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The Social Experiment Continues

I have been trading these social media stocks, the fire, names like FB, TWTR, Z, YELP, TRLA, ANGI, and GRPN since I started blogging here back in the cussing days.  I would cuss and trade these stocks, like an internet villain of sorts, for my profit and your entertainment.

I was trying to get people excited about my little blog, over here.

I bought weekly calls in YELP and TWTR this afternoon, which prompted distinguished 12631 trader @ckelly44 to question what I was seeing, and also to explain a bit more about the trade.  First, what I was seeing is this:

TWTR_daily_01282014

Second, we have Facebook earnings out tomorrow, and I have no idea what they are going to report.  However, many social media stocks are in alignment into the earnings.  Therefore, I expect a very binary response from the names once Facebook reports.  I had a hard time choosing between TWTR and YELP, therefore I picked both—like a good American.

Here’s the YELP:

YELP_01282014

While we’re looking at charts, here’s FB:

FB_daily_01282014

This same look can be seen in Zillow too.  ANGI is trading a bit radical, but nice too.  Here’s the kicker, I have exposure to all of the above names like some kind of crack head.  Should the names bounce, I will have exposure to said names, all of them, until Friday.

Here’s the exposure catalogue:

Z – Feb $95 calls and common stock

GRPN – Feb $12 calls

FB – Feb $57.50 calls

TRLA – Feb $40 calls

TWTR – weekly $65 calls and common

YELP – $80 weekly $80 calls

ANGI – Feb $17.50 calls

Via the above pot of positions, I have a ton of exposure to social media.  More exposure then I have ever had in my life, as a matter of fact.  The crazy part is, only one of those call positions needs to cooperate and I will profit.  Options, when bought with halfway decent timing and proper sizing, offer a much more modest risk profile then I previously understood.  Should they all lose after a big FB upset, my book will sink about 3.3% from here.  That is losing ALL of the premium. I know, bananas.

I have a short term expectation for movement higher, you see?

MOVING ON…I had some AAPL call exposure left that scalped me today, yet I am still up 1.6% on the day.  Leading the way was LEDS.  The stock went #BEASTMODE into the bell on heavy volume.  Someone wants some LED exposure.  I still hold 25% of my risk in the LED industry.  I have not sold anything yet.  Today it became clear they are making another attempt to take my shares from me.  They will fail, again.

I am most bullish on the LED industry.  Next is social media, and third is natural gas.  It is so freakishly cold here in Michigan, colder then I can remember.  Also, they are limiting the propane deliveries to the hilled billy folk, telling them to, “get with the times and hook up to a natural gas pipe.”  I was going to get something exotic, like UGAZ, but I opted to follow The Fly into AREX.

I did not sell anything yet, therefore my cash is down below 10 percent.  I think we still trade lower from here, but it is also my expectation that individual stocks will be allowed to behave on their own merit.  This could be seen today in volatility, which was crushed.

Here’s my plan, we stuck to it today, albeit slightly weaker than expected.  Let’s see what tomorrow may bring:

NQ_SentimentChart

NQ__VolumeProfile_01282014

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Sipping From My Cup

I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades.  One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.

My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year.  I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE.  As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.

Let’s discuss RVLT a bit.  If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce.  To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail.  How do you like that?  I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally.  And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year.  Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares.  Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report.  The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position.  This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”.  It puts a foul stink on the whole move.  If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.

However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully.  Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes?  Wrong!  The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers.  If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs.  Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs.  And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit.  Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance.  Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.

Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END.  Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls.  It’s up to you to wrap risk around them.  I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.

My SKF has gone red by about three percent.  Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade.  I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over.  Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY.  Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.

END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references?  I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.

CLF is tricky.  It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life.  Do we trust it?  Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick?  TBD

In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.

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Full Position Synopsis

Into the weekend I would like to very briefly run down my portfolio holdings and the reasoning behind each.  This information is coming off the rip after a long week.  Thus any thing with a flimsy justification may need to go.

Here we go, from largest to smallest holding:

Cash – I have 20 percent of my book sitting cash.  I’m eager to deploy it on the long side

SKF – I’m using a three year volume profile chart to view BRK/B, WFC, GS, C, etc. and I see a great volume pocket below prices.  Plus they’ve broken down off their respective highs and are printing tight bear flags.  The overall market is on unstable footing and I want some levered short exposure.

RVLT – Yes, it’s my largest long holding and currently the bane of my stock existence.  It earned largest ranking when I blew out my YGE and YELP shares this week.  They were my prior biggies.  The stock is trading worse than a bag of dicks at a hot dog eating contest.  There are no buyers and presumably a few large sellers cashing in on the 600% plus move that took place up unto the day I bought the stock.  The business model is stronger than ever, the shift in focus from consumer products to large scale retrofits is brilliant, and the investor population is still very shortsighted on the opportunity in lighting.  I still love this name, and I plan to cost average in through several quarters.

