Wed May 29, 2013 11:15am ESTComments Off on Morning Trade Report
I cut DECK early, booking a small loss, it appears I sold near the LOD. Water under the bridge, the stock is chopping about.
I took 8 trades in the $ES_F, 6 winners and a solid green day. I’m calling it a day in the futures unless we see a major development. I like the idea of stringing two winning days together and I don’t want to blow it. Two trades were taken outside the plan, one was a scratch and one was buying the VAL I highlighted this morning which was my second best win of the day.
We’re in a major balance zone. I’m looking at big names like GS and F which had contra strength early on, and just took a big fade. I want to see how participants react/receive this fade.
Sometimes you have to let a trade effervesce, gently bubbling higher. Such is the case with LOCK, apparently.
Other times you give the trade room, and only offer it your left hand. This is how I’m getting back into my good friend RGLD, our favorite Senator’s mining situation.
Then there’s downright degeneracy, demanding nothing but instant gratification because well, you’re a degenerate and want it NOW! If you bought SCTY this afternoon and didn’t have this mentality, I tip my hat to you and your courage.
Let me be frank for a moment. This has been a fantastic, albeit slightly frantic, day for the bulls and America in general. These markets are enfuego, IN MAY. I really hope portfolio managers took their stupid axiom to heart and missed all this capital appreciation. For I hate them, mostly.
Raul worked in the financial services industry once. Let’s just say there wasn’t enough trading, if you know what I mean.
My happy place is buying and selling things, all the time, like one of those Pawn Star folk.
Into the weekend, my cash is down to 30 percent.
I’ve put a shit ton of longs on, more than I can properly manage. This weekend, I’ll be ranking these and consolidating them down. But as it stands, here’s the look, by size:
The market is digesting the gains bulls achieved earlier in the week with a consolidation today. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that we’re overbought here. But we simply haven’t seen any high volume distribution. It’s just one rotation after another from extended stocks to the ones setup below.
I’m putting money in several names, looking to catch the next rotation. I’ll be honest. I don’t know where it will be. My two primary rotational plays are LOCK and JRCC. Lock is up over 10 percent this month but hasn’t pumped alongside the overall market this week. JRCC is coal, so who the hell knows if it will catch a solid bid?
HAIN keeps marching ahead and I’m giving it space, but may take another scale soon. I can’t resist booking gains. The downside is I wind up with little fragments of runners in my books. Current runner fragments include FB ANGI GS and RGR. I’m considering adding to FB and RGR, but not ANGI up here.
My long term plays are AAPL AWK CREE and SAM.
My dog today is JOEZ jeans. It needs to shape up soon or I’m cutting.
Tue May 14, 2013 4:35pm ESTComments Off on The Trade Today Was To Buy the Open and Hold Onto Your Pants
Today was really interesting as a student of the markets. Believe me when I tell you, there’s gold in trading the S&P futures at the open. I just can’t seem to harness it yet. I have streams of data over all types of markets supporting such a thesis.
I grabbed onto the $ES_F not long after the open. I got an ace entry just above 1630. As is par the course, I got my first scale at 1.25 points profit. I scale at 1.25 because my setup achieves this goal with a 70 percent win rate. Then I let the other units run. In theory. Currently I’m trading a two lot. I’ll keep trading this tiny position until I get the type of profitability my statistics suggest, and then my goal is to work up to trading 50 lots like the best.
Anyhow, I get the 1.25 and there’s no sign of sellers. But these positions require my full attention. More attention than I can give when I get the phone call for an impromptu morning meeting. WTF? I booked the other piece a 1.75 points profit and scuttled to a meeting. Returning to my abode, I watched patiently as the move progressed, and when I got a short entry I took it—then got steamrolled. That’ll teach me to fade all-time highs. Had I kept my runner, it would have earned 10 handles without even looking back. I know—I’m really good at hindsight trading.
