We started the month of March up near swing high with market trading sideways in the short term. Price went gap up Monday and tested higher before finding responsive sellers, then tested lower yesterday and found responsive buyers. Heading into today, the Nasdaq is slightly positive on the month. Price managed to cut slightly higher than it did lower in the process, likely the case due to its alignment with the higher time frame trend.

Yesterday was a busy day economically and it showed. The Nasdaq was whipping around pretty good yesterday as it digested record builds in oil/gas inventory and the Fed Beige Book. This morning we had Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims out at 8:30am while a Mario Draghi press conference took place.

We also have Factory Orders at 10am and Natural Gas Storage stats at 10:30am. Also at 4:30pm the Fed will release the preliminary results of its 2015 Bank Stress Test.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory to target a gap fill down to 4445.50. If buyers can defend then I will look for a move toward overnight high 4458.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down below 4440 triggering an acceleration lower to take out yesterday’s low 4422 to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 3 is buyers continue working up above 4458.75 to target the mCLVN at 4465.25 and work above Tuesday’s high 4472.50.

Levels are highlighted below:

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Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

 

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The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap.   Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Levels are highlighted below:

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Heading into the new month the Nasdaq is trading up a few points. The overnight auction has been on normal range and volume and shows sellers having the slight edge for most of the session. This is shown by rotation size and the weaker looking session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for prices to close the overnight gap to 4448 and then test higher to the VPOC at 4457.75. Overnight high is also up there at 4458 if buyers can take out the ONH the look to continue and test swing high 4464.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through Friday close 4448 and take out overnight low 4446.5. If buyers no show at 4440 mCVPOC then take out weak low at 4429.25 and target NVPOC 4418.

Levels:

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Range and volume are compressed on the globex session despite the GDP data at 8:30am. The data came in a bit stronger than expected which esoterically is a negative occurrence because it may be seen as evidence the economy is ready for Feds to raise rates. Price is flat on the news as we head into cash open with a small gap down.

We have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am, Pending Home sales and the Final U of M Confidence read at 10am.

The market traded sideways with a slight upward skew all week and today is the final day of trade in February. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to close the gap up to 4462.50 and attempt a test above overnight high at 4464.75. Up here I will look for responsive selling back down to the mCVPOC at 4440.

Hypo 2 is we ush lower off the open and take out mCVPOC 4440 opening us up to break the weak low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4417.75.

Hypo 3 is we drive above overnight high and target measured move 4480.

Levels:

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Nasdasq futures are about flat as we enter US trade. After printing a neutral day yesterday we spent most of the overnight session drifting higher. This drift took us just above yesterday’s MID to test the volume pocket just below 4450 before finding responsive sellers.

Those responsive sellers starting working ahead of the 8:30am data dump, which included CPI, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims. Overall it was a balanced session with a slight upward drift on normal volume and slightly compressed, but normal range.

Also on the docket today is some Fed repo activity from 9:30-10am, at 10:30 natural gas storage stats, at 11am the Kansas City Fed MFG activity, and at 1pm Fed’s Lockhart is set to speak. We also have GDP stats out tomorrow pre-market.

Our last three day’s overlapping value are just like last week’s Monday-Wednesday. Last week it turned out to be a time-style correction before we legged higher Thursday and Friday. Coming into today, Thursday, we have essentially the same look—three days of overlap atop a rally. The nuance is yesterday’s neutral print.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap fill down to 4437.75. That opens the door to take out ONL 4435 and test the low of our 3-day balance 4427. I will look for responsive buyers to defend and trade up through the ONH 448.75 air pocket to 4450 to target a new swing high 4461

Hypo 2 buyers cannot defend 4427 then we continue lower to target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and stretch to 4413 then 4399.50.

Hypo 3 is we stick inside the 3 day balance and continue sideways between 4450 and 4430.

Levels can be seen below:

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Nasdaq futures drifted lower, down into the mid of yesterday on abnormally low volume and range. There seems to be little interest in conducting business during globex with the looming Yellen discussions and perhaps Friday’s GDP data on the horizon.

