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OPEN THE GATE!

My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below.  Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.

Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.

I’m brooding so hard right now.  But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!?  Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it.  It’s mine, I spend it.”

Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.

The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action.  It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context.  So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts.  Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.

I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.

Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more.  They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late.  When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything.  I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it.  A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD.  The next day it makes an even BIGGER move.  Pair that with the following bullet points:

1.) http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/07/10/a-titanic-shift-in-the-oil-markets-are-underway/

“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”

2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.

I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:

I took my first scale in O.  You have to get paid when the market pays you.  Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.

I took my first scale on TPX.  It’s still my largest position and top pick.  Next target is $50.

I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.

I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):

TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE

I want some EXK too, call it position overload.  I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.

EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WAR

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Charts Are a Bit “Meh” Until They ARE NOT!

Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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Patriot Rally

Today’s follow through atop yesterday’s move atop last week’s move HIGHER is fueled by pure patriotism.  As I type, the index futures are “giving it up” but I don’t care.  You may in fact be hard up to find a bull who cares, because “the good stocks” are higher; stocks like Fords (sic), Cree, and Apple.

The long wick on XLF and all the jitters it produced have to this point been swept aside, and the financials are behaving rather constructive.

REITS are defying bearish setups, TLT is up, and so is our dollar.  Keep in mind, our jungle informant, deep in the Forex bush, is expecting an ambush on the dollar soon.  Always keep an open ear to Kong.

Pincus over at ZNGA decided he wants his net worth to appreciate, so he replaced himself.  In perhaps the best decision of his life, he hijacked Microsoft’s head of Xbox, brilliant.  I’m constructive on ZNGA henceforth, and will patiently tan my body and plan my entry.  I will likely pepper myself in in 1/2s, 1/3s, or ¼’s due to the nature of ZNGA shares.

My only actions thus far have been tossing fish in the futures, making lunch monies, and scaling off some AAPL shares as we rocketed into the 33ema @ Jerry Garcia aka $420.

I still want SHLD, and I thought your bastards may have beat me to it, but here it comes, right to mama.

ANGI needs to go soon or it’s out, I want to keep my holdings to 12 and this one is, how do you say?  Stalling.

As we enter afternoon trading, the question is, do the bears really want to be short into the kickass fourth of July?  Cover your shares, or face a barrage of whirly birds, mortars, and wolf packs.

Bonus: What’s your favorite firework?  Let me know in the comments below.  I’m going shopping.

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1 for 6

June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

pilot

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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The Market Feels Heavy

Yet the sellers can’t gain traction.  Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out.  The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress.  All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.

Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today.  I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues.  The weekly chart suggests it could.

I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations.  I hate when a house goes pending, BTW.  When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes.  This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up.  For now, I’m ½ size.

These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry.  So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary.  The same goes for TPX.  This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX.  You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.

We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd.  Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July?  If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.

I’m still in FB, did you know that?  I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good.  This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives.  Note: I don’t do FB.

Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names.  I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:

AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION

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Foolish Bond (Bag) Holders

Akroyd-Dr-Djpg

The degree to which I care about bond holders and their draconian rights is so low, I must defy them.  It’s all bullshit, I’m not buying bonds, are you?   Don’t answer that.  I’ll buy bonds when all you rusty bastards die and I get a real interest rate.  In the meantime, prepare to get Dr. Detroit-ed.

Bear with me, I have a point but I forgot to eat today.  Take your shoes off and let me explain something to you.

Every summer like clockwork something matters.  Alas!  Something matters guys, let’s get on the teevee and talk about it.  Pity many of you subject yourselves to such hubris.  Pundits know as much about these markets as my cat.  Unlike my cat, their reflexes are slow, their climbing abilities poor.

I key off the S&P.  Call me old fashioned, but I’m from the school of thought that the most traded financial instrument in the world leaves a unique footprint in the financial world, one we can derive much from.   I brought 1579.25 – 1580.25 to your attention this morning, good people of iBankCoin, because it displayed significant price behavior and a curious profile footprint.

