You knew it was bound to happen.  You knew CREE cannot spelunk after ever single earnings announcement, right?  To be honest (and we keep it honest in the humble world of Raul) my feet were chilly to the thought yesterday too.  I went into earnings only half sized.  Do you know where I was most certainly not reducing LED exposure?

In LEDS, in RVLT…the “party rock”

I floated some statistics about CREE stock behavior during and after their earning’s announcement on the pelican stream.  They were rather interesting, really.  They are free, too, in case you are wondering.  CREE only trades higher 44% of the time after an earnings announcement BUT the session after an earnings announcement closes higher than the open 77% of the time.  Hence, therefore, thus…one does not simply trust CREE through earnings.

Quite the contrary, you instead hunt an entry the next day.  I bought CREE after it gap filled down and was trading BELOW where it opened today.  The deck was stacked for your boy Raul.  I made it a full size position, market order like a glut, and the rest is history.  They I bought OESX at the low of the day.

Do you see what I did here?  I completely pwned the LED trade, live on the interwebs.  I am not exactly dancing the tapioca over here yet.  My book is 25% concentrated into the LED industry as of the bell.  A concentration some of you may perhaps deem mad.

Let me ‘splain something else to you.  SINZO ABE will not be instigating any wars in the Far East.  He took center stage at Davos proclaiming these words.  He instead intends to lead an industrious nation and keep his battles economic in variety.  This is very good news for the LEDs we love because most of their tiny components are assembled the laborious hands of China men and women.

Thus I am pressing the envelope with my LED exposure, and I intend do so until I see the whites of Thomas Edison’s eyes—live from the land of the dead.  That last sentence makes no sense whatsoever.  I possess the will of a madman is what I am trying to convey.  Just be aware.

I have lots of other risk, side bets if you will, companies whose goals are all centered upon intelligent humans making more intelligent decisions.   I could go on, but I have already said too much.

Take time to enjoy the traditional lighting around you if this is something you hold dear, for soon it will be only a small piece of your nostalgic pie.

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That’s all it took to power the 30,000 light emitting diodes affixed to this year’s ball drop in Times Square. Tell me this isn’t the year of the LED so I may white wash your face into submission.

By the time the clean glow of LEDS is illuminating your shoppes and neighborhoods I will have already banked a king’s ransom.

FD: Long CREE, RVLT, and I just bot some LEDS

http://youtu.be/5Sn6u5YPfZA

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There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:

ONVO, PPC, RVLT, USO, LO, WLT, GOGO, ADHD, CREE, WDAY, SLW, F, LEDS, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and O

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My book is down over two and a half percent today and as you may imagine I am a bit salty today.  There was a broad market selloff last quarter when CREE disappointed.  It tends to exacerbate this brutality.  Thus my best line of defense right now is to sit on my hands and brood.  The broad sell off inflicting pain upon all LED stocks is completely without merit and reflects the irritating nature of humans to overreact.

Have you ever gone around a left-hand curve on a freeway during rush hour?  If one person overreacts in the fast lane (and they always do) then the entire fast lane comes to a halt.  Then the contagion spreads to the next lane over.  Now you have the two ‘fast’ lanes parked on the freeway while Raul zips by in the slow lane at posted highway speeds.  This is humans overreacting.  Bad humans, smack yourselves on the nose with a newspaper.

Sometimes even with clever tricks you get swept up in mess overreacting humans create.  Such is the case today with LEDS.  It is best to breath, stay calm, do not get angry, and simply waiting things out like a gentleman.  Perhaps call an old friend and catch up.  Eat some good food.  Do whatever it takes to stay calm.

I want more CREE shares because they are a fantastic company and their positioning in the marketplace is divine as leaders.  But I am waiting.

The pain I am experiencing in the LED trade isn’t bothering me.  It is more like being sore after a heavy workout.  It’s good pain that will make me stronger.