While my future’s game is of the little league variety, my stock swinging game is clipping away with major league win rates and profitability BUILT IN. Mostly everything won today, but ANGI and GS were both solid con #timestamp for the good people of iBC.
I did quite a bit of transacting today, let’s run through it quickly yes?
I added to my GS long early on, and then later sold it when we neared the 155 target my plan called for.
The remaining long in BBRY was closed at break even, after squeezing some profits out of this turnip yesterday. Blackberry is a big, stupid, Canadian turnip.
I grabbed OptionAddict’s coattails via JOEZ. It’s not nearly as homo as putting ones hand in another man’s jean pocket.
I scaled a little bit of ANGI off. Why not take 5 percent before your catalyst? I still like it into tomorrow’s housing stats.
HAIN was bought into the bell, as it flagged along into the final hour of trade. My order was followed by a little squeeze which gave the daily chart a lovely look.
All this shuffling took my cash down to 40 percent. I’m standing atop the mountain on a small piece of rock, being propelled higher by liquid hot magma. This mountain is in fact, a volcano.
Today I’m getting those butterflies in my stomach that ZenHunter spoke on over the weekend. They come from following your method and seeing it work. I keep a tight schedule now, nothing unbreakable, of course, but guidelines to keep me in the zone while there’s action.
Look at the financials. They’re not as overextended as the rest of the market. That’s why I’m back in Goldman. The inverse head and shoulders is a bonus and it allows us to build context into the play. It doesn’t matter if the market conforms to the chart setup. What matters is your ability to use this context to frame the position of other participants and how the live action is treating them.
Like when we say BBQ the shorts—it’s because you know they’re leaning on a major level, like GS $150.00. Today, they defended the level with decent tenacity. Their tenacity was overkill, if I may be so bold. Much like the last fight of an old tiger, they may realize their days are numbered.
These behemoth large cap stocks need a supportive overall market more than the crack rock that worked so well today, so be cognizant that playing GS means possibly having to ride that out. But once you’re prepared for that, you can play the inverse head and shoulder pattern accordingly.
I cut that HDGE position this morning. It felt good to dig that 12 percent losing thorn out of my side.
Other tickers of interest are current longs: ANGI, BBRY, FB, AAPL, RGR, and CREE
Other tickers of interest I’m stalking: INVN, ELNK, F, LYTS, and RH
I own SAM and AWK too, but they’re not of interest if you catch my drift.
Cash was a little above 50 percent into the bell. MORE I WANT MOAR.
Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:50pm ESTComments Off on UPDATE: Drinking From Goldman’s Cup
The ramp the market has experienced in shares of Goldman Sachs has no doubt been a contributing factor to the improved sentiment of our market. They were early to the party and have been steady appreciating a solid six months after dropping several no-so-subtle technical clues. In tones of near disbelief (I hear tones through twitter) someone commented, “Their MBS business is picking up.”
I’ve been in nearly the entire duration of this move, including a table pounding. With that in mind, and appreciating anyone who has read the scrolls housed in iBankCoin’s poorly lit halls, I want to update the cup-and-handle swing trade.
The cup and handle is a measured move from the lip of the cup to its bottom. Don’t sweat pennies, the move measures thirty five dollars giving us an ultimate upside target of $160 BEHOLD:
Am I sitting here, sipping gingerly from the cup of the Sach [sic] telling you price will go to one sixty? MmMm, No.
If I could change one thing I’ve done during this trade it would be selling my shares prior to their most recent earnings. I missed around 2% of the upside that day, but I bought right back in the next AM so I feel pretty good overall. But here we are, having ripped and held overbought levels for some time. This current move may have more gas in the tank, but to my eye not much. I’m going to continue to move slow with this stock, making the market take me out, but I am considering getting very light in the name and positioning for a pullback. Perhaps size it down to something relative the to the position I initiated in CREE today.
It’s still important to keep the final target of the cup-and-handle in our minds, especially since it aligns with an interesting level in price action. The bulls completing this advance, and the time it takes is an important piece of market context.