Today, as I mentioned above, Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying for a second day. Today she meets with the Financial Services Committee at 10am. We halso have month-over-month new home sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

The trend continued yesterday, intermediate term, where buyers are in control. The last few days have been buyer controlled. Yesterday we managed to briefly take out the prior session’s low 4429.75 before finding responsive buyers who took us to new swing high prices.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction in range to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4450.25. From there I will see if buyers can take out yesterday high 4455.75. Above there I will look for signs of responsive selling.

Hypo 2 is seller push down through yesterday’s VAL 4442 to probe yesterday’s session low. Look for responsive buyers around 4430.

Hypo 3 is drive down, take out 4430 and target 4422.

These levels are highlighted below:

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The Nasdaq futures aren’t signaling we’re in store for a busy Tuesday, what with range and volume compressed well-below normal. But perhaps they are. Perhaps the volume and range are so abnormally low because everyone waits with bated breath to hear what The Fed Chair Yellen has to say both today and tomorrow. First she will talk with the US Senate at 10am. Atop this discussion we have Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed MFG at 10am.

For all intents and purposes, the market doesn’t open until 10am.

Overnights low range pushed back to the 50% mid of the afternoon ramp before finding responsive buyers. Yesterday we printed a normal variation day with a small range extension up. The most prominent feature of yesterday’s session was a late-afternoon push which traversed nearly the entire range to close us out near the high of the session.

Intermediate term the Nasdaq is trading up at swing highs after a multi-month neutral consolidation. This timeframe is bullish.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for balanced, 2-way chop. I will look for buyers to defend yesterday’s value area low 4436.25-35.25 and then make a push to test swing high 4449.25 and in particular the mezzo century figure 4450.

Hypo 2 is sellers accelerate down through yesterday’s VAL 4436.25-35.25 and push through yesterday’s low 4429.75. In this instance I will look for responsive buyers down at 4423-22.25 area. If they do not show then sellers will target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and perhaps overshoot down to 4413 LVN.

Hypo 3 is a strong push higher up through 4450 to continue the discovery process up.

Key levels can be seen below:

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Ahoy mates, I saved you the rigmarole of running standard deviation studies on the NASDAQ 100 TICK. Using high quality IQ Feed data, I ran a study on 1-minute bars to determine 1^st-3^rd standard deviation for the indicator.

I set audio alerts for the 2^nd and 3^rd thresholds using Multicharts. We’ll see if those last or end up in the junkyard with the other algo scraps.

Here’s how the data looks on my side:

Positive TICK 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd sigma: 36, 54, 70

Negative TICK 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd sigma: -37, -52, -68

Why does any of this matter? Have you ever looked at something and thought, “hmm, that’s different”? Would you want to know if something you’re seeing is in fact abnormal? I do. When I am in a trade I accept that my limbic system will be active and a big part of my job is being aware of the waves of emotion that sometimes get in the way of trading. One of my boulders to channeling that creative energy into objective trading is basing my observations and decisions on cold-dead numbers, logic.

Are they Holy Grail trading signals? No, but they do offer a peek inside the engine of our good friend /NQ_F.

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The Nasdaq is starting the week flat after an abnormally docile overnight session. Both range and volume are compressed below normal which is even more radical given the longer duration of the Sunday/Monday globex session.

Last we the market started at swing highs and spent three days [one, Monday, a holiday] trading flat before making a two day upward thrust. Friday’s action resembled a trend day although not an exceedingly strong trend day.

We have Existing Home Sales at 10am and Dallas Fed at 10:30am. Traders are already looking forward to Tuesday and Wednesday when Fed Reserve Chair Yellen is set to testify before the U.S. Senate and House. They will be listening for any hint of when the Fed will raise interest rates.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for balanced, two-way action. Sellers may push into the long inventory a bit to test down into Friday’s move. I will look for responsive buyers to defend from 4423 -4420 area.

Hypo 2 is buyers continue drifting the market higher and sustain trade above 4435.

Hypo 3 is a sharp move down through 4423-20 area to test 4413 then 4408.

See what I am seeing, below:

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