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Tag Archives: $ESF

There Is Our Seller

Just in time at 1754 our seller showed up.  Put them on there heels and here they are.  Either they hold on or get rolled on.

Keep an eye on this 10 am swing high:


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The Break Is Your Context Today

Strong earnings from the likes of MSFT and AMZN propelled the NASDAQ higher in the afterhours session yesterday while the S&P mostly consolidated and balanced.

We are again being presented with the concept of consolidation on the S&P where it can be clearly seen we have a confluence of buying and selling—often referred to as a flag or pennant.  Sustaining such a formation up at all-time highs supports the idea of a performance chase into the end of the year.

Of course the flipside is sellers win out, and do so quite aggressively, pressing the market lower and leaving the chasers with their heads underwater.

However there is no reason fret such an outcome because we can see the relevant price lines and adjust our stance accordingly.  I have highlighted price areas I consider significant in measuring the success of each party to the auction and also a few scenarios to help form your contextual stance on the following market profile charts:


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The Thick of The Auction

The market found some buyers overnight and pressed over 1750 for a bit before settling a bit lower.  The action left a gap below and it will be interesting to see how the sellers manage to fill the gap.

I have highlighted levels I find very interesting at this juncture and also a few relevant scenarios to guide your contextual feel in the following market profile charts:


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Signs of Excess

There were a few clues in the market profile print yesterday that could have clued you in to the potential for a down day to follow.  The first was an excess high or selling tail printed at the top of the profile.  This is represented by the single prints of TPO along the top of the profile.  The prints show an aggressive seller reacting to prices deemed too rich.

The second clue was the gap that remained unfilled during our regular trading sessions.  A gap-and-go type of trade rarely occurs at such elevated levels.  Instead they tend to occur as a sudden burst of order flow breaks us from a long period of consolidation.

The gap down filled overnight and now we get to see if buyers are capable of filling this morning’s gap above to 1749.50.  When we start getting into an environment where overnight moves increase in size, it makes sense to raise your guard and consider either hedging or elevating cash levels.

I have highlighted price levels of opportunity and also a few scenarios on the following market profile charts:


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Understanding Price Movement

The markets did very little overnight and continue to hold these elevated levels with a modicum of rotation.  This tight range is much like the base of a lamp where the more narrow it is, the easier it is to tip the lamp over.

Therefore we should define some reference points where the market may spill over in either direction.  Daily highs and lows are a simple measure of balance disruption and effective, but I like to envision what a balanced profile shape would be.  That way I can observe if moves away from value are normal parts of the current auction or an attempt by price to explore elsewhere.

I have drawn a few scenarios out and highlighted prices of opportunity on the following market profile charts:


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View from The Summit

The S&P futures traded in a tight and balanced range overnight, holding the high water mark levels established Friday afternoon.  Last week’s action was so dynamic it left behind areas of poor auction.  The market wasted little time climbing to these highs and as a result we do not have a strong foundation of auctions below.

The weekend brought nothing deemed significant enough to re-price the markets, so we can interpret the early AM moves relative to our current reference point to gauge the early-week conviction of market participants.

To my eye it appears less will without question be more in today’s environment as price action looks choppy and quiet.

I have highlighted a few scenarios and levels of opportunity on the following market profile charts:



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Sniffing Out a Big Seller

ES_MarketProfile_10172013Quiet markets overnight mostly.  The Euro dollar made a strong move overnight which is interesting because it has been resting at a multiyear bracket high.  It will be interesting to see if this currency’s strength has any correlative effects on US equities.

Overnight profiles in the /ES and /NQ suggest a relatively balanced trade suggesting any news flow overnight was either expected or non-material or never happened at all.  We are seeing a bit of selling creep onto the tape as the USA comes online, and it will be interesting to see if the sellers can gain any traction at these elevated index levels.

Yesterday we printed at poor high at 1717 which clues us in we may see higher prices in the near-term.  We also saw a huge flow of aggressive buying into the closing bell get absorbed with ease by a passive seller.  This suggests the power is starting the wean as this bull presses on.

I have highlighted a control zone today on the profile and I think whichever party best dictates price around this area and is able to press from this area will gain control today.  I also highlighted a few other key price levels and potential scenarios on the following market profile charts:


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