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Nothing Has Changed…YET

Geico-CamelsWhat if you had a large data set that said you suck at Wednesdays? It would give a whole new sting to hump day, wouldn’t it? For reasons unbeknownst to me (I have looked over the data with a comb) my will power breaks down and old bad habits creep in by Wednesday resulting in poor trading performance.

And that’s okay because will power is finite. These days I only take the highly qualified trades and only early on. Once my will muscles are stronger I will increase duration.

Nevertheless today is incredibly important in the grand scheme of things because today we make an earnest attempt to find a tradable low. Early this morning we had MBA Mortgage Applications which had a sell, buy, sell reaction affirming the sellers are still in short term control (the number was a bit better than expectations). At 10:30am we have oil/gas inventory stats and the market is working higher from VAL already, constructive. At 2pm we have a Monthly Budget Statement, and most importantly we have the results of the Fed’s Bank Stress tests after market close at 4:30pm.

The short term trend is seller dominated. It started Friday with a motivated move out of balance. Monday price drifted higher but found a sharp responsive seller (responsive relative to Monday’s open, initiative relative to the upper balance, VITAL you understand this). Then yesterday we had a pro gap down and completion-type wave which closed down near the low of the session.

Overnight prices drifted higher on normal volume and range but were unable to reclaim the lowest seller-defended area from yesterday at 4349.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test below the overnight low 4330.75. Just below there at 4326.75 there is a wonderful NVPOC magnet. I will look for signs of responsive buyers here, otherwise we continue lower to test the 2/12 session low gap zone.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold above 4336 and we start working higher. Look for a move above 4349.50 and look for buyers to become initiative above 4353.

Hypo 3 is a quiet digestion of the selling with price holding yesterday’s low 4328.50 and reverting to quiet, two-way trade.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03112015

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The Pros Have Formed a Gap

You won’t come to the Raul blog often and find my crying about wolves. I study the tape, like a psychopath stalker. Its nuances speak to me. We are waking up to a pro gap down this morning.

The overnight session managed to go second sigma range, something it has not done in quite some time. However, the volume behind the move was a bit less compelling. However there is still a half hour of globex to go.

The Greek situation is heating up in Europe where parties are growing frustrated with how much time is being wasted. Likely adding to European frustration is the quirky 3 week window where daylight savings throws them off with our time and markets. The economic calendar is otherwise quiet until tomorrow when we here about mortgage applications, oil inventories, and bank stress test results.

Yesterday we started the week quietly despite closing Friday out with a strong neutral extreme day. The up move in the Nasdaq occurred around 1pm and can be considered news driven, because it was closely associated with the Apple live event. However at the end of the session sellers began piling onto the bid.

The overnight session managed to pushed down through the micro balance we formed from 2/16 to 2/18 before finding responsive buyers. This zone has a compelling VPOC at 4382 which we are currently priced to open upon.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction outside range due to this VPOC. Look for 4372.25 and 4389.50 to contain price early on. Look for buyers to work the range gap up to 4391.75 before finding responsive sellers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to Monday) who step in and leg us lower to target the NVPOC at 4360. That would be a big day

Hypo 2 is we gap and go lower to target the NVPOC at 4360 then the gap down to 4345.75 to retest prior swing high 4343.25.

Hypo 3 is a strong responsive buy full gap fill to 4414.75. It has happened a few times in recent history and requires some serious resources to do so, hence the Pro Gap nomenclature.

Levels:

NQ_MP_03102015

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Holding Up So Far

Nasdaq futures are indicating a gap up on the open after a session which mostly featured selling. In the wake of this normal range and volume session, participants left behind a somewhat weak looking low at 4396.25.

The economic calendar is quiet today so the market will be left to its natural discovery device with the exception of Greek news flow.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Nasdaq went on a strong rally which started early February around 4220. Part of the catalyst was news from Greece. Before this rally we spent several months in a 2-way grind. Here is an interesting look at the forest:

NQ_VP_03092015

Last week we started March with a gap up and strength through Monday. The rest of the week was mixed action which ultimately gave way to selling on Friday. Buyers managed to step in ahead of the mini value area around 4380 last week. Heading into today that zone may behave like a magnet.

My primary expectation this morning is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and press the gap closed to 4406. By doing so they assert their responsiveness and increase the likelihood we continue discovering lower prices. I will look for them to take out overnight low 4396.25 and target the discrete gap down at 4386.25.

Hypo 2 is sellers cannot close the overnight gap and strong buyers take back much of Friday’s selling starting with acceptance above 4414. Buyers will look to target the low end of the value zone above at 4436.

Hypo 3 is we fill the overnight gap down to 4406 and then revert to quiet, two-way trade.

The short term levels I will be operating from are highlighted below:

NQ_MP_03092015

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They Front Loaded March

We started the month of March up near swing high with market trading sideways in the short term. Price went gap up Monday and tested higher before finding responsive sellers, then tested lower yesterday and found responsive buyers. Heading into today, the Nasdaq is slightly positive on the month. Price managed to cut slightly higher than it did lower in the process, likely the case due to its alignment with the higher time frame trend.

Yesterday was a busy day economically and it showed. The Nasdaq was whipping around pretty good yesterday as it digested record builds in oil/gas inventory and the Fed Beige Book. This morning we had Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims out at 8:30am while a Mario Draghi press conference took place.

