Home / Tag Archives: $NQF

Tag Archives: $NQF

I Think She Has One More Good Day in Her

We never truly can say what the market should do, nor can we impose our will upon the market.  We can however, through the lens of market profile with a side of auction theory, gauge the likelihood of continuation.  This is why they keep me around, these guys.

I probably would have started locking in longs like many of you if I stayed at my trading terminal, the most aggrandized name for my bossed up PC.  After all, what a pungent thrust, certainly it would be prudent to raise cash.  I pulled a PTJ and headed to the gym an hour before the bell to avoid the angst.

If you have clicked my blog title with haste, insistent upon reason and logic without all the 80’s bravado and unpalatable verbiage, then look no further than the following market profile bits, which I will discuss a bit further below:


The P-shaped profile is known as a short squeeze.  This is a temporary phenomenon in some cases, and when they occur in the context of a downtrend they often mark the end of the countertrend.  The key is keeping your intermediate timeframe clear.  Is this a downtrend?


If you have ever been to a live auction then you have seen this action, or if you have been to a stingy charity event then you have seen the opposite action.  An item  is rolled out and the auctioneer begins their banter about starting bid.  If no one bites then they drop the initial bid.  Once we have interest the process begins.  At the tight-pocketed charity event, after two or three hands are raised everyone starts looking around, afraid to raise their hands.  The auctioneer starts using tons of filler noise, making it seem like the auction is still active when really it is dead.

The opposite is when higher prices actually bring NEW participants into the auction.  They have seen the activity and when it reached higher advertised prices it enticed them and they wanted to buy.  The auctioneer is saying very little filler, and the price continues climbing.

I see that rising VPOC as higher advertised prices generating buying interest.  And even through these are not quite trend day profiles, I am pressing my longs into tomorrow as these contracts trade at all time highs.

Sleep well my little butter cups 😉

Comments »

Examining Overhead Supply

The index markets continued lower overnight, extending the move made yesterday afternoon.  The question now is whether the news driven selling from yesterday has created more overhead supply then can be handled.  This would result in value migrating lower and washing out last week’s progress.

Should a short-covering type rally occur today, I would expect it to run up to about 3394 on the NASDAQ futures.  If the action is able to sustain trade above 3394, the expectation is for buyers to target 3405 where I suspect we will see the effects of overhead supply from the Friday-to-Monday action.

Price is slippery below due to the thin profile structure we are working inside of.  It would not surprise me to see trade back down to last Wednesday morning’s trade, before the surge in prices.  Should this occur, I will be using the low volume node at 3360 as support to lean on.  Should we see price accepted below this level it would suggest a major sentiment shift away from all of last week’s action.

Our early clue to whether bulls can reassert intermediate term trend force will be the overnight low volume node at 3383.75.  Sellers hold the short term and overnight trend control.  Stay tuned to the midday report for insight into day control.

I have highlighted these levels, as well as a few scenarios on the following market profile charts:



Comments »

Keeping The Balance

Overnight was fairly quiet in the Composite futures where the main feature was a rotation higher in the early hours, around 4 am.  The pulse higher was effective in erasing a slow and balanced drift lower, but it also put the market into overbought territory on the very short term.  Early on, perhaps even premarket, my expectation is for sellers to work price lower a bit before we see an attempt at another rotation higher.

I have envisioned two scenarios for today, both which expect value to be built upon our existing and fragmented profile structure.  Should we press beyond these envisioned profiles and accept price beyond their range that would be an early cue this week that sentiment has shifted.

You can see my vision along with levels to monitor on the following market profile charts:


Comments »

What The Overnight Sellers Need To Accomplish

Buyers could not hold on to their afternoon progress overnight when sell flow came in and effectively erased the gains.  The market began to stabilize early this morning but looks vulnerable to another rotation lower.

We are in the process of establishing value on the indices as we work though earnings season and this week’s Twitter IPO.  They busy calendar has done little to the prices on the Nasdaq and S&P index thus far, but that is likely to change as the week presses on.

With that in mind, I like to define the edges of the field or price levels which would tell me we are transitioning out of value and into vertical discovery.  I have highlighted these levels below on the following S&P RTH Market Profile Chart.  I used the Nasdaq 24-hour chart to envision a few scenarios on the day because the S&P 24-hour chart is very fragmented:


Comments »

Raising My Guard

When the /NQ busted loose to the downside I was working an offer trying to board the short bus.  The market simply would not pull back enough to allow me entry into a short.  When I finally did get my short on I was taken for a wild, spine twisting ride higher.  I doubled my short and booked a small gain on the double down and close the initial entry for break even.  At that point, given the velocity of the marketplace, I turned Elroi the trading algo on and went out for chicken.

The more I trade the better I am at having awareness that my edge is dull.  The action today is better suited for my emotionless robot to trade in a very average manner.  The algo may not take any trades or may take some very average gains from the market, but it beats an emotional me executing orders.

I have CREE earnings after the bell.  My position size is smaller than what I carried into last quarter but still meaningful at about 6% of my portfolio.  There was chatter online that CREE is interested in buying RVLT.  I hope this doesn’t happen because I want to see RVLT grow to become the most successful retrofit company in the United States.

I have not felt the urge to swing any shorts this entire summer/fall until today.  Where the market stands, I feel like I need some hedge action so I started buying FXY.  I love the consolidation we are seeing on the weekly chart and should we see risk fly off the table some of it will find its way into the Yen.  Plus there have been big moves kicking up in the currency markets and they have my interest.

