prefer a max 12.  But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.

 

 

 

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This is a Lovely Room of Death

AceVentura

Guys, there must be down days.  And when we’re in the stratosphere, atop the treacherous K2, guided by our Sherpa—gentleman Ben—and a group of extorting Sherpa come and kick your pack mule down the mountain and demand monies…there’s going to be some casualties.  You may need to hunker down low and take some hits.  You need to be ready to sweep the leg.

As traders, we’re paid to take daily beatings from the market.  It hardens you.  HDGE was my worse loss of the year, trimming a cool three percent off my high water mark.  Guess what?  I crested my portfolio over that mark since then, and now I’m off my new peak by two percent.  It happens fast.   You have to keep your wits about you.

This may be the start of a peak-to-trough environment.  This can last weeks.  WEEKS!  Oh the humanity.  But before we can say that with any kind of confidence we need to see price acceptance below TWO, you heard me right TWO major areas of balance which are way above where this market could pull back and still be considered VERY constructive.

I’ll look at the primary and most actionable balance distribution in the morning.

These Stocks:

I booked some winners that were lingering, some losers that were fingering, and some scratches that were carrying curious implications.

YELP was cut early.  It was crowded, that’s how crowded flag breakdowns play out.

RGR was an early sale too.  I caught the swing low, it’s been dead fish forever, when that first crazy sell frenzy happened in the spooz this morning I booked it.

I sold JRCC as it butted up against resistance.  The Plan says I must sell logical price levels, even if it’s my last piece.  I can always buy it back at a better price, at least that’s my mentality.

I booked GS because the devil’s been shorting it, I had 6 percent plus gains, and the daily candle looked nasty.  Financials have been a big driver of this move, we could rotate out of them and still see the tape flat/higher.

I sold SCTY late afternoon, after adding to my position early.  Net-net I make over 10 percent playing this crack rock.  Awesome, except it was good for over 20 percent at one point.  A win is a win, I suppose.

I added to my CREE investment.  They’re a great company.  Remember, this is a multi-quarter hold after booking massive gains in the name trading style Q1.  I’m wearing my investor hat on this one.  That being said, it also printed a nasty daily candle.

I caught the breakout in IMMR early.  It’s this type of aggression that allows me to not experience much emotion when the breakout sputters out like this one did.  It has Fly power behind it, so I’m giving it room.

Bottom line: you’re surrounded by algorithms wielding meat cleavers, protect your neck with profit scales and stop losses.  My cash pushed way up into the bell, damn near 50 percent.  I don’t like lazy cash so I’ll be hunting tonight.

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That.Was.Awsome

These morning markets, I come to them every morning.  Much like The Zen Hunter alluded to about surfers, it’s an obsession—every day hunting waves to ride.

I put up these profiles, looking for where the waves can kick up.  Boy did a wave kick up today!  I have wins on both the long and the short side, easily my best day ever, earning 10 S&P points.  It was fun too.  And I stuck to the plan all but once.  My one deviation, an attempt to knife catch that free fall, was my only loss on the day.  So be it.  Stick to the plan or lose money.

Anyhow, that’s why we do all this work, for days like today.  They’re calling this the blow off top already.  I’ll hold my judgment for now, but I did cut my RGR and YELP longs in case the afternoon gets a little Nightmare on Elm Street.

Let’s look at these stocks and see what’s working.

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Getting Faded

It’s been another action packed day, albeit in a more concentrated bit of stocks.  I almost looked wrong in boasting about my sub $50 RGLD purchase when the morning dipped briefly below.  It should be noted that this was again a buying opportunity.  Although we’re not out of the woods yet on this long position, it has constructive written all over it.

YELP started flagging nicely just below $32 around lunchtime.  I added to my long thinking, “this is a good looking flag.”  When I took to twitter to blast out my actions to the world I saw no less than four traders talking about the exact same breakout.  The move was faded.again.  This trade could flush lower, just be aware of that.  We are all seeing the same telegraphed pennant at 52 week highs.  Build a solid risk profile.

I thought my reasoning behind staying long JRCC was interesting, but it received zero airtime.  If you’re into market dynamics, check it out.  I scaled a piece around the three handle and have a 1/3 runner left on the books.

I closed out CRZO because it printed an ugly daily candle.  I’m looking for constant gratification up here in the froth.  I’m not looking to wait out and peak-to-trough foolishness in names that I have zero conviction in beyond price.

Ironically enough and completely contrary to the prior paragraph, I held my SCTY runner and watched it melt like a cheap ice cream cone down 12 percent.  The position is still 8 percent in the green due to a sweet entry and there are gains booked to back it up.  I’m not going to let one down day scare me out of the cocaine party.  It will take at least two.

Final thought:  A cheap ice cream cone?  Does an expensive ice cream cone exist?

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Hot Trading Action in The Stocks

Stocks are strong right out the rip this morning, with the S&P tide pushing all these jet boats (momo stocks) higher.

In the futures, I’ve traded four contracts, all to the long side, earning 1.5 handles, 3 handles, 1.5 handles, and a runner.  UPDATE: Closed the runner, 3.25 handles.

I kicked out SAM after initially thinking I would make it an investment.  I don’t want to be invested in SAM.  I like Pabst if I’m going low end, New Castle if I’m being normal, BUD for sports drink, and anything brewed at the micro capacity from Michigan all the time.  So why own SAM?

I sold LOCK too because it had a chance to be great and it decided going sideways was cool.  What a wimpy stock.

The solar trade is complete madness.  I love it.  These ‘late stage” conditions give a huge edge to the small trader who can ferret in and out of the crazy names.  My wild boy is Scotty.  SCTY is the proverbial stone that kills two birds, giving me a piece of Elon’s sweet ass and solar exposure. With that in mind, I’ve taken two scales, and am down to a runner on SCTY. You guys are crazy so I want to see how far your crazy gets me.

Don’t sleep on JRCC, it’s way out of balance after we learned Friday that they bought a little more time in their debt structure. I want to see the imbalance push higher, obviously.

New longs are YELP, and CRZO and cash is low low low, 25 percent.

 

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Sticking to The Plan

It’s been a solid morning so far for stocks as we continue to chug along on the value train mountain ride.  The question is are we about to begin a descent ala Thunder Mountain or will the engines continue to power higher using banks and Apple as fuel?

The morning offered me one setup that earned a single ES point.  I’ll take it to start the week.  The primary feature of the morning was a solid five handle rotation higher that buoyed many stocks along with it.  It filled the gap and now we’re watching the market consolidate so far above value.

It will be interesting to see if the market can hold onto this strength through the lunch hours.

I took some profits in YELP and BBRY this morning but still hold 2/3 positions in each.

I started a new long in ANGI, again.  Third time is perhaps the charm?

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