Then I took to twitter, which is a medium I enjoy, it fits my fringe lifestyle.  And all day I stammered on about this level like a crack head:

“Building acceptance, building acceptance, future, future, way of the future.”

I would unfollow me, I don’t know how anyone stands it.  Nevertheless, the level was our tell on the day.  We’re back inside a very significant value area and the market’s next move from here will be the tell going forward.

Bottom Line because food: we have clear guideposts to the next market move, I’m betting it’s higher, there’s a bullshit scare every summer, and Dan Aykroyd’s humor didn’t make sense to me until like a week ago.

Top picks: F, FB, YGE

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Morning Trade Report

I cut DECK early, booking a small loss, it appears I sold near the LOD.  Water under the bridge, the stock is chopping about.

I took 8 trades in the $ES_F, 6 winners and a solid green day.  I’m calling it a day in the futures unless we see a major development.  I like the idea of stringing two winning days together and I don’t want to blow it.  Two trades were taken outside the plan, one was a scratch and one was buying the VAL I highlighted this morning which was my second best win of the day.

We’re in a major balance zone.  I’m looking at big names like GS and F which had contra strength early on, and just took a big fade.  I want to see how participants react/receive this fade.

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Cliché April Foolery

Perhaps it’s the crystal crack meth I’m holding in my portfolio, and the fact that each of them is a loser, but what looks like minor damage on the S&P has my portfolio down 1.5 percent today.  If I was heavy long, sure, that makes sense, but with cash over 50 percent it comes as a bit of a surprise.  It’s like oh hello April, I see you’re coming in like a lion.

So I’ve been forced to take two losses today; first I cut Yelp, and this afternoon Ford.  Here’s the gist, at this juncture, I’m not loosening risk and letting setups work.  Ford very well could turn around this week, but the daily chart is sloppy, and not something I’m lending patience to right now.

Yelp plum fell on its face, as did most of the social media space. To hold even a trace would be a disgrace. I want only the ace. I want the ace.

My holdings now are (by size) CMG, ANGI, AIG, ZNGA, CREE, and old pokey aka AWK.

We could talk about each and what they’re doing, but you have charts yes?  You see much of what I do, no?

Here’s my bottom line: there’s lots of POMO on tap this month.  It’s a strange environment.  As we wind down into the close, we’re getting a b-shaped profile, suggesting long liquation and not much more.  The sellers made progress on many individual charts, but they haven’t taken the big board yet.  Moreover they haven’t controlled the big board all year.  However, this is a new quarter, a page turn if you will.  Therefore we all need to stay vigilant.  Like, why the hell is the Yen so strong today?  Just be cognizant of the environment.  I’m a bit unsure, hence my huge cash.

Be well.

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Another Day of Indecision

We continue to hover around the highs after a brief overnight scare of the European variety.  Unlike the super intelligent bulls and bears who are confident on their directional conviction, I feel like a dark pool of water, waiting for the river to take me away.

I’ve embraced this uncertainty with a high cash position, currently hovering near 40 percent.  I also put on a hedge Friday, in $SDS, it was a 15 percent position that I’ve taken down to 10 percent.  I find hedges work best when they’re cashed out as soon as they’re in the money.  Otherwise they just sort of evaporate away and then they’re an anchor in the port when the market sets sail.

I sold out of CCJ and ANGI, both winners.  I sold the former because the chart pattern is sloppy and I don’t want to be in sloppy charts in an indecisive-frothy market.  ANGI was sold to lock in the huge gain and free up some money to rotate into my new position.  What’s my new position?

It’s Ford!  ‘merica

I like how quickly the stock rebounded this morning and where price currently resides on the daily chart.  I have a few other names I’m stalking, but nothing screams ‘buy me’ like they were the last few months.  Many setups are on pullback #3, which has the lower probability of success.  Therefore I have to either pass on the setups, or apply a tighter risk management either through a tight stop or smaller position size.

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