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Tag Archives: $NDX< $QQQ

A Change in Pace

Nasdaq futures are price to open gap down to start the week. The last two Monday’s have stated gap up and pushed strength early only to reverse. Thus this week represents a fresh look to the markets. Volume and range are both normal on the globex session and overall market profile structure is ugly.

On the economic calendar we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am and an otherwise open schedule.

Friday we consolidated inside the upper quadrant of Thursday’s trend day. The session started strong, exceeding Thursday’s high and affirming the risk free nature of the trend day. However the session was a slow grind lower with no clear emerge of bulls.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory. Look for a push up to 4489.25 to close the overnight gap. If they can continue to exceed overnight high 4493.75 then look for a run to the 4500 century figure.

Hypo 2 is sellers push off the open and test below overnight low 4470.50. Look for buyers to defend 4458.50 and two way trade to ensue which might close the overnight gap up to 4489 but will stall ahead of 4493.75.

Hypo 3 is a push down through 4458.50 to target the composite HVN at 44550.

Hypo 4 we aggressive press higher, take out Friday’s high 4506.75 and target the gap up at 4515.50.


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Early Visions

Part of the reason I work with market profile is it allows me to envision how the day might progress. The idea is simple. Going back and reviewing a market profile chart shows you how markets often trade in statistical bell curves. Therefore, if you come into a session with a slightly incomplete bell curve, you and visualize what type of trade would be needed to smooth it out.

The economic calendar is quiet to start the week and earnings are starting to roll in. But for all intents and purposes Nasdaq futures will be left to their own device today due to limited external factors.

What was constructive about last week was how we auctioned each price level thoroughly before advancing to the next. The prior auctions that took place from about 4377 – 4425 were fast jerks through price. When instead each level is debated as we go, it sets a better foundation. See below:

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to continue exploring higher prices. However, I will be looking for signs of responsive sellers ahead of 4425 and two way trade to ensue. This is the green hypo on the below chart.

Hypo 2 is buyers continue exploring higher prices, trade up through 4425 early on and sustain trade at these levels before setting up a second leg to 4440.

Hypo 3 is sellers go to work off the open and churn us down below 440 before finding responsive buyers and 2-way trade ensues. This is the orange hypo on the below chart.

Hypo 4 sellers take out 4395 early and set up a fast leg down to 4382.25.

Chart & Levels:


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