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Tag Archives: $FXY

The Normal Day

It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but.  In fact, they are rather rare.

And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points.  A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session.  It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.

That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week.  Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.

Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.

I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture.  AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space.  I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer.  Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5th earnings.  Then they will start making mistakes.

The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities.  December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday.  I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.

I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell.  If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain.  It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.

I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:

GOGO, RVLT, BALT, YELP, and CREE

These are all full size positions.  As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness.  It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.

My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:

AMBA, AAPL, PPC, LO, and TSLA

Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high.  Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain.  Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye.  Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil.  The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology.  If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny.  If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established.  The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices.  What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price.  This will scare most of you.  But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.

I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks.  These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:

F, FXY, ONVO, TWTR, MJNA, and O

I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA.  Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding.  It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.

ONVO needs to die for a while.  It trades poorly.  I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.

TWTR is another name I will hold until zero.  I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it?  One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on.  Therefore I wait.

This post has gone on far too long.  These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them.  Let’s see how they perform this week.

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1800 in Sight

1800_2

Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:

AMBA, PPC, AAPL, GOGO, RVLT, TSLA, LO, YGE, WLT, SFM, BALT, CREE, F, ONVO, FXY, TWTR, MJNA, and O

Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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I Trust My Money to Good Stocks: You Should Too

Ladies, gentlemen, please…allow me a moment to address the market.

You may not make it down to the Raul blog often, but I reside rather gingerly on the front page of iBankCoin.  I know that my continued existence in these hallowed halls amongst the finest strangers the internet has to offer depends on one very important matter: banking coin at criminal rates.

After exhibiting complacency two weeks ago Friday I have been on the receiving end of a severe bludgeoning via shares of PPC due to a salmonella scare.  I regret to inform you I was forced out of this position today and took a large loss.  Let’s talk about large losses.

This was a ten percent position and I stopped out at twelve and a half percent.  Math:

0.1*0.12=0.012

I lost 1.2% of my account value.  Part of me wanted to ride the stock into earnings for the glory.  I envisioned myself riding into town on a chicken-drawn chariot with plebs laying olive branches on the street.  Upon reaching to town square I would be handed the ceremonial staff to perform a blessing of the populares, restoring balance to the social classes.

But in a rather stoic manner I cut the shares loose.  Because the truth is public perception is fickle.  Many of you are simple, as am I, and lack the resources or time to give a company a full fundamental shake.  I know inputs to making chicken meat are down across the board, but so does anyone else who analysis this company.  Elon Musk set a new standard with his quick assessment and public response to the Model S fire and now I expect the same from all companies.  I get Old Wall Street silence instead.  So PPC and its shareholders can go fly a kite for all I care and I’m back in the sewers, hungry as ever.

I cut LEDS too.  Perhaps the critics were fiddling with their catalytic converters when I scaled 10% profits one day into my campaign.  That would justify tossing tomatoes in my direction when I cut my net position for a scratch.

Finally, I cut SCTY.  Let’s say you love bath salts but all you can find on sale is old fashioned Mexican speedball.  You decide something is better than nothing and in your constant urge for instant gratification you gobble like ten Mexican speedballs.  But since you want that bath-salt-bug-eyed rage fueling your body while you chew arms off hobos, you find the speed only providing an uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach.  That’s why I cut SCTY for a 3.4% loss.

My final move was buying a modest allotment of AMBA shares.  Morgan Stanly flip flops and the investment community dumps Ambarella?  GMAFB.  Well actually, you did give me a break because this was an opportunity to get back on board stock in a great company.  I liked it at 22, why wouldn’t I love it at 20?  I am a buyer of further weakness.

Now I have 22% cash power to buy some blood and a stable of stocks fit for an entrepreneur.  Largest-to-smallest friends, largest-to-smallest like always:

GOGO (huge), LO (+15% what?), ONVO, WLT (Walter), RVLT (a love/hate), AMBA (SAIL!), SFM, CREE, SLW, F, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and the big O

That is a hot look.  I like this basket of stocks.  I have a few names I want to add to the pot to get back to full long exposure but I am content to ride into tomorrow’s spooky trade with some cashish. The Fly’s ALJ has the look, FB is making ATH after hours, and YELP is at a slight discount.

FINALLY: YOU SHOULD COME INSIDE 12631.  There is a free trial tomorrow and Friday ONLY.  I do my best work in there with little-to-no shenanigans.  I would love to see some of my twitter buddies in there.  The password for the free trial will be released at midnight, so you vampires can come inside tonight and kick some ideas around and us normal folk will see you bright and early.

http://youtu.be/c-P5GpkPrk4

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Halloween Candy Only Market

There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:

ONVO, PPC, RVLT, USO, LO, WLT, GOGO, ADHD, CREE, WDAY, SLW, F, LEDS, FXY, IMMR, MJNA, and O

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YGE is The Bruce Lee of Solar Stocks and Other Market Observations

The Yen walked down the stairs lockstep with the SPY rise, like mirrors of one another—starting around lunchtime, which pleases me.

