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Tag Archives: $NQ_F

Persistent Overnight Volatility

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Tuesday on above average range and volume. The session was dominated by sellers who took out yesterday’s session low and continued pushing lower, well into the range from 05/12.

Scheduled Economic events aren’t the likely catalyst to this selling. It appears to be related to the ongoing discussions between Germany and Greece. Today is another quiet economic day for the US—at 10am we have Wholesale Inventories.

Yesterday we came into the week gap down and proceeded to push lower for most of the session. Price travelled down into the 5/13 range and closed an open gap we had down there before finding responsive buyers. The strong rotation off the low was faded into the bell and led to continuing sell flow overnight.

The higher time frame action resulted in some ugly profile prints above, and it will be interesting to navigate these footprints, to say the least.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4433.75. Look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4441.25 and test the 4450 mark.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4403.75. Look for responsive buyers form 4387.75 – 4379.


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Easing into Monday With A Chill Vibe

Nasdaq futures are heading into the week balanced and compressed. The overnight session has so far been a narrow (but normal) range on normal volume. The economic calendar is light this week and today in particular only has one low impact release—at 10 am the Labor Market Conditions Change.

Aside from headline risk, that essentially leaves the market to its own device.

Last week we came in ambitious, gap up, and quickly eroded the gap to kick off 3 days of chop. Toward the end of the week sellers worked us lower until we found a sharp responsive bid Friday morning. We closed out the week grinding sideways.

Interesting to note, last week Monday we printed a normal day—we haven’t seen this print in quite some time. It suggests strong OTF presence early in the session, but no conviction follow through afterwards. The footprint it left behind suggests higher time frame selling that was absorbed well for much of last week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher. Look for an early move to take out overnight high 4483.25 followed by a gap fill trade up to 4497.50 with 4508.25 as an upside target.

Hypo 2 buyers push up to 4497.50 then stall out and two way trade ensues with a range of about 4500 to 4473.

Hypo 3 sellers work lower, take out overnight low 4468.75 and test below Friday’s low 4449.25.


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Back on The Bottom of The Range

Nasdaq futures are trading lower as we head into Friday’s trade. The session was active even before the Non-farm Payroll data but obviously the pace has increased since the data. Range and volume have extended beyond first sigma and it will be interesting to see if the volumes carry into the day session of if we instead see action fizzle out as the day progresses.

Also on the calendar today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down to press the low end of our range. Down there we found buyers who emerged late in the session despite being bludgeoned most of the day with selling pressure. If affirms the idea of intermediate term balance.

Heading into today, I will patiently observe the first hour, allowing the post-NFP dust to settle. However, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4497.50 and continue to target the overnight high 4506.50.

Hypo 2 is a seller push down to test below yesterday’s low 4473.25. Look for buyers at 4460.50 then again at 4450.50.

Hypo 3 we chop inside of 4473 – 4500 range.



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Huge Overnight Session

Europe took to the main stage overnight both with their economic reports and news bits revolving around the Greeks. We’re heading into US cash open on the tails of a historic overnight session featuring range well beyond second sigma and volume nearly as elevated. On the Nasdaq, 60,000 contracts is the 2nd sigma threshold, we are nearly exceeding it with just under an hour until the open.

The standout feature of the session is a huge, 41.25 point rotation lower right around the time German Employment data was released, followed by a 40.50 point counter rotation higher to effectively undo the selling. Since then we have churned between the peak and valley. The selling managed to take back nearly the entire range of Wednesday’s trend day before finding the responsive bid. It’s interesting to note that buyers came in right around the 5am Euro-Zone CPI data—a very news/headline driven market.

Fortunately we only have one item on the US agenda today, Factory Orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal day-type, a structure that’s anything but normal, with a 5.66% occurrence rate since January 2013. It featured a big push lower early on, but no range extension. Instead neither sellers nor buyers became initiative. Instead we worked the rest of the day within the range.

It speaks to the developing balance we’ve been discussing since two weekends back. We are in a 2-timeframe market meaning both locals and longer term participants are active In these conditions, intraday levels can become less reliable and it’s prudent to give more weight to the higher timeframe levels presented by the developing volume profile. With that in mind, you will notice I am only presenting the volume profile below to emphasize these price levels.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4521.75. Look for buyers to continue up to target the overnight high 4529.75 with a stretch target of 4543.25.

Hypo 2 is a quick push up above overnight night 4529.75 and beyond to close the gap up to 4543.25 where we find responsive sellers who push us back into 4530.

Hypo 3 sellers push early to test yesterday’s low 4486 but cannot take out overnight low 4480.75 and responsive buyers push us back up for a gap fill to 4521.75.

Hypo 4 sellers push down to 4460.50, look for responsive buyers here otherwise a test down to 4450.



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Rumors of Rumors

Nasdaq futures are coming into the new week (and new month) gap up. The globex session featured an abnormal range on high-end normal volume. The defining feature of the session was a large rotation up, nearly 30 points, that occurred from about 7am to 7:45am. The move is being attributed to rumors of a Greek accord coming out.

We had Personal Consumption data out at 8:30am which came in softer than expected. It introduced a bit of selling into the market. We also have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and Construction Spending/ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Last week was a holiday shortened week. We came into Tuesday gap down and trended lower most of the session before finding buyers in the former resistance zone from back on 5/8-5/13. They worked price nearly 30 points off the lows Tuesday which led to Wednesday when buyers became initiative and trended price higher all day. Thursday and Friday we chopped about in Wednesday’s upper half range.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory. The push to green was rumor driven and may stick, but I will look for sellers to attempt a gap fill down to 4516.75. From there I will look for buyers to come in and work higher to target the open gap at 4543.25 then a test of Wednesday’s high 4547.50.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out the gap up at 4543.25 before stalling out and rolling over to chop around 4520.50 for the rest of the session.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, take out and sustain trade above 4543.25 to set up a leg higher to new swing high. Measured move targets are 4557, 4560.75, and 4565.75.