AIXG – My German LED company.  I love LED technology and I see this company as a beneficiary in Europe due to their energy awareness.  The stock has been dead money for months and I continue to hold.  Nothing has changed here, but this consolidation has excellent potential energy.

END – Huge short interest, oil exploration, and a hot chart.

CREE – Same as RVLT and AIXG, I want these names until incandescent and HID bulbs die.  I’ve been in since January, why exit now?

TRLA – I love their app and use it constantly, the chart looks great, Zillow has been a beast, value added to realty pros, and Le Fly is in the name.

CLF – Tight consolidation, looks like it wants to rip and if it doesn’t the risk is really low.  OA went YOLO on it this week too, although it never moved so that may have been a small loss.

FB – Marky Mark and the poke crew are getting it done.  Holding

LO – Blu eCigs and menthol cigarrets won’t actually get banned.  Interest rates need to stop rising, it’s making the coupon less attractive.

F – Still a strong chart and a nice product line.  This is a patriot long still kicking around my port since the 4th of July

IMMR – haptics are way underutilized by porn.  I think the porn industry will drive growth here 😉 Also, a Le Fly favorite.

USO – I should still be large but I took a bunch of scales on the way up.  I almost sold it all.  Look, that would have been really dumb.

O – it too pays a large coupon which is losing allure with bond rates rising.  I traded my favorite reversal pattern really well in here with a large position.  The locked in gains dipped my cost basis way down here.  So I’m basically break even on the idea, waiting to collect some coupon.

That’s my holdings.  I’m interested in a few other names, like SFM and GOGO, but will wait until next week to act (obviously).

Have a great weekend everyone,

Raul

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On The Offensive

The S&P traded in a silly manner today, pressing higher without much by the way of a rotation lower.  The action had the strong scent of big money sloshing around, it smells like chemicals.  We finally rotated lower in the last half hour of trade, but not quite enough to allow me entry on the long side.

For the day I was up 1.5 trading discretionary using the Bossram cycle, and Elroi was down 1 handle.  Most of that vertical movement was untradeable with my toolbox.

It became clear early on I wouldn’t have much action in the /ES so I turned my focus to the stocks.  For some reason, likely the lower leverage, I’m much more careless with my entries.  I identified a quality entry point in BBRY today, but with the broad markets busting through resistance with ease I rushed my entry.  The trade ended up working out so far, but unnecessary risk was taken.  That’s the over analytic, slightly perturbed me talking about BBRY.

I’ve seen this daily chart pattern play out 100s of times: a stock is in a long trend, by long I mean months, quarters, or years.  Then it makes a sharp move higher (or lower) to a reference point, like the 9ema.  Then it throws down some price action that forms a letter ‘N’.  You buy that setup.  You buy that setup every time.  That was the case in BBRY today.  Having Cool Hand Luke aka #voodooshark aka RaginCajun as your wingman makes the trade even easier.  This evening I’ll be donning a Canadian belt buckle at the local grocery, and tomorrow a full Canadian tuxedo, regardless of the heat or itinerary.   Please refer to me as Drake, the name of all Canadian men.  That’s the long hair don’t care me talking about smacking BBRY around.

Sometimes a beautiful woman sullies her entire appearance by lacking confidence.  Take 20 minutes to practice your posture and enjoy the confidence it brings you.  Raul writes for the ladies.

I scored big wins in YGE, YELP, BBRY, AIXG, and TRLA today.

FB, USO, and END lagged. Meanwhile, RVLT was beaten over the head with a sack of nickels.  They need to land some big retrofits and blow the news out on the wires.  I have to stick with this name.  You probably shouldn’t.  This isn’t some hot sexy trade, like you all crave so rabidly.  This is a cold, passive aggressive relationship that will eventually fruit into something beautiful after several months of therapy.  At that point things will warm up.  Until then it’s the highs and lows of mood swings and recovery.  It’s a long way, to the top, if you want to rock and roll.

I added to RVLT today.

http://youtu.be/pNHLobxZsHA

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Pay Attention to the Winners

…not the losers in Washington DC.  The market sold off after hearing something from congress.  That’s as far as my analysis goes on news flow because it’s far from my forte…instead I suggest you turn your attention to Zillow.

Even with the jolt in interest rates today, $Z is strong and flirting with $100.00 like it knows what it’s doing.  You know what happens next, don’t you?  Zillow goes to $125, getting the phone number of the woman you’ve only mustered the courage to talk to all night.

Zillow is the winner.  You can be too.

As of this writing, I have no position in Zillow.  I do however have a long position in TRLA, Zillow’s not so cute but still fine cousin.

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