We also have Factory Orders at 10am and Natural Gas Storage stats at 10:30am. Also at 4:30pm the Fed will release the preliminary results of its 2015 Bank Stress Test.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory to target a gap fill down to 4445.50. If buyers can defend then I will look for a move toward overnight high 4458.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down below 4440 triggering an acceleration lower to take out yesterday’s low 4422 to target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 3 is buyers continue working up above 4458.75 to target the mCLVN at 4465.25 and work above Tuesday’s high 4472.50.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03052015

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WASHOUT

Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03042015

 

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The Calm Before The Storm

The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap.   Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VPMP_03032015

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Time To End The Month

Range and volume are compressed on the globex session despite the GDP data at 8:30am. The data came in a bit stronger than expected which esoterically is a negative occurrence because it may be seen as evidence the economy is ready for Feds to raise rates. Price is flat on the news as we head into cash open with a small gap down.

We have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am, Pending Home sales and the Final U of M Confidence read at 10am.

The market traded sideways with a slight upward skew all week and today is the final day of trade in February. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to close the gap up to 4462.50 and attempt a test above overnight high at 4464.75. Up here I will look for responsive selling back down to the mCVPOC at 4440.

Hypo 2 is we ush lower off the open and take out mCVPOC 4440 opening us up to break the weak low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4417.75.

Hypo 3 is we drive above overnight high and target measured move 4480.

Levels:

NQ_VP_02272015

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The Sideways Correction

Nasdasq futures are about flat as we enter US trade. After printing a neutral day yesterday we spent most of the overnight session drifting higher. This drift took us just above yesterday’s MID to test the volume pocket just below 4450 before finding responsive sellers.

Those responsive sellers starting working ahead of the 8:30am data dump, which included CPI, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims. Overall it was a balanced session with a slight upward drift on normal volume and slightly compressed, but normal range.

Also on the docket today is some Fed repo activity from 9:30-10am, at 10:30 natural gas storage stats, at 11am the Kansas City Fed MFG activity, and at 1pm Fed’s Lockhart is set to speak. We also have GDP stats out tomorrow pre-market.

Our last three day’s overlapping value are just like last week’s Monday-Wednesday. Last week it turned out to be a time-style correction before we legged higher Thursday and Friday. Coming into today, Thursday, we have essentially the same look—three days of overlap atop a rally. The nuance is yesterday’s neutral print.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap fill down to 4437.75. That opens the door to take out ONL 4435 and test the low of our 3-day balance 4427. I will look for responsive buyers to defend and trade up through the ONH 448.75 air pocket to 4450 to target a new swing high 4461

Hypo 2 buyers cannot defend 4427 then we continue lower to target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and stretch to 4413 then 4399.50.

Hypo 3 is we stick inside the 3 day balance and continue sideways between 4450 and 4430.

Levels can be seen below:

NQ_VP_02262015

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Another Yellen Talk on Tap

Nasdaq futures drifted lower, down into the mid of yesterday on abnormally low volume and range. There seems to be little interest in conducting business during globex with the looming Yellen discussions and perhaps Friday’s GDP data on the horizon.

Today, as I mentioned above, Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying for a second day. Today she meets with the Financial Services Committee at 10am. We halso have month-over-month new home sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

The trend continued yesterday, intermediate term, where buyers are in control. The last few days have been buyer controlled. Yesterday we managed to briefly take out the prior session’s low 4429.75 before finding responsive buyers who took us to new swing high prices.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction in range to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4450.25. From there I will see if buyers can take out yesterday high 4455.75. Above there I will look for signs of responsive selling.

Hypo 2 is seller push down through yesterday’s VAL 4442 to probe yesterday’s session low. Look for responsive buyers around 4430.

Hypo 3 is drive down, take out 4430 and target 4422.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_02252015

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Busy Tuesday Morning

The Nasdaq futures aren’t signaling we’re in store for a busy Tuesday, what with range and volume compressed well-below normal. But perhaps they are. Perhaps the volume and range are so abnormally low because everyone waits with bated breath to hear what The Fed Chair Yellen has to say both today and tomorrow. First she will talk with the US Senate at 10am. Atop this discussion we have Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed MFG at 10am.

For all intents and purposes, the market doesn’t open until 10am.

Overnights low range pushed back to the 50% mid of the afternoon ramp before finding responsive buyers. Yesterday we printed a normal variation day with a small range extension up. The most prominent feature of yesterday’s session was a late-afternoon push which traversed nearly the entire range to close us out near the high of the session.

Intermediate term the Nasdaq is trading up at swing highs after a multi-month neutral consolidation. This timeframe is bullish.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for balanced, 2-way chop. I will look for buyers to defend yesterday’s value area low 4436.25-35.25 and then make a push to test swing high 4449.25 and in particular the mezzo century figure 4450.

Hypo 2 is sellers accelerate down through yesterday’s VAL 4436.25-35.25 and push through yesterday’s low 4429.75. In this instance I will look for responsive buyers down at 4423-22.25 area. If they do not show then sellers will target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and perhaps overshoot down to 4413 LVN.

Hypo 3 is a strong push higher up through 4450 to continue the discovery process up.

Key levels can be seen below:

NQ_MPVP_02242015

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