On the other hand I have let two trades get away from me: PPC and ADHD.  I am down nearly 20% on ADHD.  What was once a ¾ position has become a half position and I have no intention of buying more.  This Israeli pharmaceutical company trades like complete crap intraday and it’s putting any and all chasers in the ringer for the sake of punishing their gluttony.  I have been punished my whole live for being hyperactive so this feels natural to me.  I will keep taking pain and eventually scratch this dumper for break even.  It is too bad they aren’t cooking stimulants in their lab because that would make everyone more bullish.

PPC is being beaten so other bigger players can back the truck up at lower prices.  This is the overplay for the underlay.  I have never been more certain in my life.  Holding.

LO put out solid earnings and I like where this company is focused.  They acquired a British e-cigarrette business this month and blue Cigs have established a 49% share of the market place.  First-to-market edge FTW.

I can’t trade futures in this salty mood and the only adjustment I have made is buying SLW.  I have a half position and will trade this slowly.

Now I am off to read Department of Energy documents to affirm the LED edge further.  Good day

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The market – Not quite

Raul – INDEUD

There is an air of discontent amongst the stock picker class today.  The trumped up bull certainly did not lift all ships.  Take my precious RVLT for instance.  It traded like a loser while loser stock LEDS went on an ape shit quest.

GOOD THING WE BOUGHT STUPID LEDS THIS WEEK, YES?

Pardon the all caps, but I blew out a few thousand shares of LEDS at $1.42 today.  Now I have a risk free position that can ‘do work’ while I focus my attention on extracting dollars from the futures markets.  Speaking of which…

Trading the /NQ continues to show progress.  Here’s the current statistics:

44 trades, 35 wins, 79.5% win rate

Goal:

50 trades, 75% win rate

As you can see, the plan is progressing rapidly thanks to the opportunistic nature of the indices.  The stock picker reigns supreme in this market yes, but adding a method for extracting money from the random walk of the index futures is a must in my humble opinion.  Once I hit 50 trades I will up my position sizing.

I went ahead and bought a full size PPC position.  Earnings are on the 31^st and chicken manufacturing inputs are cheap.  Bird meat is consumed by our rabid population every day, the chart has gone largely ignored after a successful campaign higher, seasonality says indeud, and I feel the voodoo spirits talking on this one.

ONVO started to tingle my kidneys this afternoon.  Either that or I have another stone forming

::drinks two gallons of water::

Portfolio sits at all-time highs folks.  I could be a normal piker, giving my money to the stock market or sidelining.  Instead I commit to the game, take any and all criticism as constructive, and keep my eye on the prize.

Google blew out earnings and is trading at all-time highs.  You should too.

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I’ve been on the long side all morning, both in the futures and the stocks.  Well, I came into the day long stocks and enjoyed a nice 2 percent drawdown on my swings to start the day.

Now it’s practically green.  Si!

One thing isn’t working at all and that’s solar.  I chased YGE and FSLR yesterday, nearly buying their respective highs, and you see the result today.  Both positions are down over 5 percent and not catching a bid.

Therefore I’m trading everything else that is catching a bid to make up the ground being lost by these solar issuances.  They haven’t told me I’m wrong yet.  Unfortunately, I’ll have to be about 10 percent wrong to know it’s the case.  Such is the life of an overeager speculator.  Position accordingly.

Aside from my bashed on the head by Japanese men wielding solar panels it’s a good day.  We filled a 15 handle gap, a pro gap as they say.  The pros filled the pro gap and did so with the steady hand of accumulation.

I still like this tape to the long side.  I scaled some LEDS too soon, at $1.98.

My new longs are more YY and some ODP, yes…you know me.

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I’ve come to live by one saying in today’s markets and it’s, “get it while it’s here, boy.”  Because in complete honesty, any spectacular hype surrounding pockets of momentum won’t feel the same next year, week, or even hour.  When a stock is hot, it’s hot.  Higher highs, higher lows, and cocaine dances.  When it’s not, it’s National Bank of Greece.

We are undergoing a slight bounce back after a brutal five percent correction.  Did you blink?  You may have missed it.  As investors peer out of their bunkers, weary from the bombs dropped on their person, they see a strange sight.  It’s Sir Raul, dressed in ceremonial red marching regalia, tap dancing through a mine field.  The sight is so unexpected, so beautiful, they don’t even reach for their gun, they simply watch.

