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Tag Archives: $ES_F $SPY

Sellers Still in Command

The correction lower showed early signs of stabilization overnight by balancing out amidst weak Asian markets.  The sellers however still hold the upper hand in the current environment, especially given the pace with which we distributed lower.  Less active participants who bought the #NoTaper headline may be considering trying to reduce exposure on any upward move which makes them whole.

As the USA comes online, I am already seeing a bit of sell flow creep onto the tape.  It will be interesting to see if early selling is enough to press through the overnight low at 1689.50.  Thus far they have not been able to breach this level, which was also the low of yesterday’s cash session.  A break could trigger sell stops and enough order flow to push to 1687 and if price accelerates 1684.25.  I am suggesting that the order flow from taking out the lows could be a temporary phenomena and a buying opportunity.  However if these levels do not hold we need to be very keen on 1681.50 which is a huge value area high dating back to 09/11 before the gap up.

On the upside, price needs to sustain above 1693.50 to show acceptance of yesterday’s value instead of value continuing to migrate lower in search of balance.  That would be the first accomplishment.  Next would be trading above 1698.50 which could trigger a squeeze.

I’ve highlighted most of these levels and drawn on some scenarios on the following market profile charts:


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Trader Talk: Day Trading The Futures Report

I have mixed feelings about blasting off my index entries to the people of the internet.  Typically I’m entering a pullback in the direction of the trend.  As such, these trades tend to develop very rapidly.  My average winning trade lasts under 10 minutes because I’m always scaling out at about 1.25 – 2 handles profit.  If I keep a runner it’s because the rally isn’t stopping which we haven’t seen in quite a while.

Therefore the jabs hardly merit a tweet burst.

I took two trades in the /ES today, the first went fantastically well, had 100% plan compliance, and provided instant gratification.  I bottom ticked the market, using my pregame analysis.  It was gangsta.  I took 1.5 handles in profit.

My second trade had a lower compliance and this all became clear once I ran through The Stop Method©The following errors occurred:

We already reached my plans daily upside target of 1694 to the tick.

The dip was fast and furious

I gun jumped, getting long ahead of my signal

My picture, in fact, never triggered, so I was shooting from the hip

My trade entry was under 50% compliance with the plan.  It makes sense it lost money.

It one ticked higher, then suplexed me to the ground for two handles.

I Stopped, scored my low compliance, targeted logical price levels, observed the lack of a trend, and patiently ended my day.

I didn’t throw good money after bad.  I also didn’t flip short, which could have made money, but it’s not a setup I’ve worked out in my back testing homework.

I like the stop method because it forces me to assess the situation and the plan.  This is a perfect example of how only trading the plan would have resulted in a green day, instead of a red one.

In other news, damn, that morning trading report is boss.  I read it like someone else wrote it because I’m in such a calm state when I write it compared to my hectic mind during the day.  I may start printing it and putting it under my keyboard for constant reference.

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Still Learning When to Fold’em

I had a very strong trading session early on, first selling the pop in the market when the durable goods order came in better than expected and earning four handles.  Then I scalped a little bounce four 1.5 handles, then another short earning 1.5 handles.

Then there was a small loss trying long again.

Then another win on the short side, 1.5 handles.

Then three failed attempts at another short when I noted yesterday’s low holding.  The market lost its structure, buyers were holding their levels, yet I was pressing shorts.  I need to avoid this type of trading.  I gave back ¾ of my daily gains going from big ass titties to all that work for peanuts.

Any advice from the experts on how to break such trading habits is appreciated.  Otherwise I have to dig out these trading psychology books and do some introspective over the weekend.

I’m going for a short walk and then addressing these stocks.  It’s bounce mode there could be some long opportunities.

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