Anytime I trade counter-trend, taking a high quality and back tested setup, and I extract money from the market, I feel like I’m getting away with a sophisticated robbery.  I did it to EXK last week and over the last few weeks I’ve done the same long the Japanese Yen.  Now I’m out and a heavy hand is walking the currency lower.  This gives today’s move a carry feel and suggest we need to keep the carry not in the forefront but more so the back burner of our mind as we progress.

Solar stocks are getting the back ally beat down like they were flashing too much swag in the hood, which they were.  However, YGE is Bruce Lee, water, and deflected the aggressive bear bludgeons with finesse. They put out positive guidance before the bell that had everyone a bit taken aback  because they suggested shipments growth was “significantly better” than expected.  So they’re not jawboning about their FUCKING LEADS, like FSLR, they’re talking shipped product.  They’re shipping that Hanna Montana like Rick Ross, from the Phantom.

RVLT is cooling off a bit post earnings and I’m sitting here wondering if I’m about to get AMBA’d aka ambushed by sellers.  So I’m holding back the additional capital I intend to commit to this name.  But rest assured, I intend to own many more shares of RVLT before the year is through.  CREE on the other hand continues to rise, wall of worrying the old men on the sideline.  In other LED news, RBCN spiked lower after reporting unimpressive revenues but the dip was bought.

My only action today was to take a small position in USU.  I’m playing hot potato with a nuke in this name, but I figure I hate solar so much I might as well diversify my energy holdings.

Here’s my book of energy-type stocks, largest to smallest:

YGE, USU, KWK, BPZ

Goldman caught a nasty fade into the bell, I’m not sure how I feel about it, obviously I would have preferred some follow through since it’s my largest holding.  We’re practically back to my cost basis and all I have to show for it is the lint in my pocket as no scales were taken.

For in the futures I took one scalp, to the short side, in the middle of that big afternoon move higher.  I earned a modest $62.50.

My swing book made almost a percent today.  At one point it was up nearly 2 percent.  Cash level is 25 percent.

http://youtu.be/Gf4QSFK1dRE

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ARE YOU WORKING YOUR WISHLISTS?

You know I am.  Today’s weakness is a good opportunity to look at your favorite names, the real winners, the ones that got away from you, the kippers, the big salamis, and draw out some risk profiles.

So far I’ve bought GS and RVLT.

I’m considering adding to my existing CREE repertoire, I will do so, slowly.

Remember AWK?  A blast form the past…I have my eyes on some for my slow money.

I sold off my FXY long, a pseudo hedge of sorts.  All the profits I had in the name could literally vanish with five or six words from SHINTZO ABE.  No thank you, I’ll talk my payday and move on.

I could be seen in the globex market shorting the $ES_F early on, it went well.

RAUL IS ALL OVER THE FINANCIAL WEBS, A FAST MOVING GHOST OF SORTS.

Cash levels have been reduced to a more reasonable 30 percent, which I’m eager to deploy into further weakness.

Think Zillow.

http://youtu.be/inqfLNb9zQQ

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BOOK INTO THE BELL

Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:

AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O

Cashish, it’s high, about 50%

TOP PICK: I WISH I HAD ZILLOW DAMN!

I like END the best baby

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That Was Fast

And just like that I’m managing a -10% position.  It’s 2/3 size too, dragging my book down nearly a full percentage.  I’m talking about none other than action camera extraordinaire Ambarella, Inc.

“It just happened so fast.” – Famous last words.

Seriously though, this is what happens when you’re caught in a momentum downdraft.  There were too many weak hands in this name apparently.  Perhaps the weak hands still exist, flailing around, in need of correction.

I’ll have you know I’ve been corrected my entire life.  My 4th grade teacher would slap my hands with a yard stick for disrupting Bible studies.  Even with carbon dating, I could never convince her dinosaurs existed.

“God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test our faith in Jesus.”  Right…may I have another slice of Jesus body?  I’m starving.

With AMBA, we’re in an IPO environment and the company creates camera components.  It’s not some social concept that curious minds gather around and debate where the money comes from.  IT COMES FROM SELLING PRODUCT.  There ought to be some buyers down here, perhaps at my final buying tranche.

I’ve clearly built into the name too soon, enticed by the virgin blood.  I’m in bed with the name now, prepared to deploy more capital between $15.50 – $14.25.

TPX went on a rally today, still my largest position, and perhaps I should just cut my losses at this point, down a mere 10 percent.  Perhaps, but the chart resembles bracketed trade, ranging from 35 – 50 so the greater risk at this very moment is to the downside.  That is, if my bracket theory is correct.

FaceBook is really bringing some heat to the market.  It’s exciting to see.

I had quite the run on GTAT today, but I’ve already sold most of it, booking a cool 6 percent in profits.  I’ll always grab that bread when it’s offered.  I still hold a runner that wants more, more, more.

I’ve held AIXG for so long, since June, and it has done NOTHING.  HOWEVER, it has done nothing.  All the while Europe is sucking, including Aixtron’s brethren from another reverend Deutsche Bank whiffing on earnings.  So perhaps any updraft will lift this name with great vengeance and furious anger?  I’ll stick around a bit longer.  This is my German LED play, BTW.

I have several other small positions, 25% cash, and a 10% FXY position as we ride into a very headline heavy day tomorrow.  I suppose I’m feeling lucky.

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