It seems the macro picture is morphing a bit this week.

Of course, should the cocaine get dusted over the market again I will likely be back on the chase.

ADHD is failing me and next to go

GOGO needs to shape up

The chicken trade is not dead yet.  May it arise and smash the doubters.

Comments »

Less Indeed Was More

We are treading water up in the market highlands and when the air is thin thoughts tend to mend together into a blur from lack of oxygen.

I made only one adjustment to my portfolio today, reducing my exposure in CREE to a more manageable ¾ size into earnings tomorrow.  I intend to carry ¾ through earnings and use up to a 1.5 position size to trade my way out of any correctionsIf they gap higher, I will simply buy more shares at a greater price.  However I won’t go full size into earnings because as much research as I have done on the opportunity in lighting, my edge is stronger as a technician.  After the sale, I have about 20% of my equity portfolio concentrated into the LED industry via CREE, RVLT, and LEDS.

I want AIXG again, but I may take a pass because it trades in a ghetto way.

PPC has me 10 percent in the hole on a full sized position after two quick trading sessions.  Sometimes all the fancy timing and indicators get smashed with the gravity hammer that is unknown risk.  How was anyone to know a salmonella outbreak would occur the next day?  The stock has undergone heavy selling pressure over the last two days and it is likely to continue tomorrow.  We are coming into an area I believe to be support.  Should it not behave as support, and buyers do not react to the prices as if they are a discount (a reaction like when you touch a hot plate) I will cut my 10% loss.  Being a 10% position, this trade potentially lopped 1% off my book.  It sucks, but I live to fight another day.

PPC still has to work through earnings on Halloween before it gets into its seasonal sweet spot so it appears I was at least one day early on this long.

My other menace stock is ADHD.  The little bastard stock lacks discipline and needs to be made stronger by correction and medication.  HEAVY MEDICATION.  That will teach this stock to misbehave…talking rubbish about ghosts and imaginary friends when it should be memorizing Bible passages.  No, I have not been watching too many scary movies.

CLNT is set up right to be the next winner in the Chinese lottery.  Shorts, I have one simple question, are you feeling lucky punks?  Well, are you!?

Everything else is just wiggling around, waiting for proper order flow to dictate direction.  The RVLT daily chart has the exact picture I hunt for daily, but I suppose I am partial to the name.  I still have a very large position after all.

I traded the /NQ like a jackass today.  I overtraded and clocked a 22% win rate.  I over traded after writing less is more in my morning analysis—that’s what gets my goat.  Futures trading is all about bringing you A-game and following your plan to the T.  There can be no deviation.

Comments »

Trade Log and Portfolio Position Analysis

That title was my attempt at the driest headline ever.  The anti-click bait because I don’t want non-core readers peering too deep into my mind.

– Raul

My feel for index future trading is warming up this week as I continue to focus the bulk of my day trading activity to the /NQ.  I have been the beneficiary of these large ranges, capturing a good portion of the range with my trades.

What’s working?

  • Staying on the right side of the market – it was much easier to take longs today
  • Wide EMAs – when my exponential moving averages are wide I have a greater edge
  • Modest price targets – getting a scale off at 1.5 points builds a ton of emotional capital, allowing me to manage the remainder of my position better.
  • Taking cues from the /ES but trading the /NQ

What’s not working?

  • Stacked EMAs – my edge deteriorates when my EMAs converge too tight (CHOP!)
  • Afternoon trading – I took two meetings today.  Afterwards I could not focused and botched a trade

Midweek progress:

33 trades, 25 wins, 76% win rate


50 trades, 75% win rate.  I can build size onto this.  50 trades is the minimum threshold to consider any set of data to be statistically significant.

I have to keep in mind that trading opportunities are much more bountiful in this wildly indecisive tape.  Large daily ranges certainly benefit day/scalp trading.

About half of my trades last less than one minute it is beautiful my friends, instant gratification that would satisfy the most impatient gambler.

I put out a quick note on the /ES this afternoon when a large divergence occurred between the cumulative volume delta and price.  That turned out to be a solid trade signal.  I have noted the occurrence several times now and it now merits a proper backtest.  Just add that to the ole ‘to do’ list.

My book is up 1.25 percent today led by LEDS which is back to my cost basis and GOGO which is just marinating ever so nicely.  Zillow traded nicely too, making a move which is still of the dead cat variety but I will take it.

The most troubling news today came inside the premium halls of iBankCoin, where an esteemed member of our secret society informed me ADHD in fact develops non-stimulant, non-amphetamine medicines for treating ADHD.  I share my thoughts for record keeping purposes and also to solicit feedback from people I know are much smarter and more informed then I am.  That blows my core thesis to bits and I am now trading a stupid price chart with no back story.  Damn those Israelites for having the best ticker symbol ever and lacking the amphetamines to back it up.

Every day I want to buy TSLA and SCTY because Elon Musk is the best CEO of my lifetime.  He sets the standard for corporate communication, scientific acumen, and risk tolerance.  Instead I go out and play the Chinese lotto and buy crap stocks like LEDS and ADHD.  In short, I want to focus down to my core and start buying TSLA and SCTY.

LONGS, sized largest-to-smallest:


Cash 10%

I’m reposting Eminem because he crushed all these little boy rappers:

Comments »