Hypo 4 sellers fade the overnight move, take out overnight low 4506.50 and undo Wednesday’s trend day by testing below it 4497.25.



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Day After a Trend Day

Nasdaq futures were balanced overnight, trading normal range and volume within the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came in solid with Claims holding below 300k for the 12th straight week. The initial reaction to the news is muted.

Also on the calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, Natural Gas Storage figures at 10:30am, and Crude/Distillate inventory at 11am.

Yesterday buyers came in early and put together a trend day. The action was successfully in traversing the entire developing value area. The day prior (Tuesday) we traversed the range in the opposite direction. We managed to take out the lingering naked VPOC at 4543.50, a reference point left behind on 4/27, the day we hit contract high. Price went slightly beyond the reference point before stalling out ahead of contract high.

Heading into today, my expectations for index moves are low. I am looking for action to slow down and grind with a slight upward bias. Look for buyers to sustain trade above overnight low 4531.25 and set up a push to take out overnight high 4543.75 and test above yesterday’s high 4551.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing, take out the overnight low 4531.25 and test the LVN at 4520.50. If buyers cannot defend then we continue testing lower target the MCVPOC at 4508.25.

Hypo 3 buyers try a push higher, stall out around 4540, failing to take out overnight high, setup up a move lower to revisit the LVN at 4520.50.


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Back To Reality

Nasdaq futures are lower ahead of the start to a holiday shortened week. The session featured big rotations both up and down, and volume is running just a touch above first sigma while range remained compressed into normal territory.

The economic calendar is chock-full of events to wade through today. At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in-line with expectations with orders for Capital Equipment climbing for a second month. The initial reaction to the data is selling. Also on the docket today we have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence at 10am. Also this evening the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s April 30th meeting will be released.

If I had the software capabilities to do it, I would completely remove Monday’s trading action from my charts. I am skeptical to give any weight to trade data that occurred while the underlying components were closed. Conversely, on my Market Profile chart (the letters and turquoise shaded volume distribution) I prefer to see all activity on the Nasdaq futures.

We formed a large distribution last week (and during the holiday) just below our contract-high session back on April 27th. Instead of making new highs, the distribution formed and then we headed lower. Meanwhile, on a slightly higher time frame, we are coming into balance. This can be seen as several sessions of overlapping price action. Overall it seems the market is accepting higher prices and forming value.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for choppy action. With the busy economic schedule and the holiday rebalancing needed, fits and starts with little accomplished seems likely. I will look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and take out the overnight high 4528.25. I will look for signs of sellers up around 4530 who work us back lower. The I will look for the remainder of the session to back-and-fill around 4520.50.

Hypo 2 sellers push the lower early on, taking out 4503.25. Look for buyers around 4496.25 then two way trade to set in around the MCVPOC at 4504.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through the volume pocket at 4496.25 to test down to 4489.50 where buyers come in and we back-and-fill around 4496.25.

Hypo 4 buyers push up through 4536 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to new highs.


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The Only Way Out Is Up

The overnight session was fairly quiet up until CPI data at 8:30am which pushed some sellers onto the tape. Overall the session is normal in range and volume and trading in the upper quad of yesterday’s session.

On deck this afternoon we have Fed Chair Yellen speaking at 1pm. We have the Baker Hughes Rig Count data out at the same time.

Yesterday we printed a short squeeze-type profile, P-shaped. Sustained trade below overnight low 4523 is what sellers want to see to take back the session.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher to test overnight high 4535.50 and take it out to target the NVPOC at 4543.50.

Hypo 2 sellers sustain below 4523 setting up a washout lower to 4500.



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Settling Into Balance

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch lower as we head into cash open. The overnight session was normal in terms of range but volume is borderline abnormal. On the economic calendar we have a flurry of low/medium impact events to push through this morning. At 8:30am Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data was out and saw little reaction from the market.

Late on this morning we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, a data dump including Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed at 10am, and Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a curious-looking normal variation day. Price managed to push up to new weekly high before sellers knocked it back flat into the close. The last four sessions have compressed price into a range—the first real contraction in volatility we’ve seen in several weeks.

The action has made the market profile chart a bit odd, so I drew a micro composite volume profile of the last 4 sessions to see better what’s going on here (green and red distribution pictured below).

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a choppy 2-way open until we push through all the morning data. Look for price to stay contained between 4481.25 to 4504. Then look for buyers to come in and work price higher.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4479.25 to open up a liquidation down to 4458.75.

Hypo 3 buyers make a run for yesterday’s session high 4534 to target 4539.


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Bring Forth The Siesta

Nasdaq futures are set to open a touch higher for Wednesday after trading a balanced session overnight on low-end normal range and volume. The GDP data out overnight from Japan turned out to be not much of an event and the US dollar strength held overnight.

Today we had MBA Mortgage Apps at 7am. Coming up we have the weekly Crude/Distillate report at 10:30am and the collective attention of traders will at some point be focused on the Fed Minutes due out at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down day. Buyers defended Monday’s mid around the close when a late wave of selling came through.

Heading into today, I expect any early excitement to quickly fizzle and the markets to go into chop mode ahead of the afternoon minutes. Look for buyers to make a push up through overnight high 4510.50. Look for responsive sellers to defend near 4515 and two way chop to ensue with 4498 as a floor.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, close the overnight gap to 4501 and continue lower to take out overnight low 4496.75 and push below yesterday’s low. Look for buyers at 4491.50 and two-way trade.

Hypo 3 strong buying up through 4515 to target 4531.25.



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