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Tag Archives: $PPC

The Normal Day

It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but.  In fact, they are rather rare.

And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points.  A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session.  It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.

That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week.  Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.

Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.

I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture.  AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space.  I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer.  Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5th earnings.  Then they will start making mistakes.

The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities.  December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday.  I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.

I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell.  If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain.  It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.

I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:


These are all full size positions.  As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness.  It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.

My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:


Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high.  Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain.  Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye.  Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil.  The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology.  If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny.  If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established.  The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices.  What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price.  This will scare most of you.  But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.

I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks.  These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:


I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA.  Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding.  It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.

ONVO needs to die for a while.  It trades poorly.  I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.

TWTR is another name I will hold until zero.  I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it?  One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on.  Therefore I wait.

This post has gone on far too long.  These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them.  Let’s see how they perform this week.

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1800 in Sight


Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:


Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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Let The Fog Clear

My Halloween was a rather non-event.  A few children came to my door demanding tricks or treats and I drank one mug of cider and rum.  It took a while to unwind yesterday’s action.  I played it though my head a few times, remembering the subtle moments when the market gave me a little wink.

Then today came.  I anticipated sell flow on the S&P which led me to offer three scenarios that emphasized sellers.  But I never felt confident on the short side intraday.  The moves were too unorthodox according to my practice, and I could tell I was out of my element (Extra Donny).

Come 11am I started selling down my long exposure a bit.  I trimmed where I could selling parts of my LO, GOGO, and BALT.  Something about the AMBA bounce did not sit well with me so I scratched this position entirely.  I know flip-flopping can frustrate spectators, but some of these positions require confirmation for me to stick around.  AMBA stalled and after I gave my book a hard look AMBA stood out.  I still like the stock.

My two largest positions now are PPC and WLT.  This is completely unacceptable.  A young gent like me should not have size in stupid chicken and coal interests.  That is plain vanilla dumb.  I want my size in places like GOGO and Zillow and FaceBook.  You know, new companies.

Fortunately I have these TSLA shares.  I was so excited to finally own TSLA shares that I exclaimed the news to friends.  I have no idea what has me so god damned excited to own TSLA shares.  Of all the positions we go through on a weekly basis, I have never excitedly told friends about any.  That being said, I should probably just sell the stock now because I am way to enthusiastic about it.

I boosted cash up to 25% into the weekend because I am sticking with the theme that a large seller is at work in the S&P futures market.  Until that seller slips up and loses control, I am keeping some cash to buy up your margin liquidations.  Individual stocks are still working though, much to my dip buying chagrin.  October did not have a “day of terror” where everything goes on sale.

May November bring a solid day of terror, saluti

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Searching For A Pulse

The old market of stocks is becoming ever more selective while the indices teeter like humpty dumpty atop a gigantic wall of worry.  The markets are rewarding patience…lots of patience.  I continue to profile a large short who is hard at work in the S&P and I am beginning to feel her palms sweating.

Two earnest attempts were made by aggressive sellers today to press price lower.  I see there footprints all over my undersized 24-inch Samsung screens.  First came the huge order absorption Friday afternoon and then today two aggressive, menacing attempts at driving price lower by hitting the bids HARD.

Both times the damn dip buyers presented themselves.

Now Monday is over and Apple is trading modestly lower as are the /NQs yet the stodgy S&P is lingering.  It is lingering like your friend’s friend at the end of the night.  It is lingering like the drunken buffoon after last call.  The S&P is lingering like a stubborn snail on your porch. The longer the S&P persists at lingering, the warmer the room becomes where the big short resides.  The walls get heavy.  The sounds of colleagues chatting and printers printing erupt into a confusing noise.  Suddenly there’s no air in the room but in reality their breathing has stopped.  Their brain is failing.  In short, anxiety is building for the massive short.

Or it isn’t.  This is all a subjective analysis of a hypothetical seller being profiled by an odd stranger on the internet, yes?

I sold that USO long, taking a 5 percent loss.  It looks decent but it was stupid of me to tie up so much money in oil when there is crack to smoke and chocolate to eat.  I thought parking 10% of my assets in the name would be like a voluntary break from the action to keep me honest.

Well, it kept me honest and lost me money.  That is honestly dumb.

I resisted the strong urge to buy SCTY today although I should have.  After hesitating briefly, it appreciated by a dollar and I was no longer interested.  At least that is what I tell myself today.

More GOGO had to be purchased.  This stock has comported itself with the utmost decency even while other momentum stocks flung solid body waste at one another.  It was already a 10% position last week, now it’s nearly 15 my friends.

I still have this PPC chicken stock and corn, soybeans, grains, and any other GMO puke they input into these foul beasts is cheaper than ever. This is without question the overplay for the underlay with the salmonella news as a backdrop.

Anyone who follows the LED industry knows our available and investable companies have been tossed into The Fly’s fag box.  RVLT continued being a cerebral pain by trading down.  It went down, okay?  It is down for no reason in particular aside from having a loose corporate structure and managing to eke out 500% plus gains on the year.  You may continue seeing profit taking in this wild stock.

In short, my cash is up and I am concentrating my risk where the momo is chasing.