Just as I clear the field and hunker down into a foxhole with many women and Chairman Mao! You come to your senses attempt to clear the field.  You saw the path I took, you see how effortless it was.  You go for it.  Only at that very moment a B-52 bomber blankets the entire field with liquid hot napalm.  You’re dead.  Keep that in mind.

I’m nearly filled to the gullet with high spec, high momentum names.  Names like YGE, FSLR, DDD, YY, LEDS, and more.  I’ll either party all week long with The Chairman, or suffer the very possible drone strike after the NSA hones in on my cell phone whist I order pizza.

It appears the market has gone completely stagnant as I write. Regardless, PRESS THE BOOT!

The only stocks sold were those that will not aggressively appreciate in value.  I cut AAPL and TSLA.

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No, not my gain/loss, but my swing portfolio.  You see, I like these Chinese Burritos right now.  They’ve had strong years, yet they shrugged off this entire week’s weak weakness.  The stocks of my brothers from the Far East are poised to pump with great pomp and vigor.  They sport pristine balance sheets, approved by the general secretaries and chairmen of China.  The board of board of directors will not lose (sic).

I also took down WETF today because, there’s nothing like a millennia-old rivalry to get the energy going.  WETF is my Japan exposure, YY and HMIN represent China.  You know what? Let’s throw LEDS in with China too, no one knows what the hell they actually do, like China.

This is a game of Risk gentleman, position yourself correctly and you may find yourself chairman one day too.

Into the weekend, I’m holding the line, dressed in Red regalia, saluting you and yours.

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While Le Doctour has taken the market’s indecision as a cue to back off from his positioning, I have been aggressively churning my portfolio like a tap dancer in a minefield.  Stocks are blowing up, and blowing down.  Stock pickers are totally en vogue as money sloshes around in the market.

Today I sold my remaining shares of LEDS around 1.35 and a brief look back suggests I sold too early.  That’s the problem with knowing a company is complete shit, you’re trigger happy on the gains.  However, a 25 percent gain in two days is sufficient to keep bread on my table.

I bought ANGI back and it started ripping so I bought more.  It’s a full position now, threatening to make all-time highs alongside our historic market.

I closed out RGLD in a passive manner.  I placed a protective stop on the name ensuring I would earn 5 percent.  It triggered and I went on my merry way.  Plus the gold chart looks peak’ish.

Into the bell, @ragincajun dropped some breadcrumbs in the back ally, via the hybrid movers, and I curb-stomped two other bums to get my hands on the best pick, AIG.  I’m long AIG now.

Finally it took every bit of discipline I have to not sell ZNGA.  It’s been flirting with my stop all day.  It’s been trading like a loser all week, but it hasn’t crossed my risk parameter yet.  It’s simple ruffling my feathers in a most egregious manner.  Let’s hope she doesn’t gap down on me.  Come’own everyone, do some hoping for Raul.

Cheers,

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I’ve been busy this morning with the market.  I began running my first algorithm live this morning.  It seeks to define high probability entries for scaling the E-mini S&P contract.  So far so good, it has triggered shorts only all morning.  I’m turning it off now to dig into the data a build macros to chomp away at it.

I got a bit larger than I should have with LEDS into the bell Friday.  The stock stalled out while I was trying to day trade it and I sailed into the weekend with a 10% position.  Good lord.  I spent the majority of the morning liquidating the position down to around a 3% position.  I was able to earn an average sale price of $1.23.  Suffice to say, target one achieved, and I have a runner on should the stock gods offer me some crème.

Then the market continued to deteriorate so I bought more ZNGA.  Try to figure out that logic.  It needs to firm up before the bell for me to have optimism in the name.

Finally, I sold out of YCS, AWAY, and DNKN.  Loser, winner, loser.

Now I’m building a sizeable long in patience as they say.  This is such a corny saying, but I see traders take pride in being patient while others are risking coin, so I’ll consider myself amongst good people.

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