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Halloween Candy Only Market

There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:


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Less Indeed Was More

We are treading water up in the market highlands and when the air is thin thoughts tend to mend together into a blur from lack of oxygen.

I made only one adjustment to my portfolio today, reducing my exposure in CREE to a more manageable ¾ size into earnings tomorrow.  I intend to carry ¾ through earnings and use up to a 1.5 position size to trade my way out of any correctionsIf they gap higher, I will simply buy more shares at a greater price.  However I won’t go full size into earnings because as much research as I have done on the opportunity in lighting, my edge is stronger as a technician.  After the sale, I have about 20% of my equity portfolio concentrated into the LED industry via CREE, RVLT, and LEDS.

I want AIXG again, but I may take a pass because it trades in a ghetto way.

PPC has me 10 percent in the hole on a full sized position after two quick trading sessions.  Sometimes all the fancy timing and indicators get smashed with the gravity hammer that is unknown risk.  How was anyone to know a salmonella outbreak would occur the next day?  The stock has undergone heavy selling pressure over the last two days and it is likely to continue tomorrow.  We are coming into an area I believe to be support.  Should it not behave as support, and buyers do not react to the prices as if they are a discount (a reaction like when you touch a hot plate) I will cut my 10% loss.  Being a 10% position, this trade potentially lopped 1% off my book.  It sucks, but I live to fight another day.

PPC still has to work through earnings on Halloween before it gets into its seasonal sweet spot so it appears I was at least one day early on this long.

My other menace stock is ADHD.  The little bastard stock lacks discipline and needs to be made stronger by correction and medication.  HEAVY MEDICATION.  That will teach this stock to misbehave…talking rubbish about ghosts and imaginary friends when it should be memorizing Bible passages.  No, I have not been watching too many scary movies.

CLNT is set up right to be the next winner in the Chinese lottery.  Shorts, I have one simple question, are you feeling lucky punks?  Well, are you!?

Everything else is just wiggling around, waiting for proper order flow to dictate direction.  The RVLT daily chart has the exact picture I hunt for daily, but I suppose I am partial to the name.  I still have a very large position after all.

I traded the /NQ like a jackass today.  I overtraded and clocked a 22% win rate.  I over traded after writing less is more in my morning analysis—that’s what gets my goat.  Futures trading is all about bringing you A-game and following your plan to the T.  There can be no deviation.

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The market – Not quite



There is an air of discontent amongst the stock picker class today.  The trumped up bull certainly did not lift all ships.  Take my precious RVLT for instance.  It traded like a loser while loser stock LEDS went on an ape shit quest.


Pardon the all caps, but I blew out a few thousand shares of LEDS at $1.42 today.  Now I have a risk free position that can ‘do work’ while I focus my attention on extracting dollars from the futures markets.  Speaking of which…

Trading the /NQ continues to show progress.  Here’s the current statistics:

44 trades, 35 wins, 79.5% win rate


50 trades, 75% win rate

As you can see, the plan is progressing rapidly thanks to the opportunistic nature of the indices.  The stock picker reigns supreme in this market yes, but adding a method for extracting money from the random walk of the index futures is a must in my humble opinion.  Once I hit 50 trades I will up my position sizing.

I went ahead and bought a full size PPC position.  Earnings are on the 31st and chicken manufacturing inputs are cheap.  Bird meat is consumed by our rabid population every day, the chart has gone largely ignored after a successful campaign higher, seasonality says indeud, and I feel the voodoo spirits talking on this one.

ONVO started to tingle my kidneys this afternoon.  Either that or I have another stone forming

::drinks two gallons of water::

Portfolio sits at all-time highs folks.  I could be a normal piker, giving my money to the stock market or sidelining.  Instead I commit to the game, take any and all criticism as constructive, and keep my eye on the prize.

Google blew out earnings and is trading at all-time highs.  You should too.

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Chicken ARISE!

We had some fun trading this stock last 4th quarter, it has hot seasonal stats PPT folks should check out, and the chart looks perf:


Don’t say I never gave you anything. This is as ideal a stock pick as you will find the the internet. Enjoy

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The Chicken Cometh

As you sit in your chair with your eyes fluttering, day dreaming of your bed as you digest your carb-heavy lunch, preparations are being made to resurrect the chicken.  Two tribesmen are burning thickets of sage to ward off the evil spirits as we call to the land of the dead.  We call for the chicken, we call for the chicken to ARISE!

Seriously, the smoke from these sage leaves is burning my nostrils and staining the crowned molding.  These guys mean business I’m sure of it.

I put the #meattrade on your radar this weekend over at chartpin.com were you paying attention?  Is anybody paying attention?  Or should I start talking about football and man-whoring?  Please do realize my derriere is on the line and my site statistics are teeny-weeny.  Fly’s going to toss me off a cliff like a deformed Spartan baby unless you start telling your financially driven friends how much coin we’re making over here.

Don’t worry, our edge won’t vanish.  It’s based on the laws of nature.

PS If you were REALLY paying attention back in the blogger network days, we grabbed 60% upside in $PPC last quarter.  Indeud.

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